美国千禧年淘金热：海市蜃楼还是现实？

在经济担忧日益加剧的情况下，美国人，尤其是千禧一代，越来越多地投资黄金。最近，年轻购物者在 Costco 购买金条引发了对这一趋势的讨论，道富银行的一项研究表明，千禧一代将 17% 的投资分配给了黄金。然而，该研究的方法基于对黄金公司附属公司的在线调查，引发了人们对该数字准确性的质疑。

The Millennial Gold Rush: Is it Real or a Statistical Mirage?

千禧年淘金热：是真实的还是统计上的幻象？

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal painted a vivid picture of millennials flocking to Costco to purchase gold bars amid fears of economic uncertainty. The anecdotes of Craig Beauregard and Julia Edwards, who stumbled upon a bargain-priced ounce of gold, seem to support the notion of a growing trend among the younger generation toward investing in the precious metal. However, upon closer examination, the evidence presented falls short of establishing a definitive trend.

《华尔街日报》最近的一篇文章生动地描绘了千禧一代因担心经济不确定性而涌向 Costco 购买金条的景象。克雷格·博勒加德 (Craig Beauregard) 和朱莉娅·爱德华兹 (Julia Edwards) 偶然发现了一盎司低价黄金，他们的轶事似乎支持了年轻一代投资贵金属的趋势日益增长的观点。然而，经过仔细检查，所提供的证据未能确定明确的趋势。

The Journal's attempt to corroborate the isolated examples of Beauregard and Edwards with additional anecdotes and a questionable study raises concerns about the validity of the conclusions drawn. The study cited, conducted by State Street, claims that the "average millennial allocates 17% of their investments to gold," a figure derived from an online poll of 1,000 individuals with $250,000 in investments, of whom only 25% were millennials. This methodology raises red flags, as it relies on a small sample size and a self-selected group who may not be representative of the millennial population at large.

《华尔街日报》试图用额外的轶事和一项有问题的研究来证实博勒加德和爱德华兹的孤立例子，这引起了人们对所得出结论的有效性的担忧。道富银行进行的这项研究称，“千禧一代平均将 17% 的投资分配给黄金”，这一数字来自对 1,000 名拥有 25 万美元投资的个人进行的在线调查，其中只有 25% 是千禧一代。这种方法提出了危险信号，因为它依赖于小样本量和自我选择的群体，而这些群体可能无法代表整个千禧一代人口。

Furthermore, the Journal's narrative overlooks the inherent limitations of gold as an investment. While gold has historically served as a store of value, its drawbacks as an asset class cannot be ignored. It is difficult to spend, especially in smaller transactions, and its liquidity is limited compared to other investments. Additionally, gold is subject to sales tax in many jurisdictions, further eroding its value.

此外，该杂志的叙述忽视了黄金作为投资的固有局限性。虽然黄金历史上一直作为一种价值储存手段，但其作为资产类别的缺点也不容忽视。它很难花费，尤其是在较小的交易中，而且与其他投资相比，其流动性有限。此外，黄金在许多司法管辖区都要缴纳销售税，这进一步削弱了其价值。

In contrast, Bitcoin, often touted as a digital alternative to gold, offers several advantages. Its divisibility makes it suitable for a wider range of transactions, and its liquidity is vastly superior, allowing for easier buying and selling. While Bitcoin's value has been more volatile than gold in the past, recent trends show a promising recovery, with no investor who has held Bitcoin for three years suffering a loss.

相比之下，经常被誉为黄金的数字替代品的比特币具有多种优势。它的可分割性使其适合更广泛的交易，并且其流动性极其优越，使得买卖更加容易。虽然比特币的价值过去比黄金波动更大，但最近的趋势显示出有希望的复苏，持有比特币三年的投资者没有遭受损失。

The question of whether to invest in gold or Bitcoin remains a matter of personal preference and circumstances. However, it is crucial to base investment decisions on sound evidence and a thorough understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of each asset class. The anecdotal evidence presented in the Wall Street Journal article does not provide sufficient support for the claim that millennials are embracing gold as a significant investment, and further research is necessary to determine the true extent of this alleged trend.

投资黄金还是比特币的问题仍然是个人喜好和情况的问题。然而，基于可靠的证据和对每种资产类别的优势和劣势的透彻了解来做出投资决策至关重要。 《华尔街日报》文章中提供的轶事证据并没有为千禧一代将黄金视为一项重要投资的说法提供足够的支持，需要进一步研究来确定这种所谓趋势的真实程度。

In the meantime, investors should exercise caution when considering gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty and weigh its drawbacks against the potential advantages of other investments, such as Bitcoin, before making any commitments.

与此同时，投资者在考虑将黄金作为对冲经济不确定性的工具时应谨慎行事，并在做出任何承诺之前权衡其缺点与比特币等其他投资的潜在优势。