比特币面临 2024 年潜在投降事件时出现类似模式

著名加密货币交易员和分析师 Alan Santana 在 TradingView 上的技术分析显示，比特币已经横盘整理了 224 天。

Prominent crypto trader and analyst Alan Santana has shared some interesting technical analysis on TradingView, highlighting that Bitcoin has now been trading sideways for 224 days.

著名的加密货币交易员和分析师 Alan Santana 在 TradingView 上分享了一些有趣的技术分析，强调比特币目前已经横盘交易 224 天了。

Santana contrasts the present market activity with the 2013/14 bullish wave, which he had earlier identified as a “recovery wave.” However, a key difference this time around is that Bitcoin had already reached a new all-time high (ATH) before shifting sideways. This pattern, to some extent, mirrors the market behavior prior to the March 2020 crash.

桑塔纳将当前的市场活动与 2013/14 年的看涨浪潮进行了对比，他之前将其称为“复苏浪潮”。然而，这一次的一个关键区别是，比特币在横向移动之前已经达到了历史新高（ATH）。这种模式在某种程度上反映了 2020 年 3 月崩盘之前的市场行为。

Similarities Emerge as Bitcoin May Be Gearing up for a Capitulation Event in 2024

随着比特币可能为 2024 年的投降事件做好准备，相似之处出现

Peaking in July, Bitcoin entered a sideways phase with lower highs for 224 days precisely in 2019, forming a similar bounce as what has been observed recently. Throughout the last five weeks of that sideways pattern, Bitcoin saw a slight pump, followed by a neutral week, and then, surprisingly, the last crash occurred.

比特币在 7 月达到顶峰，进入横盘阶段，并在 2019 年连续 224 天创下较低高点，形成了与最近观察到的类似反弹。在这种横盘格局的最后五周中，比特币出现了小幅上涨，随后是中立的一周，然后令人惊讶的是，最后一次崩盘发生了。

This sudden drop took many traders by surprise, and Santana suggests that something similar could be on the cards for 2024. He points towards the possibility of a capitulation event where BTC might drop to levels it traded in around October or September 2023.

这种突然的下跌让许多交易者感到惊讶，桑塔纳表示 2024 年可能会出现类似的情况。他指出，比特币可能会跌至 2023 年 10 月或 9 月左右的交易水平，出现投降事件。

Like In March 2020, Santana Thinks the Possible Fall May Last Three Weeks Of Strong Bearish Behavior

与 2020 年 3 月一样，桑塔纳认为可能的下跌可能会持续三周的强烈看跌行为

Before the sharp downturn, Bitcoin may spend the first two weeks holding up at its highs. During the 2020 crash, Bitcoin tested a low price range observed in late 2018/early 2019 and quickly recovered after the initial drop.

在大幅下滑之前，比特币可能会在前两周保持在高位。在 2020 年崩盘期间，比特币测试了 2018 年底/2019 年初观察到的低价区间，并在最初下跌后迅速恢复。

If the same pattern continues, Bitcoin could suddenly drop to levels seen as recently as late 2023, followed by a swift recovery. Highlighting that $43,000 is not the lowest, he also cautions that the longer the market waits to undergo this capitulation, the more severe it will be.

如果同样的模式持续下去，比特币可能会突然跌至 2023 年末的水平，然后迅速复苏。他强调 43,000 美元并不是最低价，但他还警告说，市场等待这种投降的时间越长，情况就会越严重。

Elsewhere, BTC trades at $67,812.05 at the time of writing, seeing a daily trading volume of $30.64 billion and up by 1.57% in the last 24 hours. A mix of institutional and retail activity drives this price movement, and Bitcoin whales have been accumulating notably.

截至撰写本文时，BTC 交易价格为 67,812.05 美元，日交易量为 306.4 亿美元，过去 24 小时内上涨 1.57%。机构和零售活动共同推动了这一价格走势，比特币鲸鱼一直在显着积累。

As reported by CNF, over the past two weeks, Bitcoin wallets containing 100 or more BTC have jumped by 297K. While retail wallets experienced only a 0.1% rise in the same period, large wallet holders increased by 1.9%.

据 CNF 报道，过去两周，包含 100 个或以上 BTC 的比特币钱包增加了 29.7 万个。同期零售钱包仅增长 0.1%，而大型钱包持有者则增长 1.9%。