阿尔特赛季死了吗？看看比特币的主导地位，地缘政治紧张局势以及本杰明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）对加密货币市场未来的分析。

Altseason on Hold? Bitcoin Dominance and Benjamin Cowen's Perspective

Altseason暂停？比特币优势和本杰明·考恩的观点

The crypto market is a wild ride, and lately, all eyes have been on Bitcoin. Altseason, the period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin, seems to be perpetually delayed. Let's dive into what's happening, with insights from Benjamin Cowen and a look at Bitcoin's increasing dominance.

加密市场是一个疯狂的旅程，最近，所有人的目光都在比特币上。 Altseason（Altcoins胜过比特币的时期）似乎永远延迟了。让我们深入了解正在发生的事情，并从本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）的见解以及比特币越来越多的统治地位。

Bitcoin's Reign: Dominance Above All

比特币的统治：首先

Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) surged past 65% on June 23, 2025, hitting levels not seen since February 2021. This metric reflects Bitcoin's growing share of the total crypto market, signaling that investors are flocking back to the original cryptocurrency. According to TradingView, BTC.D has increased for seven consecutive quarters, underscoring a significant shift in capital flows.

比特币优势（BTC.D）在2025年6月23日飙升了65％，达到了自2021年2月以来未见水平。该度量标准反映了比特币在总加密货币市场中的份额日益增长，这表明投资者正在涌向原始的加密货币。根据TradingView的数据，BTC.D连续七个季度增加了，这突显了资本流量的重大转移。

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin Dominance is approaching 71%. Historically, when Bitcoin dominance peaks, the altcoin market experiences a major drop. The total altcoin market cap could fall below $700 billion if BTC.D reaches 71%.

加密分析师Rekt Capital指出，比特币优势接近71％。从历史上看，当比特币优势达到顶峰时，山寨币市场会大大下降。如果BTC.D达到71％，总山币市值可能会低于7000亿美元。

Altcoin Season Index: A Grim Outlook

Altcoin季节指数：严峻的前景

As of June 23, the Altcoin Season Index plummeted to 12, a two-year low. This index, which tracks altcoins' performance against Bitcoin over the past 90 days, needs to hit 75 to indicate a true altseason. The current low score shows continued underperformance of altcoins.

截至6月23日，Altcoin赛季指数下降到12年，低于两年。该指数在过去的90天内跟踪Altcoins对比特币的性能，需要达到75次，以表明真正的季后赛。当前的低分表明，山寨币的表现不佳。

CoinBureau co-founder Nic noted that this is the furthest we've been from altseason in almost a year, if you trust the index. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe mentioned that the index often bottoms in June or July before capital rotates back into altcoins. However, with Bitcoin dominance still on the rise, that shift hasn't materialized yet.

Coinbureau联合创始人Nic指出，如果您相信该指数，这是我们将近一年来最远的赛季。分析师Michaëlvan de Poppe提到，该指数通常在6月或7月向下底部，然后资本又回到Altcoins。但是，随着比特币优势仍在上升，这种转变尚未实现。

Geopolitical Tensions and Bitcoin Preference

地缘政治紧张局势和比特币偏好

The rise in Bitcoin dominance also coincides with geopolitical tensions. Increased tensions between the U.S. and Iran have led investors to reduce risk, favoring Bitcoin's relative stability over altcoins. This shift in market structure confirms long-term inflows into Bitcoin while altcoin market caps decline.

比特币优势的上升也与地缘政治紧张局势相吻合。美国和伊朗之间的紧张局势增加导致投资者降低了风险，这有利于比特币的相对稳定性对山寨币的稳定性。这种市场结构的这种转变证实了长期流入比特币，而替补币市值下降。

Benjamin Cowen's 2025 Prediction

本杰明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）的2025年预测

Benjamin Cowen believes Bitcoin will continue to gain ground over altcoins. He suggests that altcoins will bleed out to Bitcoin, further delaying the anticipated altseason in 2025. Cowen anticipates a local low for the wider crypto market, led by Bitcoin, around August or September.

本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）认为，比特币将继续在山寨币上获得立场。他建议，Altcoins会流血到比特币，进一步延迟了2025年预期的Altseason。Cowen预计在八月或9月左右，由比特币领导的更广泛的加密货币市场的本地低点。

Adding another layer to the discussion, Adam Back, co-founder and CEO of Blockstream, sees Bitcoin treasury adoption by public companies as the new altcoin season. He encourages speculators to dump altcoins into Bitcoin or Bitcoin treasuries.

Blockstream的联合创始人兼首席执行官Adam Back将另一层添加到讨论中，将公开公司的比特币财政部收养为新的Altcoin季节。他鼓励投机者将Altcoins转换为比特币或比特币国库。

Corporate Bitcoin Adoption: A Silver Lining?

公司比特币采用：一线希望？

The number of public companies holding Bitcoin has doubled since June 5, accounting for about 3.96% of the total BTC supply. This growing corporate adoption signals institutional interest in Bitcoin as a treasury asset.

自6月5日以来，持有比特币的上市公司数量增加了一倍，约占BTC总供应总额的3.96％。这种越来越多的公司收养信号表明比特币作为国库资产的机构利益。

While Bitcoin treasury firms present potential shareholder concerns, Back argues they offer a possible path to recover losses from altcoins. Companies like Mercurity Fintech Holding and The Blockchain Group are raising significant funds to establish Bitcoin treasury reserves.

尽管比特币国库公司提出了潜在的股东担忧，但后背认为他们为从山寨币中恢复损失提供了可能的途径。像Mercurity Fintech Holding和Blockchain集团这样的公司正在筹集大量资金来建立比特币财政部储备。

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

So, is altseason dead? Not necessarily. The market is cyclical, and what goes down must eventually come up. But for now, Bitcoin is in the spotlight, driven by dominance, geopolitical factors, and institutional adoption. Keep an eye on the Altcoin Season Index and Benjamin Cowen's analysis, but don't hold your breath for an immediate altcoin surge.

那么，阿尔赛季死了吗？未必。市场是周期性的，最终必须出现。但是就目前而言，由比特币引起了胜利，地缘政治因素和机构采用的驱动。请密切关注Altcoin季节指数和本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）的分析，但不要屏住呼吸，以立即激增。

In the meantime, maybe it's time to cozy up with some Bitcoin and enjoy the ride. Who knows, maybe Bitcoin season is the new altseason, after all!

同时，也许是时候让一些比特币舒适并享受这次旅行了。谁知道，毕竟，也许比特币季节是新的季节！