How to operate the monthly MACD fast and slow line adhesion + weekly line breaking through the previous high + daily line stepping back on the 10-day line?

Monthly MACD adhesion, weekly breakout above prior high, and daily pullback to 10-day EMA signal a high-probability long entry in crypto.

Jul 30, 2025 at 02:14 pm

Understanding the MACD Indicator and Its Components

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is a momentum oscillator widely used in technical analysis within the cryptocurrency market. It consists of three elements: the MACD line, the signal line (slow line), and the histogram. The MACD line is calculated by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA. The signal line is a 9-period EMA of the MACD line. When the MACD fast line and slow line show adhesion, it indicates that momentum is consolidating, often preceding a breakout. This adhesion suggests minimal divergence between short-term and medium-term momentum, potentially signaling a buildup before a directional move.

Monthly Chart: Identifying MACD Fast and Slow Line Adhesion

To begin the analysis, traders must examine the monthly MACD chart of the cryptocurrency asset. Adhesion occurs when the MACD line and signal line run very close to each other, often overlapping or nearly touching over several periods. This condition typically appears after a prolonged sideways or downtrend phase. To identify this:

• Open a monthly timeframe chart on a trading platform such as TradingView or Binance.
• Apply the standard MACD indicator (12, 26, 9).
• Observe if the two lines are visually converging or moving in tight proximity for at least 2 to 3 months.
• Confirm the adhesion is not due to low volatility by checking volume and price action — ideally, volume should be decreasing during this phase.

This adhesion suggests that the market is in a state of equilibrium, and a breakout could be imminent once momentum re-emerges.

Weekly Chart: Confirming Breakout Above Previous High

After identifying adhesion on the monthly MACD, shift focus to the weekly chart to confirm a breakout. The key condition here is that the price must break above the previous significant high on the weekly timeframe. This breakout acts as a confirmation of renewed bullish momentum.

• Locate the most recent swing high on the weekly chart.
• Ensure that the price closes above this high with strong volume.
• Use candlestick patterns such as bullish engulfing or hammer candles to strengthen the signal.
• Cross-verify with other indicators like weekly RSI to ensure it is not in overbought territory prematurely (e.g., below 70).

This weekly breakout is crucial because it reflects a shift in higher-degree trend structure. When combined with monthly MACD adhesion, it increases the probability of a sustained upward move.

Daily Chart: Price Stepping Back to the 10-Day Moving Average

Once the weekly breakout is confirmed, traders should monitor the daily chart for a pullback or retest. The ideal scenario is the price stepping back to the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) after the breakout. This retracement serves as a potential entry point.

• Plot the 10-day EMA on the daily chart.
• Wait for the price to decline toward this moving average after the breakout.
• Look for bullish reversal candlestick patterns (e.g., doji, bullish engulfing) near the 10-day EMA.
• Confirm support with volume contraction during the pullback and expansion upon reversal.

The 10-day EMA often acts as dynamic support in uptrends. A clean touch and bounce from this level, especially with rising volume, validates the strength of the trend.

Executing the Trade: Entry, Stop-Loss, and Position Management

With all three conditions met — monthly MACD adhesion, weekly breakout above prior high, and daily pullback to 10-day EMA — traders can consider entering a long position.

• Enter the trade when the daily candle closes above the 10-day EMA following the pullback.
• Place a stop-loss below the recent swing low on the daily chart, or slightly below the 10-day EMA (e.g., 2–3% depending on volatility).
• Consider using a trailing stop to lock in profits as the price advances.
• Allocate position size based on risk tolerance — never risk more than 1–2% of total capital on a single trade.

Use limit orders to enter at precise levels, avoiding market orders during volatile periods. Monitor the daily MACD histogram for signs of increasing momentum — expanding green bars confirm bullish strength.

Monitoring Confluence with Volume and On-Chain Data

To enhance the reliability of the setup, incorporate volume analysis and on-chain metrics. In the cryptocurrency market, price movements without volume confirmation are often unreliable.

• Check if the weekly breakout candle has above-average volume.
• Use tools like CoinGlass or Glassnode to analyze on-chain data — look for increasing exchange outflows or accumulation by large holders (whales).
• Ensure that funding rates on futures markets are neutral or slightly positive, avoiding extreme greed which may indicate a short-term top.

These additional layers help filter false signals and improve the quality of the trade setup.

Frequently Asked Questions

What if the MACD lines on the monthly chart separate slightly but don’t fully cross?

Slight separation without a full crossover can still be valid if the lines remain in close proximity. The key is minimal divergence, indicating consolidation. Monitor for a subsequent convergence and wait for the weekly breakout to confirm momentum.

Can this strategy be applied to altcoins, or is it only for Bitcoin?

This strategy is applicable to high-liquidity altcoins such as Ethereum, Solana, or Binance Coin. However, ensure the altcoin has sufficient trading volume and historical data. Low-cap altcoins may exhibit erratic MACD behavior due to manipulation or low liquidity.

How long should I wait for the daily pullback to reach the 10-day EMA?

There is no fixed timeframe, but monitor for up to 5–7 daily candles after the weekly breakout. If the price continues to rise without a pullback, consider entering on a retest of the breakout level instead. Avoid chasing the price too far above the 10-day EMA.

What time of day should I check these conditions for optimal results?

Check the charts at UTC 00:00 to align with the start of a new trading day/week/month. This ensures candle closures are finalized and avoids premature signals based on incomplete data.