摩根大通看好比特币和山寨币市场！

根据最近的一份研究报告，摩根大通预计比特币和山寨币市场将在 8 月份反弹。

Investors who don’t use Bitcoin (BTC) are eagerly awaiting the arrival of altcoin season. After all, it’s been a long time coming. While the prospect of an altcoin season did arise before the recent market crash, according to JPMorgan, there’s still hope for next month.

不使用比特币（BTC）的投资者正在热切等待山寨币季节的到来。毕竟，已经过去很长时间了。摩根大通表示，虽然在最近的市场崩盘之前确实出现了山寨币季节的前景，但下个月仍然充满希望。

JPMorgan is bullish on Bitcoin and the altcoin market. According to a recent research report, the bank expects the Bitcoin and altcoin market to rebound in August. The report also notes that there is a high potential for liquidations to decrease before the end of this month. However, bearish market conditions have led the bank to lower its estimated net inflows for this year. The updated forecast shows that the crypto market could record inflows worth $8 billion, down from previous expectations of $12 billion.

摩根大通看好比特币和山寨币市场。根据最近的一份研究报告，该银行预计比特币和山寨币市场将在 8 月份反弹。报告还指出，本月底之前清算量很有可能减少。然而，看跌的市场状况导致该银行下调了今年的预计净流入。更新后的预测显示，加密货币市场可能录得 80 亿美元的资金流入，低于之前预期的 120 亿美元。

If Bitcoin’s price does rise in August, however, altcoins could also recover, the bank’s forecast suggests. A common misconception is that the altcoin market suffers when BTC rallies, leading to a ‘Bitcoin season’. However, this is not the case, as altcoins are merely following Bitcoin’s lead. In fact, the last time altcoins rose to observe the start of an altcoin season in H2 2023, they were following BTC’s cues.

然而，该银行的预测表明，如果比特币的价格在 8 月份确实上涨，山寨币也可能会复苏。一个常见的误解是，当比特币上涨时，山寨币市场就会受到影响，从而导致“比特币季节”。然而，事实并非如此，因为山寨币只是追随比特币的脚步。事实上，上一次山寨币上涨以观察 2023 年下半年山寨币季节的开始时，他们就是在追随 BTC 的线索。

But even after rising alongside Bitcoin, for it to be considered the start of Altcoin Season, at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins, excluding stablecoins, need to be outperforming BTC. Only then can we start observing the beginning of Altcoin Season.

但即使与比特币一起上涨，要被视为山寨币季节的开始，排名前 50 的山寨币（不包括稳定币）中至少有 75% 的表现需要优于 BTC。只有这样我们才能开始观察山寨币季节的开始。

As you’ve been following on Kriptokoin.com, altcoins are not even close to witnessing an altcoin season. This is because nearly 70% of altcoins have been outperforming BTC over the last 90 days. The green altcoins that have outperformed Bitcoin include Toncoin (TON), PEPE, BONK, Kaspa (KAS), Monero (XMR) and Tron (TRX). All other tokens are performing poorly against BTC. So if there is any solid chance to enter an altcoin season, it will probably be in August.

正如您一直在 Kriptokoin.com 上关注的那样，山寨币距离见证山寨币季节还差得远。这是因为近 70% 的山寨币在过去 90 天内的表现优于 BTC。表现优于比特币的绿色山寨币包括 Toncoin (TON)、PEPE、BONK、Kaspa (KAS)、Monero (XMR) 和 Tron (TRX)。所有其他代币相对于 BTC 的表现都很差。因此，如果有任何确实的机会进入山寨币季节，那可能是在八月。

Spot Bitcoin ETFs reach fifth consecutive day of positive flows

现货比特币 ETF 连续第五天出现正流量

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded daily net inflows totaling $78.93 million on Thursday, extending the positive streak to a fifth day.

美国现货比特币 ETF 周四录得每日净流入总额达 7893 万美元，连续第五天净流入。

BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest spot Bitcoin ETF by net asset value, recorded the largest net inflow of the day at $72.09 million, according to SoSoValue data. The fund was also the most traded Bitcoin ETF on Wednesday with $725.61 million in volume.

根据 SoSoValue 数据，贝莱德旗下的 IBIT（按资产净值计算最大的现货比特币 ETF）录得当日最大净流入，达 7209 万美元。该基金也是周三交易量最大的比特币 ETF，交易量为 7.2561 亿美元。

Fidelity’s FBTC saw a net inflow of $32.69 million. Bitwise’s spot Bitcoin fund also attracted $7.53 million, while Ark Invest and 21Shares’ ETF added $4.31 million.

富达的FBTC净流入3269万美元。 Bitwise 的现货比特币基金也吸引了 753 万美元，而 Ark Invest 和 21Shares 的 ETF 则吸引了 431 万美元。

Wednesday’s inflows were offset by net outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC worth $37.69 million. Six other funds, including VanEck’s HODL, reported zero flows yesterday.

周三的资金流入被 Grayscale 的 GBTC 价值 3769 万美元的净流出所抵消。包括 VanEck 的 HODL 在内的其他六只基金昨天报告资金流量为零。

US spot Bitcoin funds traded a total of $1.31 billion on July 11. Trading volume in spot Bitcoin ETFs remained significantly lower compared to March, when volume topped $8 billion over several days. ETFs have generated a total net inflow of $15.5 billion since their launch in January.

7 月 11 日，美国现货比特币基金的交易总额为 13.1 亿美元。与 3 月份相比，现货比特币 ETF 的交易量仍显着下降，当时的交易量在几天内突破了 80 亿美元。自 1 月份推出以来，ETF 已产生总计 155 亿美元的净流入。

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