德国的比特币困境：战略错误还是明智之举？

今年早些时候，德国刑事警察局 (LKA) 从 Movie2k.to 网站查获了 49,857 个比特币，价值近 30 亿美元，该网站涉及洗钱和其他非法活动。

Earlier this year, Germany’s Criminal Police Office (LKA) made headlines after seizing 49,857 bitcoins from Movie2k.to, a website linked to money laundering and other illicit activities. The bitcoins, valued at almost $3 billion at the time, were subsequently moved from a wallet linked to the German government.

今年早些时候，德国刑事警察局 (LKA) 从 Movie2k.to（一个与洗钱和其他非法活动有关的网站）查获 49,857 枚比特币后成为头条新闻。这些比特币当时价值近 30 亿美元，随后从与德国政府相关的钱包中转移。

These transactions sparked immediate speculation and reports of the government “dumping Bitcoin,” which caused brief market sell-offs and pushed Bitcoin to levels not seen in months. However, a closer examination of the events reveals a more nuanced reality.

这些交易立即引发了有关政府“倾销比特币”的猜测和报道，导致市场短暂抛售，并将比特币推至数月未见的水平。然而，对这些事件的仔细研究揭示了更微妙的现实。

Saxony Implements Usual Legal Procedures in $2.2Bn Bitcoin Sale

萨克森州在 22 亿美元的比特币销售中实施通常的法律程序

While several reports and alerts accused the German government of dumping Bitcoin, it’s important to clarify that only Saxony, a relatively small state with a huge stash of Bitcoins, is actually conducting the sales.

虽然一些报告和警报指责德国政府倾销比特币，但重要的是要澄清，只有萨克森州这个拥有大量比特币的相对较小的州实际上在进行销售。

Saxony’s decision to dump its bitcoins follows strict legal protocols set by the World Bank for handling assets seized in criminal investigations, which mandates liquidation within a specific timeframe.

萨克森州抛售比特币的决定遵循世界银行为处理刑事调查中扣押的资产制定的严格法律协议，该协议要求在特定时间范围内进行清算。

Typically, seized assets are sold only after judicial approval, but states can request emergency sales in the face of rapid devaluation or storage challenges. Saxony’s decision to expedite the sale stems from concerns over Bitcoin’s volatility.

通常，扣押的资产只有在司法批准后才会出售，但在面临快速贬值或存储挑战时，各州可以请求紧急出售。萨克森州决定加快出售是出于对比特币波动性的担忧。

While Saxony initially flooded the market with its bitcoins, the state is now grappling with an oversupply issue, as exchanges have returned over $200 million due to lower-than-anticipated demand for its assets. It’s likely s

虽然萨克森州最初向市场大量涌入比特币，但该州目前正面临供应过剩的问题，由于对其资产的需求低于预期，交易所已返还超过 2 亿美元。这很可能是

However, recent transactions indicate a possible oversell, as Saxony received $200 million back from exchanges, suggesting a lower-than-expected demand for the large volume of Bitcoin put up for sale. The state may likely resort to offloading its stash over the counter, as Justin Sun suggested.

然而，最近的交易表明可能出现超卖，因为萨克森州从交易所收回了 2 亿美元，这表明对大量待售比特币的需求低于预期。正如孙宇晨建议的那样，该州可能会通过柜台出售其库存。

https://twitter.com/ArkhamIntel/status/1810315954431176898

https://twitter.com/ArkhamIntel/status/1810315954431176898

Germany’s Debate: Strategic Error or Smart Move?

德国之争：战略错误还是明智之举？

While Saxony adheres to the World Bank’s guidelines, its decision to dump bitcoins has drawn criticism from the crypto community.

尽管萨克森州遵守世界银行的指导方针，但其抛售比特币的决定引起了加密社区的批评。

Joana Cotar, a member of the German Bundestag, recently expressed on X that the government should retain Bitcoin as a “strategic reserve currency” instead of selling it.

德国联邦议院议员Joana Cotar最近在X上表示，政府应该保留比特币作为“战略储备货币”，而不是出售它。

Tron founder Justin Sun even proposed buying Bitcoin directly from the German government to lessen the adverse effects on market prices.

Tron创始人孙宇晨甚至提议直接从德国政府购买比特币，以减轻对市场价格的不利影响。

Critics have even argued that Germany’s conversion of Bitcoin into fiat currency, totaling over $390 million in recent transactions, could represent a strategic error. They contend that exchanging Bitcoin for fiat, which can be infinitely produced, is unfavorable compared to retaining Bitcoin, which is scarce and requires significant energy to mine.

批评者甚至认为，德国最近将比特币兑换为法定货币的交易总额超过 3.9 亿美元，这可能是一个战略错误。他们认为，与保留比特币相比，将比特币换成可以无限生产的法定货币是不利的，因为比特币是稀缺的，需要大量的能源来开采。

From a geopolitical perspective, some believe Germany is missing an opportunity by not holding onto Bitcoin, citing its scarcity and the extensive energy involved in its production as advantages over fiat currency.

从地缘政治角度来看，一些人认为德国不持有比特币就错失了机会，认为比特币的稀缺性和生产过程中涉及的广泛能源是相对于法定货币的优势。

The decision by Germany to offload part of its Bitcoin holdings has sparked considerable discussion within the cryptocurrency community, underscoring its wider market and geopolitical ramifications. However, the effects, in retrospect, may be overblown.

德国抛售部分比特币的决定引发了加密货币社区的广泛讨论，凸显了其更广泛的市场和地缘政治影响。然而，回想起来，其影响可能被夸大了。

Bitcoin Recovers to $59K Amid Market Fluctuations, with Minimal Impact from Government-Seized Assets

比特币在市场波动中恢复至 5.9 万美元，政府扣押资产的影响微乎其微

According to statistics from CryptoQuant, provided by Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin has accumulated approximately $224 billion since 2023, with only 4% stemming from government-seized assets. The data indicates that government-seized Bitcoin has contributed $9 billion to the market value since 2023.

根据 Ki Young Ju 提供的 CryptoQuant 的统计数据，自 2023 年以来，比特币已经积累了约 2240 亿美元，其中只有 4% 来自政府扣押的资产。数据显示，自 2023 年以来，政府扣押的比特币已为市值贡献了 90 亿美元。

According to him, the market reactions to government-linked wallet sell-offs are generally exaggerated , considering the overall value of Bitcoin inflows over the past year.

他表示，考虑到过去一年比特币流入的总价值，市场对政府相关钱包抛售的反应普遍被夸大了。

This market cap data suggests that government-owned Bitcoins hold minimal and insignificant influence compared to broader market funds. The realized market cap, a distinctive valuation method for Bitcoin, is employed here. It calculates based on the last transaction price of each Bitcoin from its current location, offering a more accurate representation of how much fiat money has flowed into Bitcoin.

这一市值数据表明，与更广泛的市场基金相比，政府拥有的比特币的影响力微乎其微。这里采用的是已实现市值，这是比特币独特的估值方法。它根据当前位置的每个比特币的最后交易价格进行计算，更准确地表示有多少法定货币流入了比特币。

Credit: Cryptoquant

图片来源：Cryptoquant

At press time, Bitcoin exchanged hands at $58,958 , regaining some of its losses over the past week. The cryptocurrency experienced significant declines recently, marking the steepest drop since the beginning of the bull cycle at the 2022 low. Despite ongoing challenges, bulls need to drive it past the $60,000 threshold for Bitcoin’s price to ascend again.

截至发稿，比特币交易价格为 58,958 美元，收复了过去一周的部分跌幅。该加密货币最近经历了大幅下跌，创下自牛市周期开始以来的最大跌幅，跌至 2022 年低点。尽管面临持续的挑战，多头仍需要将其推过 60,000 美元的门槛，比特币的价格才能再次上涨。