现货 ETF 会带动 Solana ($SOL) 上涨吗？

今天，我们将继续关注推动 Solana 转向现货 ETF 的因素。最后，我们将回答这个问题：ETF 会带动 Solana 上涨吗？

Today, we continue looking at factors that drive Solana towards its spot ETF.

今天，我们继续关注推动 Solana 转向现货 ETF 的因素。

To conclude, we’ll answer the question: Will an ETF pump Solana? Here is the first part.

最后，我们将回答这个问题：ETF 会带动 Solana 上涨吗？这是第一部分。

Two More Factors for Solana’s Spot ETF

Solana 现货 ETF 的另外两个因素

The first factor here would be aspects of decentralization, which include the Nakamoto Coefficient, Staking Requirements, and CCData Governance Rating. Solana performed well in these, which gives it a score of 0.4.

这里的第一个因素是去中心化的方面，其中包括中本聪系数、质押要求和 CCData 治理评级。 Solana 在这些方面表现良好，得分为 0.4。

Below is a comparison of Solana amongst other projects. We can see that Solana did well by placing #2, only behind Ethereum.

以下是 Solana 与其他项目的比较。我们可以看到 Solana 表现出色，排名第二，仅落后于以太坊。

The next factor here is demand. Aspects of demand include Market Indicators, Assets Under Management (AUM), and different Activity Metrics. Solana has a demand score of 0.7. Again, it fares well amongst its peers, ranking #2 behind Ethereum.

下一个因素是需求。需求方面包括市场指标、管理资产 (AUM) 和不同的活动指标。 Solana 的需求得分为 0.7。它再次在同行中表现出色，排名第二，落后于以太坊。

Looking at decentralization and demand, it seems likely and logical that Solana will be the third crypto to have its spot ETF. But will having an ETF lead to an increase in $SOL’s price? Let’s find out in the next section.

从去中心化和需求来看，Solana 将成为第三个拥有现货 ETF 的加密货币似乎很可能也是合乎逻辑的。但拥有 ETF 会导致 $SOL 价格上涨吗？让我们在下一节中找到答案。

This article was originally published on Altcoin Buzz Alpha. You can subscribe in the banner below to see more articles like this.

本文最初发表在 Altcoin Buzz Alpha 上。您可以在下面的横幅中订阅以查看更多此类文章。

Impact on $SOL From a Spot ETF

现货 ETF 对 $SOL 的影响

To answer this question, let’s check BTC’s own ETF listing and its resulting impact on $BTC. Back then, $BTC experienced a 2.3x increase from $27,000 to $63,000 after its spot ETF was listed. Naturally, $SOL could follow along this path as well.

为了回答这个问题，我们来看看 BTC 自己的 ETF 上市及其对 BTC 美元的影响。当时，现货 ETF 上市后，$BTC 的价格从 27,000 美元上涨了 2.3 倍，达到 63,000 美元。当然，$SOL 也可以沿着这条道路走下去。

However, it would be unfair to assume that a $SOL ETF would bring in as many inflows as $BTC. With that, there can be 3 scenarios based on a bear, base, and bull case:

然而，假设 $SOL ETF 会带来与 $BTC 一样多的资金流入，这是不公平的。这样，根据熊市、基本情况和牛市情况，可以有 3 种情况：

Note: The above calculations take into account $SOL’s smaller market cap.

注意：上述计算考虑了 $SOL 较小的市值。

Current Price Action

当前价格走势

The SOL/USDT chart is quite bullish. The 119 support is often revisited and held. This means with a positive sentiment, SOL can retest the $204 resistance. $120 is a good entry for the short term.

SOL/USDT 图表相当看涨。 119支持经常被重新审视和持有。这意味着，在积极的情绪下，SOL 可以重新测试 204 美元的阻力位。短期而言，120 美元是一个不错的入场点。

The SOL/ETH chart is even more bullish. The range is quite strong, and the price action is good for a pump to 0.056 level.

SOL/ETH 图表更加看涨。该范围相当强劲，价格走势有利于上涨至 0.056 水平。

Should We Buy SOL?

我们应该购买 SOL 吗？

If you hold Ethereum (EVM L1 or EVM L2) and SUI (another non-EVM L1), you do not need to rush to SOL. But, if you do not hold any L1s, then SOL should be a great pick. The downside is minimal, and the upside is good.

如果你持有以太坊（EVM L1或EVM L2）和SUI（另一种非EVM L1），则无需急于SOL。但是，如果您没有任何 L1，那么 SOL 应该是一个不错的选择。缺点是最小的，而优点是好的。

$120 can be a good entry and any price below $100 is for DCAing and getting decent bags. Voila! That does it! To conclude, we are pretty bullish on a $SOL ETF. But then again, nothing is certain, especially in the crypto world. So, manage your risk accordingly!

120 美元可能是一个不错的入门价格，任何低于 100 美元的价格都适合 DCA 并获得像样的包包。瞧！就这样了！总而言之，我们非常看好 $SOL ETF。但话又说回来，没有什么是确定的，尤其是在加密世界中。因此，相应地管理您的风险！

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