当最新的经济数据燃料停滞恐惧时，市场变成负面

一小时前，市场上的另一个积极的一天似乎已经变成了负面的，因为最新的经济数据助长了不断增长的停滞恐惧。

The promise of a positive Thursday in the markets has soured somewhat as the latest economic data has fueled further stagflation fears.

由于最新的经济数据激发了进一步的停滞恐惧，因此市场上积极的星期四有望有些变化。

In the days leading up to the government's own employment numbers, ADP's report on private-sector jobs created in April came in well below expectations on Thursday.

在政府自己的就业人数上的日子里，ADP关于4月创造的私营部门工作的报告远低于周四的期望。

The report showed jobs at 62,000, compared to estimates of 108,000 and March's 147,000. It was also the weakest reading since July 2024.

该报告显示，工作岗位为62,000，而估计为108,000，而3月的147,000。这也是自2024年7月以来最薄弱的读物。

Later in the session, the government's first estimate of first quarter GDP growth showed a decline of 0.3%, compared to economists' forecasts of 0.2%.

在会议上的晚些时候，政府对第一季度GDP增长的第一个估计显示，与经济学家的预测为0.2％相比，它显示为0.3％。

While the quarter ended in March, economic actors — fully aware of coming tariffs — front-loaded imports earlier in the year. As any Econ 101 student can attest, rising imports (absent a corresponding gain in exports) are a drag on GDP growth.

尽管该季度在三月份结束时，经济参与者（充分意识到即将到来的关税）在今年早些时候进行了前进的进口。正如任何ECON 101学生都可以证明的那样，进口量增加（出口相应的增长）是GDP增长的阻力。

Indeed, the export-import imbalance cut GDP growth by nearly 5 percentage points in the first quarter. Also weighing on the top-line reading was the Trump administration's efforts to lower the trade deficit, with government spending acting as a drag on GDP for the first time since 2022.

确实，第一季度出口IMPORT不平衡将GDP增长近5个百分点。特朗普政府还努力降低贸易赤字的努力也是政府的努力，政府的支出自2022年以来首次拖延了GDP。

Turning to inflation, the Core PCE price index embedded within the GDP report showed a rise of 3.5%, compared to forecasts for a gain of 3.1%.output: The upbeat tone in Thursday's markets soured somewhat as the latest economic data had investors adjusting their stagflation fears.

转向通货膨胀，GDP报告中嵌入的核心PCE价格指数显示出3.5％的增长，而预测的增长率为3.1％。输出：周四市场上的乐观基调有些恶化，因为最新的经济数据使投资者调整了他们的停滞恐惧。

Coming two days ahead of the government's own employment numbers, ADP's report on private-sector jobs created in April showed an increase of 62,000. This was significantly lower than economists' predictions of 108,000 and March's figure of 147,000. Moreover, it marked the weakest reading since July 2024.

ADP关于4月创造的私营部门职位的报告提前两天提前两天，显示出62,000人增加。这明显低于经济学家对108,000的预测，而三月的数字为147,000。此外，它标志着自2024年7月以来最弱的读物。

Later in the session, the government's first estimate of first quarter GDP growth revealed a decline of 0.3%, contrasting with economists' forecasts of 0.2%.

在会议上的晚些时候，政府对第一季度GDP增长的第一个估计显示，下降了0.3％，与经济学家的预测相反，它的预测为0.2％。

While the quarter ended in March, economic actors, anticipating the upcoming tariffs, decided to accelerate their imports at the beginning of the year. As any Econ 101 student can attest, a surge in imports, unaccompanied by a parallel increase in exports, exerts a downward pull on GDP growth.

尽管该季度在三月份结束时，经济参与者预计即将到来的关税，决定在年初加速进口。正如任何ECON 101学生都能证明的那样，进口的激增，由于出口的平行增加而无人陪伴，因此对GDP的增长施加了下降。

In fact, the disparity between exports and imports slashed GDP growth by nearly 5 percentage points in the first quarter. Additionally, the Trump administration's efforts to reduce the trade deficit, which involved government spending serving as a drag on GDP for the first time since 2022, further contributed to the decline.

实际上，第一季度的进口和进口之间的差异使GDP增长近5个百分点。此外，特朗普政府为减少贸易赤字做出的努力，该贸易赤字涉及政府自2022年以来首次拖延GDP的支出，进一步导致了这一下降。

Focusing on inflation, the Core PCE price index, a key measure of price stability, was reported to have risen by 3.5%. This finding exceeded economists' estimations of a 3.1% increase.

据报道，重点关注通货膨胀，核心PCE价格指数是价格稳定的关键衡量标准，据报道增长了3.5％。这一发现超出了经济学家对增长3.1％的估计。