Is Altcoin Season 2025 Around the Corner? Key Indicators Signal a Potential Breakout

Altcoin investors may soon find relief after several years of underperformance. According to a recent analysis by Alphractal, multiple metrics now suggest that the conditions for a new Altcoin Season are forming — and June 2025 could mark a pivotal turning point.

The crypto market has witnessed several interesting developments in recent times, especially within the realm of altcoins. As several market indicators point towards a potential breakout for altcoins in June 2025, new analysis from Alphractal delves into the possibility of “Altcoin Season 2025.”

The analysis begins by introducing the "Altcoin Season Index," a metric that tracks the percentage of altcoins that outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day period. This index provides critical insights into the broader market dynamics. According to historical observations, two distinct scenarios tend to trigger a breakout in altcoins.

The first scenario occurs when the majority of altcoins, specifically 60% or more, move into positive territory against Bitcoin, signaling a sustained period of strength in altcoins relative to the leading cryptocurrency.

The second scenario unfolds when the Altcoin Season Index experiences a breakout from the "Bitcoin-dominant zone," which is typically defined as a range between 20% and 30% of altcoins outperforming Bitcoin. A breakout from this zone signals a significant shift in momentum.

One compelling observation from Alphractal’s data: since 2022, every June has marked the beginning of an Altcoin Season.

With June 2025 now in progress, and the Altcoin Season Index emerging from the BTC-dominant zone, market watchers are on high alert.

“It is still early, but June is also known for starting the season, and we have seen the season start in May only once in the past seven years. The last time it started in June was in 2022, and it continued for several months. At the moment, 23% of altcoins are winning against Bitcoin.”

Beyond price trends, other key metrics are used to identify a true Altcoin Season. These include changes in the total market cap of cryptocurrencies, trends in startup funding, especially in Web3, and the total value locked (TVL) in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols.

While the first quarter of 2025 saw $3.8 billion in Web3 startup funding — the highest since mid-2022 — Q2 experienced a steep drop, reaching the lowest point since 2019. This divergence suggests some caution. However, it’s interesting to note that the major altcoin boom in 2021 coincided with peak capital inflows into Web3 startups.

Despite a slight decrease in the first half of 2025, the TVL in DeFi protocols remains at an all-time high, showcasing the potential for sustained growth in the decentralized finance sector.

Although many investors may be focused on the lack of new all-time highs among older altcoins, broader data signals a moment of potential breakout for altcoins.

With the Altcoin Season Index showing signs of rising out of the indecision territory and historical trends aligning with the current cycle, June 2025 could set the stage for a long-awaited surge in altcoin momentum.

However, whether this will culminate in a full-blown Altcoin Season or just another short-lived rally remains to be seen as the signals are still in the early stages of alignment.