9 月会是比特币 (BTC) 又一个悲观的月份吗？

几个关键指标已经显示空头正在接管并为 9 月份的潜在下跌做好准备。

Bitcoin (BTC) price might have dropped nearly 8% over the last month, but if past trends hold, traders can expect further declines in September.

比特币 (BTC) 价格在上个月可能下跌了近 8%，但如果过去的趋势保持不变，交易者预计 9 月份将进一步下跌。

BTC started trading at around $63,000 on 1 August, and barely one week into the month, the crypto’s price tanked to around $49,000. While the price later rebounded to touch $65,000 in late August, it has since dropped to trade at $59,190 at press time.

BTC 于 8 月 1 日开始交易，价格约为 63,000 美元，该月不到一周，该加密货币的价格就跌至 49,000 美元左右。虽然价格随后在 8 月底反弹至 65,000 美元，但截至发稿时已跌至 59,190 美元。

Now, if you think August was tough for Bitcoin, keep in mind that September often brings negative returns as well.

现在，如果您认为 8 月对比特币来说很艰难，请记住 9 月也经常带来负回报。

For instance, back in September 2023, the crypto’s price oscillated between $24,000-$27,000, without making any significant gains. A sharp 17% drop in price was also seen in September 2021.

例如，早在 2023 年 9 月，加密货币的价格就在 24,000 美元至 27,000 美元之间波动，但没有取得任何重大收益。 2021 年 9 月，价格也大幅下跌 17%。

So, will history repeat itself or will Bitcoin break this pattern?

那么，历史会重演还是比特币会打破这种模式？

A look at key metrics

关键指标一览

Several key metrics are already showing that bears are taking over and positioning themselves for a potential drop in September.

几个关键指标已经显示空头正在接管并为 9 月份的潜在下跌做好准备。

For instance, data from CryptoQuant revealed a significant increase in exchange inflows since late August. The inflows came shortly after BTC’s price rebounded above $64K.

例如，CryptoQuant 的数据显示，自 8 月底以来，交易所流入量显着增加。在 BTC 价格反弹至 6.4 万美元以上后不久，资金流入就出现了。

This indicator could mean that after the recent rebound in prices, a significant number of traders chose to sell and minimize risks in case of further dips ahead.

该指标可能意味着，在近期价格反弹后，大量交易者选择抛售，以在未来进一步下跌时将风险降至最低。

Buyers are also showing hesitance to get back into the market. Several key indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), showed waning buyer interest at press time.

买家对于重返市场也表现出犹豫。截至发稿时，相对强弱指数（RSI）和柴金资金流（CMF）等几个关键指标显示买家兴趣减弱。

The RSI at 43 suggested sellers are still in control, and buyers are unwilling to enter at its prevailing prices. The CMF has also oscillated in the negative region since 26 August – A sign of bearish dominance.

RSI 为 43 表明卖方仍在控制之中，而买方不愿以其现行价格入市。自 8 月 26 日以来，CMF 也在负值区域振荡——这是看跌主导的迹象。

On 30 August, the U.S announced that the core PCE price index for July came in at 2.6% year-on-year. This was lower than the expected 2.70%.

8月30日，美国公布7月核心PCE物价指数，同比上涨2.6%。这低于预期的2.70%。

Such positive macro factors usually lead to a bounce in Bitcoin’s price. However, that failed to happen yesterday.

这种积极的宏观因素通常会导致比特币价格反弹。然而，昨天这并没有发生。

According to QCP, with the recent macro news having barely any effect on crypto prices, BTC will continue to trade rangebound within $58K-$65K in the short term.

据 QCP 称，由于最近的宏观消息对加密货币价格几乎没有任何影响，短期内 BTC 将继续在 58K-65K 美元区间内波动。

Furthermore, inflows to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have weakened. In the last four consecutive days, for instance, BTC has seen consistent outflows, as per SoSoValue data.

此外，现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的流入也有所减弱。例如，根据 SoSoValue 的数据，在过去的连续四天里，BTC 出现了持续的资金外流。

Will September 2024 be different?

2024 年 9 月会有所不同吗？

Weakening demand for Bitcoin appears to be traders hesitating to enter the market in case September turns out to be another gloomy month.

比特币需求疲软似乎导致交易者犹豫是否进入市场，以防 9 月又是一个悲观的月份。

However, several bullish factors could stir a rally in September. The positive data around the U.S economy has fuelled speculation that the U.S will trim interest rates in the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

然而，一些看涨因素可能会在 9 月份引发反弹。美国经济的积极数据引发了人们对美国将在下次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上降息的猜测。

Data from the CME FedWatch Tool showed that a majority of investors anticipate the Fed to abandon monetary policy tightening for the first time since March 2020. If that happens, it will fuel a rally in risk assets such as Bitcoin.

CME FedWatch工具的数据显示，大多数投资者预计美联储将自2020年3月以来首次放弃货币政策紧缩。如果这种情况发生，将推动比特币等风险资产的反弹。

Another bullish catalyst is the release of former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao from prison. His release date is set for 29 September, and some already anticipate it might ignite a bull run.

另一个看涨催化剂是币安前首席执行官赵长鹏出狱。他的发布日期定为 9 月 29 日，一些人已经预计它可能会引发牛市。

Finally, former U.S President Donald Trump will debate U.S Vice President Kamala Harris in September. If there is any mention of crypto, it could spike volatility.

最后，美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普将于九月与美国副总统卡马拉·哈里斯进行辩论。如果提及加密货币，可能会加剧波动性。

Bitcoin’s funding rates have also flipped positive and risen significantly over the last few days. This implies a surge in long positions – A bullish signal as traders anticipate future gains.

比特币的融资利率也出现正值，并在过去几天显着上升。这意味着多头头寸激增——这是交易者预期未来收益的看涨信号。