金银反弹，中国制造

黄金价格与美国债券市场相关，美元影响金/银比率。中国市场黄金和白银的溢价表明

Gold prices correlate closely with the US bond market, and the US Dollar influences the Gold/Silver ratio. Chinese market premiums for Gold and Silver suggest continued uptrends. Inflation-adjusted peaks indicate that current prices are not overly expensive, implying potential for further gains.

黄金价格与美国债券市场密切相关，美元影响金/银比率。中国市场的黄金和白银溢价表明其持续上涨趋势。经通胀调整后的峰值表明，目前的价格并不算太贵，这意味着进一步上涨的潜力。

Many market participants continue to pay attention to real market yield and therefore see no reason to invest in Gold. They claim that there is no longer any correlation. But that is not true: the Gold price does indeed continue to correlate with the US bond market, just in a different way: the percentage changes over the last six months show an almost perfect correlation…

许多市场参与者继续关注实际市场收益率，因此认为没有理由投资黄金。他们声称不再有任何相关性。但事实并非如此：金价确实继续与美国债券市场相关，只是以不同的方式：过去六个月的百分比变化显示出几乎完美的相关性......

There is an equally almost perfect correlation between the US Dollar and the Gold/Silver ratio. The precious metal Silver is increasingly becoming an industrial metal due to demand for PV. Pessimistic economy, the ratio rises. Optimistic economy, the ratio falls. Recently, the ratio has fallen massively. It will now be interesting to see what happens to the US dollar…

美元与金/银比率之间同样存在近乎完美的相关性。由于光伏需求，贵金属白银日益成为一种工业金属。经济悲观，该比例上升。经济乐观，该比率下降。最近，该比率大幅下降。现在看看美元会发生什么将会很有趣......

While the Gold/Silver ratio has fallen, Gold and Silver performed very well. Are they now expensive? Not adjusted for inflation. Adjusted for inflation, the top for Gold is just over USD 2500. Silver has two important inflation-adjusted highs in the past: 2011 at around USD 70, 1980 at around USD 152. The Gold/Silver ratio was already around 90 in the 1990s, adjusted for inflation… But almost 50 years ago it was just under 30…

虽然金/银比率有所下降，但黄金和白银的表现却非常出色。它们现在贵吗？未根据通货膨胀进行调整。经通胀调整后，黄金的最高价略高于 2500 美元。白银过去有两个重要的经通胀调整后的高点：2011 年约为 70 美元，1980 年约为 152 美元。金/银比率在 90 年代已约为 90 ，根据通货膨胀进行调整……但大约 50 年前，这个数字还不到 30……

Geologically, the Gold/Silver ratio is between 15 and 20. If it were based on annual production over the last ten years, it would have to be in the region of 7… (2023 production numbers will be updated soon…)

从地质角度来看，金/银比率在 15 到 20 之间。如果按照过去十年的年产量计算，则必须在 7 左右……（2023 年产量数据将很快更新……）

What’s the situation in day trading? Interesting! The gold price recently corrected slightly again. And my analysis of gold trading in China immediately showed massive “exaggeration” (red area), an exaggeration to the downside, which is usually answered with a counter-reaction. Very bullish!

日内交易的情况如何？有趣的！金价近期再次小幅回调。我对中国黄金交易的分析立即显示出巨大的“夸大”（红色区域），夸大了下行趋势，通常会引起反作用。非常看好！

The cycle continues to be confirmed: An important high could be expected in the course of late June/early July. Let’s hope for all Gold and Silver bulls that this cycle will finally come to an end!

该周期继续得到确认：预计六月底/七月初会出现一个重要的高点。让我们祝愿所有黄金和白银多头这一周期最终能够结束！

The Goldminers Index GDM continues to have high intrinsic strength…

金矿指数 GDM 继续具有较高的内在实力......

For many, the performance of the HUI Index to date has been disappointing. However, it is important to remember that the Oil price is a very important cost factor for Gold production. Accordingly, there is a very high correlation between the ratio of the HUI gold mining index and the Oil price as well as the ratio between the gold price and the HUI: if the Oil price falls in relation to the Gold price, the shares of Gold miners can see high profits…

对于许多人来说，HUI 指数迄今为止的表现令人失望。然而，重要的是要记住，石油价格是黄金生产的一个非常重要的成本因素。因此，HUI金矿指数与油价的比率以及黄金价格与HUI的比率之间存在非常高的相关性：如果油价相对于黄金价格下跌，那么黄金的份额就会下降。矿工可以看到高额利润……

What does the near future look like? The price of Gold and Silver is being dictated by the Chinese market these days. Chinese investors in Shanghai are still paying a premium of almost 2% for physical Gold.

不久的将来会是什么样子？如今，黄金和白银的价格由中国市场决定。上海的中国投资者仍为实物黄金支付近2%的溢价。

And they (or the solar industry) even pay a premium of 12.5 % for physical silver! As long as these premiums remain in place, we see no reason for the uptrend in Gold and Silver to come to an end…

他们（或太阳能行业）甚至为实物白银支付 12.5% 的溢价！只要这些溢价保持不变，我们认为黄金和白银的上涨趋势没有理由结束……