XRP-XLM 价格相关性和激烈的争论

最近涉及 Ripple 的 XRP 和 Stellar 的 XLM 的价格现象在加密货币社区内引发了争论。

Recent price movements of Ripple’s XRP and Stellar’s XLM have sparked a fresh round of discussions within the cryptocurrency community. The two digital assets have exhibited a remarkable consistency in their price trends over the past decade, largely moving in the same direction.

Ripple 的 XRP 和 Stellar 的 XLM 最近的价格走势引发了加密货币社区新一轮的讨论。过去十年中，这两种数字资产的价格趋势表现出显着的一致性，基本上朝着同一方向发展。

This correlation has reignited conversations surrounding the potential impact of burning XRP tokens held in escrow by Ripple. A significant portion of the XRP community has been advocating for this measure, believing it would alleviate any perceived price suppression caused by Ripple’s periodic sales of XRP.

这种相关性重新引发了关于销毁 Ripple 托管的 XRP 代币潜在影响的讨论。 XRP 社区的很大一部分人一直在倡导这一措施，认为这将减轻 Ripple 定期销售 XRP 造成的价格压制。

To provide some context, Ripple sold approximately 841 million XRP in the first quarter of 2024, and their current escrow holdings stand at 39.7 billion XRP.

提供一些背景信息，Ripple 在 2024 年第一季度出售了约 8.41 亿个 XRP，其当前托管持有量为 397 亿个 XRP。

In a bid to influence the token’s price, the Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) undertook a large-scale token burn in November 2019, removing 55 billion XLM from circulation. This monumental action, which constituted roughly half of the total XLM supply at the time, was valued at $4.4 billion.

为了影响代币价格，恒星发展基金会（SDF）于 2019 年 11 月进行了大规模代币销毁，从流通中移除了 550 亿枚 XLM。这一具有里程碑意义的行动约占当时 XLM 总供应量的一半，价值 44 亿美元。

However, this substantial burn had a negligible impact on XLM's price movements. Despite the significant reduction in supply, XLM’s price remained remarkably stable and continued to mirror XRP's price trends.

然而，这种大幅销毁对 XLM 价格走势的影响可以忽略不计。尽管供应量大幅减少，XLM 的价格仍然非常稳定，并继续反映 XRP 的价格趋势。

This episode serves as a crucial reference point for the ongoing debate about burning Ripple’s XRP escrow. A segment of the XRP community strongly advocates for burning these escrowed tokens, believing it would alleviate price suppression caused by Ripple’s periodic sales. For context, Ripple sold approximately 841 million XRP in the first quarter of 2024, and their current escrow holdings stand at 39.7 billion XRP.

这一事件是关于销毁 Ripple 的 XRP 托管的持续争论的一个重要参考点。 XRP 社区的一部分强烈主张销毁这些托管代币，认为这将减轻 Ripple 定期销售造成的价格压制。就背景而言，Ripple 在 2024 年第一季度出售了约 8.41 亿个 XRP，其当前托管持有量为 397 亿个 XRP。

This line of thought suggests that burning the escrowed XRP would reduce the total circulating supply, leading to an increase in the scarcity of the available XRP tokens. According to this theory, the higher scarcity would drive up the demand for XRP, ultimately resulting in a favorable impact on its price movements.

这种思路表明，销毁托管的 XRP 会减少总流通供应量，导致可用 XRP 代币的稀缺性增加。根据这一理论，更高的稀缺性将推高 XRP 的需求，最终对其价格走势产生有利影响。

Prominent Australian attorney Bill Morgan, who is well-known for his involvement in cryptocurrency legal matters, offered valuable insights into the XRP-XLM correlation. He suggests that Stellar’s burn experiment serves as a strong indicator that burning XRP from escrow would likely be ineffective in manipulating XRP’s price movements.

澳大利亚著名律师 Bill Morgan 因其参与加密货币法律事务而闻名，他对 XRP-XLM 相关性提供了宝贵的见解。他认为，Stellar 的销毁实验是一个强有力的指标，表明从托管中销毁 XRP 可能无法有效地操纵 XRP 的价格走势。

According to Morgan's analysis, factors beyond the direct control of the XRP Ledger and Stellar ecosystems appear to be the primary drivers behind the price movements of both assets.

根据摩根的分析，XRP Ledger 和 Stellar 生态系统无法直接控制的因素似乎是这两种资产价格变动背后的主要驱动因素。

Adding to the conversation, Ripple’s Chief Technology Officer, David Schwartz, acknowledged the perplexing nature of the XRP-XLM price correlation. He emphasizes that external forces, independent of the Ripple and Stellar ecosystems, are likely to exert the most significant influence on the price movements of both tokens.

Ripple 首席技术官 David Schwartz 在对话中补充道，他承认 XRP-XLM 价格相关性令人困惑。他强调，独立于 Ripple 和 Stellar 生态系统的外部力量可能对这两种代币的价格走势产生最重大的影响。

Schwartz reinforces this argument by highlighting the negligible impact of Stellar’s substantial token burn on its price divergence from XRP. He has previously expressed similar sentiments, suggesting that burning escrowed XRP would be an unproductive use of resources as it wouldn’t significantly alter XRP’s price trajectory.

Schwartz 强调 Stellar 的大量代币销毁对其与 XRP 的价格差异的影响微不足道，从而强化了这一论点。他此前曾表达过类似的观点，认为燃烧托管 XRP 将是对资源的无益利用，因为它不会显着改变 XRP 的价格轨迹。

Despite the ineffectiveness of a similar burn by Stellar, some within the XRP community believe burning Ripple’s escrowed XRP could boost the price by addressing investor sentiment.

尽管 Stellar 的类似销毁行动无效，但 XRP 社区中的一些人认为，销毁 Ripple 托管的 XRP 可以通过缓解投资者情绪来提振价格。

However, experts counter that external factors, not investor sentiment, likely drive the XRP-XLM correlation, pointing to the ongoing legal case against Ripple having no lasting impact on the price link. The true cause of the correlation remains unclear, and further analysis is needed before deciding on burning Ripple’s XRP escrow.

然而，专家反驳说，外部因素（而不是投资者情绪）可能推动 XRP-XLM 相关性，并指出正在进行的针对 Ripple 的法律案件对价格联系没有持久影响。相关性的真正原因尚不清楚，在决定销毁 Ripple 的 XRP 托管之前需要进一步分析。