Bitcoin (BTC) is Entering a Critical Phase as Every Economic Statistic Can Reshuffle the Cards

In the unstable world of cryptos, every economic statistic can reshuffle the cards. After a jump of more than 10 % in one week, bitcoin is entering a critical phase.

In the inherently unstable world of cryptos, every economic statistic can shuffle the cards. After a noteworthy 10 % rally in one week, bitcoin is entering a critical phase with upcoming releases in the United States (inflation, employment, industry) promising to reshape market sentiment.

In a climate already fragile following April’s turmoil, the slightest surprise could reignite volatility or extend consolidation. This week promises to be decisive for BTC's trajectory and investor appetite.

The rally drivers : between massive buying and ETF momentum

After several weeks of volatility, bitcoin has started a strong rebound, driven by a series of positive announcements on the institutional flow front.

Bitcoin's rise could falter if spot buying volumes sharply decrease.

Such a situation could highlight how much the recent ascent is related to massive purchases on the spot market. Among the identified catalysts are notably :

These elements allowed bitcoin to reach 95,700 dollars, reconnecting with its highest levels in several weeks.

The rise relied on an exceptionally favorable environment, marked by a quiet week on the crypto news front and a strong renewed interest in risky assets. However, a quiet week on the crypto news front could result in reduced spot demand.

In the absence of new positive catalysts or a continuation of the BTC ETF narrative, buying pressure could weaken, exposing bitcoin to critical tests below 93,000 dollars.

The impact of US economic data : between caution and consolidation

While bitcoin is currently trading in a tight range from 93,000 to 95,500 dollars, attention is now focused on a series of decisive macroeconomic releases for the immediate evolution of the market.

Starting April 29, investors will scrutinize the JOLTS report, which will measure job openings and hiring trends in the United States. This data could provide “an insight into how the trade war and tariffs led by the United States are digested by the labor market”, a key element in assessing economic strength.

The next day, the release of the Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, will be particularly watched to gauge the future trajectory of US monetary policy.

Then, on May 1st, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will add another layer of information on the state of the already fragile US industrial economy due to trade tensions. Markets could react negatively if the report shows further deterioration of the ISM PMI, reflecting the prevailing nervousness.

Finally, the official employment report, expected on May 2, could confirm or disprove the thesis of a marked economic slowdown. If these indicators disappoint, they would reinforce investors' cautious trend, triggering a partial disengagement from risky assets like bitcoin.

Faced with this high-risk sequence, bitcoin could continue to consolidate around its current levels unless there is a favorable surprise in the economic data. In case of negative confirmations, the initiated bullish momentum could be seriously compromised, making way for increased volatility. Conversely, better figures than expected could provide a breath of fresh air to the market, allowing for a new test of 95,700 dollars or more.

Maximize your Cointribune experience with our "Read to Earn" program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.

Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. J'ai à coeur de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.