XRP Surges 8% as Ripple Partially Settles SEC Lawsuit

The price of XRP has surged by 8% in the past 24 hours, driven by broader cryptocurrency market momentum and news of Ripple’s partial settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

As part of the agreement, Ripple will pay $50 million of the original $125 million penalty imposed by the SEC. The SEC will return the remaining $75 million to Ripple, and both parties will drop their appeals if the court removes the injunction against Ripple.

The development has lifted XRP’s price to $2.38, a level where it has encountered strong resistance. This marks the seventh month in a row where XRP has failed to break above this resistance despite several attempts.

If short-term holders decide to sell at current levels to pocket some gains, it could weaken the token’s upward momentum. Such a scenario may trap XRP in a consolidation zone between $2.12 and $2.38, delaying any breakout from this zone.

However, if the bulls manage to clear the $2.38 resistance and turn it into a support level, it could trigger a sustained move toward the next resistance at $2.56. A successful breakout above the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart would also be needed to support further price gains and allow XRP to test the $2.38 resistance.

Short-Term Holders Show Bearish Behavior as MVRV Long/Short Difference Drops to 31-Month Low

On the other hand, XRP investors are showing mixed behavior, especially among short-term holders (STHs). The current value of the MVRV Long/Short Difference—a key on-chain indicator—has dropped to its lowest point in 31 months.

MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value. It compares the market price of a token to the average price at which holders bought it. A low Long/Short MVRV Difference often signals that many STHs, who typically sell quickly when in profit, might sell now to lock in gains.

If that happens, it can put downward pressure on XRP’s price and limit its ability to move higher. Short-term holders usually react quickly to price increases, and this behavior can prevent the token from breaking through key resistance zones.

Selling Pressure Builds as Short-Term Holders Pocket More Profits

As short-term holders gain more profits, the risk of sudden selling increases. If XRP experiences any short-term pullback, many holders might exit their positions. This wave of speculative selling could push prices lower or keep XRP stuck in its current range.

Technical analysis also shows mixed signals. The Ichimoku Cloud, a popular tool used to identify trends and reversals, currently shows bearish signs. This means the overall market sentiment still leans toward a downtrend.

However, the candlestick pattern on the daily chart is nearing a potential breakout above the Ichimコウモku Cloud. If the price closes above the cloud, it would mark a bullish shift.

A successful breakout above the cloud and the $2.38 resistance could support further price gains and allow XRP to test the next resistance at $2.56.

If the bears manage to break the bear flag pattern, it could lead to a 28% drop in XRP’s price.

On May 9, the XRP/USDT daily chart on Bybit shows a bear flag pattern forming after a sharp upward move. A bear flag is a bearish continuation pattern where prices temporarily rise inside a parallel channel after a steep drop, then potentially fall again once the flag breaks down.

The flagpole, which is the initial move down, saw XRP decline from highs above $2 to lows around $1.71. After the drop, the price bounced and formed a flag pattern with lower highs and lows.

If this bear flag pattern confirms with a breakdown below the lower trendline, then it could continue the move seen in the flagpole. In this case, XRP could drop by around 28%, targeting the $1.71 level.

Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $2.2082, and XRP is still trading above it. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, is at 65.29, suggesting XRP is close to overbought territory. If selling pressure increases and the RSI drops, this could further support a bearish move.

Volume remains moderate at 45.87 million, but a sudden spike in sell volume could confirm the pattern breakdown.

If the bulls can defend the current support levels and push the price back above the Ichimoku Cloud, it could set the stage for further gains in the coming months.

However, if the bears manage to break the bear flag pattern, it could lead to a 28% drop in XRP’s price.

This analysis considers the technical indicators and chart patterns to predict future price movements. It'