Is altseason dead? A look at Bitcoin dominance, geopolitical tensions, and Benjamin Cowen's analysis of the crypto market's future.

Altseason on Hold? Bitcoin Dominance and Benjamin Cowen's Perspective

The crypto market is a wild ride, and lately, all eyes have been on Bitcoin. Altseason, the period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin, seems to be perpetually delayed. Let's dive into what's happening, with insights from Benjamin Cowen and a look at Bitcoin's increasing dominance.

Bitcoin's Reign: Dominance Above All

Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) surged past 65% on June 23, 2025, hitting levels not seen since February 2021. This metric reflects Bitcoin's growing share of the total crypto market, signaling that investors are flocking back to the original cryptocurrency. According to TradingView, BTC.D has increased for seven consecutive quarters, underscoring a significant shift in capital flows.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin Dominance is approaching 71%. Historically, when Bitcoin dominance peaks, the altcoin market experiences a major drop. The total altcoin market cap could fall below $700 billion if BTC.D reaches 71%.

Altcoin Season Index: A Grim Outlook

As of June 23, the Altcoin Season Index plummeted to 12, a two-year low. This index, which tracks altcoins' performance against Bitcoin over the past 90 days, needs to hit 75 to indicate a true altseason. The current low score shows continued underperformance of altcoins.

CoinBureau co-founder Nic noted that this is the furthest we've been from altseason in almost a year, if you trust the index. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe mentioned that the index often bottoms in June or July before capital rotates back into altcoins. However, with Bitcoin dominance still on the rise, that shift hasn't materialized yet.

Geopolitical Tensions and Bitcoin Preference

The rise in Bitcoin dominance also coincides with geopolitical tensions. Increased tensions between the U.S. and Iran have led investors to reduce risk, favoring Bitcoin's relative stability over altcoins. This shift in market structure confirms long-term inflows into Bitcoin while altcoin market caps decline.

Benjamin Cowen's 2025 Prediction

Benjamin Cowen believes Bitcoin will continue to gain ground over altcoins. He suggests that altcoins will bleed out to Bitcoin, further delaying the anticipated altseason in 2025. Cowen anticipates a local low for the wider crypto market, led by Bitcoin, around August or September.

Adding another layer to the discussion, Adam Back, co-founder and CEO of Blockstream, sees Bitcoin treasury adoption by public companies as the new altcoin season. He encourages speculators to dump altcoins into Bitcoin or Bitcoin treasuries.

Corporate Bitcoin Adoption: A Silver Lining?

The number of public companies holding Bitcoin has doubled since June 5, accounting for about 3.96% of the total BTC supply. This growing corporate adoption signals institutional interest in Bitcoin as a treasury asset.

While Bitcoin treasury firms present potential shareholder concerns, Back argues they offer a possible path to recover losses from altcoins. Companies like Mercurity Fintech Holding and The Blockchain Group are raising significant funds to establish Bitcoin treasury reserves.

Final Thoughts

So, is altseason dead? Not necessarily. The market is cyclical, and what goes down must eventually come up. But for now, Bitcoin is in the spotlight, driven by dominance, geopolitical factors, and institutional adoption. Keep an eye on the Altcoin Season Index and Benjamin Cowen's analysis, but don't hold your breath for an immediate altcoin surge.

In the meantime, maybe it's time to cozy up with some Bitcoin and enjoy the ride. Who knows, maybe Bitcoin season is the new altseason, after all!