关税对比特币的影响

该报告解开了这种反应背后的机制，打破了关税的工作方式，对通货膨胀和资本市场的影响以及为什么它们证明是比特币的看跌催化剂。

It is likely not the direct effect of Tariffs that are crashing markets but the wider impact they may yet have on the US and global economy. Tariffs are not just trade policies; they are economic levers that influence inflation, interest rates, and investor behavior.

关税可能不是崩溃市场的直接影响，而是它们可能尚未对美国和全球经济产生的更大影响。关税不仅是贸易政策；它们是影响通货膨胀，利率和投资者行为的经济杠杆。

For better or for worse, BTC exists within the Dollar-Based Financial System. It is priced in US dollars, any shifts in dollar strength, interest strengths, or liquidity directly affect BTC’s purchasing power and attractiveness. BTC remains tied to the US economy and its currency. The current US tariff concerns are affecting crypto, tech stocks, and every major capital market.

无论好坏，BTC都存在于美元的金融体系内。它的价格为美元，美元实力的任何变化，利息优势或流动性直接影响BTC的购买力和吸引力。 BTC与美国经济及其货币保持联系。当前的美国关税问题正在影响加密货币，技术股票和每个主要的资本市场。

This report unpacks the mechanisms behind this reaction, breaking down how tariffs work, their impact on inflation and capital markets, and why they are proving to be a bearish catalyst for Bitcoin.

该报告解开了这种反应背后的机制，打破了关税的工作方式，对通货膨胀和资本市场的影响以及为什么它们证明是比特币的看跌催化剂。

The White House Is Pivoting Toward Economic Challenges After a Period of Stability

一段时间稳定后，白宫正朝着经济挑战枢纽

This view crystallized in the third week of March when President Trump, when asked by a reporter about the recessionary effects of the Tariffs, confirmed that they may force the U.S. economy into a ‘Period of Transition’.

这种观点在3月的第三周结晶，当时特朗普总统被记者询问关税的经济效果时，证实他们可能会迫使美国经济进入“过渡时期”。

Another new White House policy stream is also having an effect on digital asset prices. On January 23rd, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order that has the aim of “Strengthening American Leadership in ’Digital Financial Technology’”.

另一个新的白宫政策流也对数字资产价格产生了影响。 1月23日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）签署了一项行政命令，其目的是“加强美国在'数字金融技术方面的领导力”。

“The digital asset industry plays a crucial role in innovation and economic development in the United States, as well as our Nation’s international leadership,” the order explains.

该命令解释说：“数字资产行业在美国以及我们国家的国际领导力中在创新和经济发展中起着至关重要的作用。”

“Protecting and promoting the ability of individual citizens and private-sector entities alike to access and use for lawful purposes open public blockchain networks without undue interference, censorship, or other restriction.” is an example of its goals. Most of the order is dedicated to establishing technology and rules around crypto and its development in the U.S.

“保护和促进个人公民和私营部门实体的能力，无论是在没有过度干预，审查或其他限制的情况下开放公共区块链网络而访问和使用的能力。”是其目标的一个例子。大部分订单致力于建立围绕加密货币及其在美国发展的技术和规则

One of its most important aspects is the creation of a presidential working group to consider a national digital asset stockpile, “potentially derived from cryptocurrencies lawfully seized by the Federal Government through its law enforcement efforts.” The EO created an immediate buzz and bullish momentum for digital assets.

其最重要的方面之一是建立一个总统工作组来考虑一项国家数字资产库存，“有可能源自联邦政府通过其执法工作法律征收的加密货币。” EO为数字资产创造了直接的嗡嗡声和看涨势头。

“A U.S. Crypto Reserve will elevate this critical industry after years of corrupt attacks by the Biden Administration, which is why my Executive Order on Digital Assets directed the Presidential Working Group to move forward on a Crypto Strategic Reserve that includes XRP, SOL, and ADA,” US President Trump expounded, on March 2nd, via the Truth Social media platform. This crystallized some of the outlines of the executive order. About an hour after the initial post, Trump clarified — “And, obviously, BTC and ETH, as other valuable cryptocurrencies, will be the heart of the Reserve. I also love Bitcoin and Ethereum!”

“在拜登政府遭到了多年的腐败攻击之后，美国加密储备将提升这个关键行业，这就是为什么我对数字资产的行政命令指示总统工作组推进了包括XRP，SOL和ADA在内的加密战略储备，”美国总统特朗普于3月2日通过真实社会媒体媒体平台揭示了美国总统特朗普。这结晶了行政命令的一些轮廓。在首次发表后大约一个小时后，特朗普澄清了 - “而且，显然，BTC和ETH作为其他有价值的加密货币，将是保护区的核心。我也喜欢比特币和以太坊！”

However, on Friday last week David Sacks, Trump’s AI and Crypto Czar, revealed that Trump’s comments were simply expository and not a firm commitment towards creating a reserve. This dampened much of the positive momentum that Trump’s initial post created.

但是，在上周的星期五，特朗普的AI和加密沙皇戴维·萨克斯（David Sacks）透露，特朗普的评论只是说明性的，而不是坚定的承诺。这削弱了特朗普最初的职位创造的许多积极势头。

Brave New Coin has previously covered the variety of factors that influence the price of BTC, including fundamental onchain metrics and miner activity.

Brave New Coin先前涵盖了影响BTC价格的各种因素，包括基本的OnChain指标和矿工活动。

The price of Bitcoin can be affected by regulatory decisions like the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, fundamental events like the halving which affects the flow of new BTC, and price movements that may be tied to historical price activity.

比特币的价格可能会受到监管决策的影响，例如在美国获得现场比特币ETF的批准，影响新BTC流动的减半以及可能与历史价格活动相关的价格变动的基本事件。

The most obvious and clear factor driving the price of BTC is demand to use it, which can be measured by adoption. Are people using BTC as an alternative for money? Is it being stored away for a rainy day like gold?

最明显，最明显的因素推动了BTC的价格使用它，可以通过采用来衡量。人们是否使用BTC作为金钱的替代方案？像黄金一样，它被存放在雨天吗？

Is there a demand to use BTC, outside of money, because of the utility of an immutable ledger of accounts? An example of this is the Ordinals phenomenon.

由于不可变的帐户账户的效用，是否需要使用BTC（在货币之外）使用BTC？一个例子是序数现象。

What’s Driving Bitcoin Adoption in 2025

什么是在2025年驾驶比特币采用

Bitcoin company River Financial in February 2025 published a report titled ‘What’s Driving Bitcoin Adoption in 2025’. Much of the report is focused on the recent growth of the Bitcoin network. It reports a surge in development activity, the decentralization of hashrate, and the increase in the usage of BTC for high-value transactions.

比特币公司River Financial于2025年2月发表了一份报告，标题为“驾驶比特币在2025年采用什么”。该报告的大部分都集中在比特币网络的最新增长上。它报告了开发活动的激增，哈希酸盐的权力下放以及BTC对高价值交易的使用增加。

They note that in previous cycles accumulation was driven by individuals but in 2024 institutions and ETFs were the primary accumulators. They also report that 52% of the top 25 Hedge Funds and RIAs own BTC ETFs.

他们指出，在先前的周期中，积累是由个人驱动的，但在2024年，机构和ETF是主要的蓄能器。他们还报告说，在前25名对冲基金和RIA拥有BTC ETF中，有52％。

River reports that more public companies are holding BTC as treasury assets than ever before, larger-scale Bitcoin custody solutions are improving, and the list of nation-states embarking on BTC is growing rapidly.

River报告称，更多的上市公司将BTC作为国库资产，比以往任何时候都在改善大规模的比特币监护权解决方案，而投入BTC的民族国家列表正在迅速增长。

There are clearly agents across the world who want to buy crypto and these adoption factors sit behind headline macro events like the Trump Tariffs or a crypto reserve. Brave New Coin has also discussed how much speculation is built into the price of Bitcoin because of optimism surrounding what it could be rather than what it is.

显然，世界各地的代理商想购买加密货币，这些采用因素就位于标题宏观事件之后，例如特朗普关税或加密储备。勇敢的新硬币还讨论了比特币价格内置了多少猜测，因为围绕它可能而不是它的本质。

Today, in the short term, growth in BTC

今天，在短期内，BTC的增长