纸质比特币一直在上涨，而现货比特币则保持不变

数据显示，“纸质”比特币最近出现显着上涨，而加密货币的现货价格却大幅下跌。

Analysis shows that paper Bitcoin observed a notable surge recently while the cryptocurrency’s spot price plunged down.

分析显示，纸质比特币最近出现显着上涨，而加密货币现货价格却大幅下跌。

In a new thread on X, analyst Willy Woo talked about the state of the Bitcoin market. BTC has been seeing a bearish trend recently, with the German Government selling and Mt. Gox distributions being two of the major sources of FUD among investors.

在 X 的新帖子中，分析师 Willy Woo 谈到了比特币市场的状况。 BTC 最近呈现看跌趋势，德国政府抛售和 Mt. Gox 派发是投资者 FUD 的两个主要来源。

Woo pointed out that Germany sold around 10,000 BTC, with 39,800 BTC still in the government’s custody. Mt. Gox hasn’t distributed as much BTC yet, with only 2,700 BTC being returned to their owners.

Woo指出，德国出售了约10,000枚比特币，其中39,800枚比特币仍由政府保管。 Mt. Gox 尚未分发那么多 BTC，仅将 2,700 BTC 返还给其所有者。

The bankrupt exchange still has 139,000 BTC left to distribute, but the bearish impact from these holdings depends on whether the holders receiving the coins want to sell. It wouldn’t appear that these two entities have added that much actual selling pressure to the market yet.

这家破产的交易所仍有 139,000 枚 BTC 可供分配，但这些持有量的利空影响取决于收到硬币的持有者是否愿意出售。这两家实体似乎还没有给市场带来那么大的实际抛售压力。

So, what’s been the true culprit behind Bitcoin’s crash? According to the analyst, that would seem to be paper BTC. Paper BTC refers to the derivatives products related to the cryptocurrency that don’t need ownership of any actual BTC tokens.

那么，比特币崩盘的真正罪魁祸首是什么？据分析师称，这似乎是纸质比特币。纸质BTC是指不需要拥有任何实际BTC代币的与加密货币相关的衍生产品。

Here’s a chart that shows BTC’s trajectory during this latest plunge in the asset:

下图显示了比特币在最近一次资产暴跌期间的走势：

In the graph, the purple line reflects the combined paper and spot BTC inventory currently sitting on the various centralized exchanges in the sector. This inventory has been on the rise recently.

在图中，紫色线反映了该行业各个集中交易所目前的纸币和现货 BTC 库存总量。该库存近期呈上升趋势。

This increase, however, could also be because of spot deposits rather than paper Bitcoin being minted. However, as the blue curve shows, spot BTC has been showing a flat trajectory while the overall inventory went up. This would confirm that paper BTC has indeed been behind the increase.

然而，这种增长也可能是因为现货存款而不是纸质比特币的铸造。然而，正如蓝色曲线所示，现货 BTC 一直呈现平坦轨迹，而整体库存却在上升。这将证实纸质比特币确实推动了这一增长。

In total, 140,000 extra paper BTC was printed recently. “Now compare that to 10,000 BTC that Germany sold, and you see what caused the dump,” says Woo. Thus, it’s possible that derivatives would have to see a flush if the cryptocurrency had to make some solid recovery.

最近总共额外印刷了 140,000 个纸币 BTC。 “现在将其与德国出售的 10,000 比特币进行比较，你就会明白是什么导致了抛售，”Woo 说。因此，如果加密货币必须实现一定程度的复苏，衍生品可能会出现大幅上涨。

While bearish winds are ahead in terms of the remaining Mt. Gox and German government offloading, a bullish development may also be forming for the coin. As the analyst has explained, the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have started to show early signs of accumulation.

尽管 Mt. Gox 和德国政府的剩余抛售行为正面临看跌风潮，但该代币也可能正在形成看涨趋势。正如分析师所解释的那样，现货交易所交易基金（ETF）已开始显示出吸筹的早期迹象。

BTC PriceThe past month has seen a bearish trend for Bitcoin with the asset’s price dropping by over 17% and sliding to $57,200.

BTC 价格过去一个月，比特币出现看跌趋势，该资产的价格下跌了 17% 以上，跌至 57,200 美元。