Aptos (APT) Struggles Under Persistent Selling Pressure, Token Unlocks May Exacerbate Downside

Aptos (APT) has struggled with steady selling pressure over the past two months, and recent token unlock events may exacerbate these challenges.

Aptos (APT) has faced persistent selling pressure over the past two months, and recent token unlock events may amplify these challenges. With increasing unlocks and panicked sentiment in the market, APT could encounter more downside in the near future.

Aptos Recently Tested a Key Support Level

Looking at the 1-week Aptos price chart, we can see that the token has recently tested a key support level around $5, which also coincides with a psychological price point. While a short-term bounce is possible from this support level, the main question is whether this bounce can lead to a full trend reversal or if it’s merely a temporary respite before the downtrend resumes.

If we zoom out to the 1-month Aptos price chart, we can see that the token lost its bullish order block just above the $11 level in mid-December 2024, shifting the market structure to a bearish bias. The attempts made by buyers to recover have failed, with each rally quickly being met by selling pressure.

The OBV chart also highlights that selling pressure has consistently outpaced buying, further confirming the overall bearish sentiment. Even during recent recoveries, the price movements have resembled liquidity grabs rather than genuine upward trends, adding to market uncertainty and making any upward price action short-lived.

Furthermore, Aptos has shown a notable lack of relative strength compared to Bitcoin (BTC). While Bitcoin has appreciated by 78% since last August, Aptos has only increased by 11.87%. This disparity in performance is sapping the conviction of bulls, making it more difficult for the token to stage a meaningful recovery.

From a technical perspective, the $5-level is seen as a critical support area for Aptos. This level marks the beginning of a strong rally from August 2024, and if APT manages to stay above it, a temporary bounce could be expected. The $5.5 liquidity cluster, which can be identified on the 1-week heatmap, is a likely candidate for a short-term bullish reversal.

For swing traders, they may look to trade the bounce from the $5.34-$5.5 range, hoping to push the price toward $6.30. However, it’s important to take profits quickly, considering the current market sentiment that remains predominantly altcoin-averse. With the broader market still in uncertainty, aggressive profit-taking strategies are prudent for short-term traders.

One of the key challenges for Aptos holders is the ongoing token unlock process. According to CoinMarketCap, 50% of Aptos’ total supply is still locked, meaning that there is a significant amount of tokens yet to be released into the market. As these tokens are unlocked, additional selling pressure may drive the price lower, unless demand sees a substantial increase.

Without a significant surge in demand or a favorable “altseason” where altcoins experience broad-based growth, these unlocks could put considerable downward pressure on APT’s price. Holders should be cautious, as the combination of market sentiment and additional unlocks could worsen the situation for APT in the near term.