How to use the Coinbase prediction markets? (Kalshi Integration)

Accessing Prediction Markets on Coinbase

1. Users must hold a verified Coinbase account with completed identity verification and two-factor authentication enabled.

2. The prediction markets feature is only accessible via the Coinbase mobile app for iOS and Android, not through the web interface.

3. Eligible users see the “Predictions” tab under the “More” section once Kalshi integration is live in their jurisdiction.

4. Availability is restricted to residents of the United States excluding Hawaii, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, Nevada, and Washington due to state-level regulatory constraints.

5. A minimum balance of $10 in USD or stablecoin is required to place the first trade, though no deposit is mandatory to browse market listings.

Navigating Kalshi-Powered Market Listings

1. Each market presents a binary question with a clear yes/no resolution criterion and a defined expiration timestamp.

2. Prices range between $0.01 and $0.99, representing the implied probability of the outcome occurring — a price of $0.67 means the market assigns a 67% chance to “Yes”.

3. Order books display bid and ask depth, with liquidity sourced entirely from Kalshi’s matching engine, not Coinbase’s internal order book.

4. Historical settlement data for closed markets is visible on each listing page, including final resolution source and timestamp.

5. Filters allow sorting by category — such as macroeconomic indicators, crypto price thresholds, or election outcomes — but no custom search bar exists.

Placing and Managing Trades

1. Traders select either “Yes” or “No”, enter quantity in contracts (minimum one, maximum 10,000 per order), then confirm.

2. Each contract pays $1.00 if correct, $0.00 if incorrect — no partial payouts or scaling based on margin or leverage.

3. Orders execute instantly against available liquidity; limit orders are not supported at launch.

4. Open positions appear under “Active Predictions” with real-time PnL calculated against current market price.

5. Users cannot close positions early — all contracts settle automatically at expiration using third-party verifiable data.

Funding and Settlement Mechanics

1. Funds used for trading are drawn from the user’s USD wallet; stablecoins like USDC are not accepted for prediction market purchases.

2. Settlement occurs within 15 minutes of the official resolution time, with payouts credited directly to the USD wallet.

3. No fees apply to winning settlements, but a flat $0.01 per contract fee is deducted from each purchase regardless of outcome.

4. Failed resolution — such as ambiguous event definitions or missing data sources — triggers automatic cancellation and full refund.

5. Tax documentation is generated quarterly in Form 1099-MISC format for U.S. users with over $600 in net gains.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Can I trade predictions using Coinbase Wallet or Base network assets? A: No. Prediction markets operate exclusively through the Coinbase consumer app and require USD from the fiat wallet. Base-native tokens or external wallets are unsupported.

Q: Are prediction market trades subject to Coinbase’s standard asset custody terms? A: Yes. All unsettled contracts are held in Coinbase’s regulated trust structure under New York State DFS license provisions.

Q: Does Kalshi retain any control over market creation or resolution after integration? A: Yes. Kalshi maintains sole authority over question formulation, resolution criteria, data source selection, and final determination — Coinbase acts solely as a distribution and settlement interface.

Q: Can institutional accounts access these markets through Coinbase Prime or Custody? A: No. The Kalshi integration is limited to retail Coinbase accounts. Prime, Custody, and Advanced Trade platforms do not support prediction market functionality.