尽管存在搜索时间神话，但量子计算机不会很快开采比特币

新的研究揭示了量子计算机开采比特币所需的天文数字资源，这表明实际威胁还很遥远。

Quantum Computers vs. Bitcoin Mining: A Reality Check

量子计算机与比特币挖矿：现实检验

The idea of quantum computers cracking Bitcoin's encryption and dominating the mining landscape has long been a topic of fascination and concern. However, recent in-depth analysis suggests that while theoretically possible, the practical hurdles are so immense that such a scenario remains firmly in the realm of science fiction for the foreseeable future.

量子计算机破解比特币加密并主导采矿领域的想法长期以来一直是人们着迷和关注的话题。然而，最近的深入分析表明，虽然理论上是可能的，但实际障碍如此巨大，以至于在可预见的未来，这种场景仍然牢牢地存在于科幻小说领域。

The Astronomical Cost of Quantum Mining

量子挖矿的天文数字成本

A groundbreaking study by Pierre-Luc Dallaire-Demers and colleagues at BTQ Technologies provides the first comprehensive cost analysis of the hardware required for quantum computers to mine Bitcoin using Grover's algorithm. Their open-source estimator meticulously accounts for every aspect, from the quantum oracles themselves to the logistics and energy consumption of operating a massive quantum fleet. The findings are stark: achieving even minimal consensus effects would necessitate resources on a scale comparable to advanced civilizations harnessing the power of stars.

BTQ Technologies 的 Pierre-Luc Dallaire-Demers 及其同事进行的一项开创性研究首次对量子计算机使用 Grover 算法挖掘比特币所需的硬件进行了全面的成本分析。他们的开源估算器仔细考虑了各个方面，从量子预言机本身到运营庞大量子舰队的物流和能源消耗。研究结果是显而易见的：即使要实现最小的共识效应，也需要与利用恒星力量的先进文明相当的资源。

For context, a quantum computer capable of mining Bitcoin at projected January 2025 difficulty levels would require an astounding 10²³ qubits and consume an unfathomable 10²⁵ watts of power. To put that into perspective, this energy demand rivals that of a Kardashev Type II civilization – one capable of utilizing the total energy output of its host star. Even more conservative estimates, focusing on superconducting surface-code architectures (a leading quantum computing approach), still point to a need for around 10⁸ physical qubits and a staggering 10⁴ megawatts of power – a load comparable to a large national grid.

就上下文而言，一台能够在 2025 年 1 月预计难度水平下开采比特币的量子计算机将需要惊人的 1023 个量子比特，并消耗难以估量的 1025 瓦功率。从这个角度来看，这种能源需求可与卡尔达肖夫 II 型文明相媲美——一种能够利用其主恒星的总能量输出的文明。即使是更保守的估计，重点关注超导表面代码架构（一种领先的量子计算方法），仍然表明需要大约 108 个物理量子位和惊人的 104 兆瓦电力——这一负载可与大型国家电网相媲美。

Beyond Theoretical Speedups: Quantifying the Attack Surface

超越理论加速：量化攻击面

This research moves beyond mere theoretical speedups, which have often fueled fears about quantum threats. The team's estimator delves into the complete quantum attack surface, costing each component involved in a potential quantum mining operation. This includes the development and maintenance of fault-tolerant hardware, which requires multiple copies of data to correct errors, significantly inflating the number of physical qubits needed for reliable calculations. The analysis deliberately focuses on superconducting surface-code costs as a benchmark, acknowledging that other quantum computing architectures might present different cost-benefit ratios, but the fundamental resource requirements remain immense.

这项研究超越了单纯的理论加速，这常常加剧人们对量子威胁的担忧。该团队的估算器深入研究了完整的量子攻击面，计算了潜在量子挖掘操作中涉及的每个组件的成本。这包括容错硬件的开发和维护，这需要多个数据副本来纠正错误，从而大大增加了可靠计算所需的物理量子位的数量。该分析特意将超导表面代码成本作为基准，承认其他量子计算架构可能呈现不同的成本效益比，但基本资源需求仍然巨大。

Bitcoin's Resilience: Beyond Quantum Threats

比特币的弹性：超越量子威胁

While the quantum threat to Bitcoin mining remains a distant concern, the cryptocurrency itself continues to navigate the more immediate dynamics of the market. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant highlights that Bitcoin has historically found bottoms during bear markets when its price revisits or dips below its Realized Price, currently around $54,000. Although the market has seen some bearish momentum recently, Bitcoin has largely stayed above this crucial indicator, suggesting that, on average, investors remain in a net profit position. However, recent buyers, those who acquired BTC within the last 155 days, are currently underwater, indicating potential sell pressure on any upward price movements.

尽管对比特币挖矿的量子威胁仍然是一个遥远的问题，但加密货币本身继续引领着市场更直接的动态。链上分析公司 CryptoQuant 强调，历史上，当比特币价格重新回到或跌破其实际价格（目前约为 54,000 美元）时，比特币就会在熊市期间找到底部。尽管市场最近出现了一些看跌势头，但比特币基本上保持在这一关键指标之上，这表明投资者平均仍处于净利润状态。然而，最近的买家（即在过去 155 天内购买 BTC 的买家）目前处于水下状态，这表明任何价格上涨都可能面临抛售压力。

A Glimpse into the Future (and Present)

未来（和现在）一瞥

The sheer scale of resources required for quantum mining paints a clear picture: practical quantum attacks on Bitcoin mining are not on the immediate horizon. The energy and qubit demands are simply too vast for current or foreseeable technology. So, while quantum computers might eventually change the landscape of computation, their ability to disrupt Bitcoin mining in a meaningful way appears to be a problem for another era, perhaps one with Dyson spheres and interstellar travel. For now, it seems Bitcoin's existing security mechanisms, combined with the astronomical cost of quantum computation, provide a robust defense. Time will tell, but for today, the quantum threat to Bitcoin mining is more of a fascinating thought experiment than an imminent danger. Happy hodling!

量子挖矿所需的庞大资源规模描绘了一幅清晰的图景：对比特币挖矿的实际量子攻击还不会立即出现。对于当前或可预见的技术来说，能源和量子比特的需求实在太大了。因此，虽然量子计算机最终可能会改变计算的格局，但它们以有意义的方式破坏比特币挖矿的能力似乎是另一个时代的问题，也许是戴森球和星际旅行的时代。目前看来，比特币现有的安全机制，加上量子计算的天文数字成本，提供了强大的防御。时间会证明一切，但就今天而言，比特币挖矿面临的量子威胁更多的是一个令人着迷的思想实验，而不是迫在眉睫的危险。快乐持有！