Is it credible that the 60-minute level volume and price rise but the MACD does not cross golden?

Understanding the Relationship Between Volume, Price, and MACD

In technical analysis, traders often rely on a combination of indicators to validate price action. One common scenario that puzzles many traders is when volume increases and price rises, but the MACD does not generate a golden cross. This situation raises questions about the reliability of such signals and whether traders should trust the underlying momentum.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price. A golden cross occurs when the MACD line crosses above the signal line, typically signaling a bullish trend. However, in some cases, even with rising volume and price, this crossover doesn’t happen, which can confuse traders who expect confirmation from multiple sources.

The Role of Volume in Confirming Price Trends

Volume is often considered a leading indicator because it tends to precede price movement. When volume increases alongside a rising price, it usually suggests strong buying pressure and confirms the uptrend. Traders interpret this as a sign of healthy market participation and potential continuation of the trend.

However, volume alone isn’t enough to confirm a trend reversal or continuation without corresponding signals from other technical tools like the MACD. In certain scenarios, volume may rise due to short covering or panic buying rather than genuine institutional accumulation, which might explain why the MACD remains bearish despite the apparent strength in price and volume.

Why the MACD Might Not Cross Golden Even With Rising Price and Volume

There are several reasons why the MACD may not show a golden cross even when both price and volume are increasing:

• Short-term divergence: The price might be experiencing a short-term rally that isn't strong enough to shift the longer-term moving averages used in the MACD calculation.
• Market manipulation: Large players may temporarily push the price higher while maintaining bearish control, causing confusion among retail traders.
• Timeframe mismatch: The 60-minute chart may reflect strength, but if the daily or weekly charts show weakness, the MACD could still remain bearish.
• Volatility compression: In low-volatility environments, the MACD might lag behind price action, especially if the rally lacks sustained momentum.

These factors suggest that traders should not solely rely on one indicator, even a popular one like the MACD, to make trading decisions.

How to Analyze This Scenario Step-by-Step

To better understand this discrepancy, follow these steps:

• Check the MACD settings: Ensure you're using standard settings (12-period EMA, 26-period EMA, and 9-period signal line). Deviating from these defaults can alter how the MACD behaves.
• Compare with other timeframes: Look at the daily and weekly charts to see if there's a broader downtrend that might suppress the MACD signal on the 60-minute chart.
• Analyze candlestick patterns: Observe if recent candles indicate rejection at resistance levels or signs of exhaustion despite rising volume.
• Use alternative momentum indicators: Compare the MACD with RSI or Stochastic to check for hidden divergences or overbought conditions.
• Assess order flow: If available, look into order book data or depth to determine whether the volume spike was driven by aggressive buyers or passive accumulation.

By following these steps, traders can gain a more comprehensive understanding of why the MACD hasn't crossed golden despite positive price and volume action.

What This Means for Crypto Traders

In the cryptocurrency market, volatility and rapid price swings are common. Therefore, situations where volume and price rise but MACD doesn’t cross golden are not rare. Traders must consider the context:

• News-driven rallies: Sometimes, price surges occur due to short-lived news events that don’t sustain long-term momentum.
• FOMO buying: Fear of missing out can cause retail investors to pile into an asset without institutional support, leading to fakeouts.
• Altcoin dynamics: Many altcoins experience sudden spikes followed by sharp corrections. These moves can distort technical indicators temporarily.

Given the speculative nature of crypto markets, traders should treat such setups with caution and avoid entering trades purely based on volume and price without additional confirmation.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can a rising price and volume be misleading?Yes, especially in illiquid or highly volatile markets like crypto. High volume during a price rise doesn't always indicate sustainable demand. It could be due to wash trading, short covering, or pump-and-dump schemes.

Is the MACD reliable for short-term trading on 60-minute charts?The MACD can be useful, but it has limitations in fast-moving markets. It often lags behind real-time price action and may not capture quick reversals effectively. Combining it with other tools like RSI or volume-weighted moving averages improves accuracy.

What should I do if the MACD doesn’t confirm a bullish move?You should investigate further. Check for divergence across multiple timeframes, assess candlestick behavior, and verify with on-chain metrics or sentiment indicators. Avoid making impulsive trades based on partial signals.

Are there specific crypto assets where this phenomenon is more common?Yes, particularly in smaller-cap altcoins or newly launched tokens. These assets often lack consistent liquidity and are prone to manipulation, which can create false signals in both volume and technical indicators.