财政主导地位威胁比特币的未来

渣打银行的 Geoff Kendrick 表示，以不可持续的债务和赤字为特征的美国财政主导地位，为比特币提供了一个机会，可以用来对冲去美元化和国债市场信心下降的风险。此外，特朗普当选可能会通过放松监管和批准现货 ETF 来提振比特币的前景。摩根大通首席执行官杰米戴蒙表达了对过度联邦支出及其通胀后果的担忧，这与肯德里克的财政主导地位分析一致。

The Impending Fiscal Dominance Threat and its Unprecedented Implications for Bitcoin

迫在眉睫的财政主导威胁及其对比特币前所未有的影响

Amidst the ever-escalating national debt and unsustainable budget deficits plaguing the United States, there looms a grave concern: the specter of fiscal dominance. This economic phenomenon occurs when the government's fiscal actions overshadow the independence of monetary policy, potentially undermining the ability of central banks to control inflation. Such a scenario could have dire consequences for the Treasury yield curve, resulting in a widened yield spread between short-term and long-term Treasury bonds.

在困扰美国的不断升级的国债和不可持续的预算赤字中，存在着一个严重的担忧：财政主导的幽灵。当政府的财政行动掩盖了货币政策的独立性时，就会出现这种经济现象，从而可能削弱央行控制通胀的能力。这种情况可能会对国债收益率曲线产生可怕的后果，导致短期国债和长期国债之间的收益率利差扩大。

As Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered astutely observes, fiscal dominance would unleash a cascade of implications for the Treasury yield curve, including:

正如渣打银行的杰夫·肯德里克敏锐地观察到的那样，财政主导地位将对国债收益率曲线产生一系列影响，包括：

• A widening yield spread between the two-year (US2Y) note and the ten-year (US10Y) note, steepening the yield gap.
• A sharper increase in inflation breakevens (a market-based measure of anticipated inflation) than inflation-adjusted yields, signaling a loss of confidence in the government's ability to control inflation.
• A higher term premium, reflecting a greater demand for compensation by investors for holding longer-dated bonds over shorter-term ones.

Kendrick emphasizes the profound relationship between bitcoin (BTC-USD) and each of these yield curve effects. In a state of fiscal dominance, bitcoin is poised to emerge as a formidable hedge against de-dollarization and the inevitable erosion of trust in the US Treasury market.

两年期（US2Y）国债和十年期（US10Y）国债之间的收益率利差不断扩大，收益率差距变得更加陡峭。通胀盈亏平衡点（基于市场的预期通胀指标）增幅高于通胀调整后的收益率，表明人们对政府控制通胀的能力失去信心。期限溢价较高，反映出投资者对持有长期债券的补偿需求高于短期债券。肯德里克强调了比特币（BTC-USD）之间的深刻关系以及这些收益率曲线效应中的每一个。在财政主导地位下，比特币有望成为对抗去美元化和美国国债市场信任不可避免受到侵蚀的强大对冲工具。

Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, a long-standing bitcoin critic, appears to share Kendrick's fiscal dominance assessment. In a recent fireside chat, Dimon acknowledged the "booming" US economy, but attributed its strength to the government's excessive spending, emphasizing the inflationary risks inherent in a debt-fueled economic system.

长期对比特币持批评态度的摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙 (Jamie Dimon) 似乎同意肯德里克的财政主导地位评估。在最近的炉边谈话中，戴蒙承认美国经济“蓬勃发展”，但将其强劲归因于政府的过度支出，并强调债务驱动的经济体系固有的通胀风险。

Dimon's apprehension aligns with the Standard Chartered report's observations, underscoring the vulnerability of the US dollar's dominance as the global reserve currency. Historically, bitcoin has exhibited resilience amidst banking system stress and central bank monetization of government debt through quantitative easing. However, the report cautions that heightened geopolitical risks could prove detrimental to the cryptocurrency.

戴蒙的担忧与渣打银行报告的观察结果一致，凸显了美元作为全球储备货币的主导地位的脆弱性。从历史上看，比特币在银行系统压力和央行通过量化宽松将政府债务货币化的情况下表现出了韧性。然而，报告警告说，地缘政治风险加剧可能对加密货币不利。

Despite concerns over inflation, many proponents advocate for bitcoin as an effective inflation hedge. While the token's general uptrend lends credence to this perception, there have been notable instances where bitcoin's value has declined or remained subdued following sharp increases in inflation.

尽管担心通货膨胀，许多支持者仍主张将比特币作为有效的通货膨胀对冲工具。虽然该代币的总体上涨趋势证实了这种看法，但在通货膨胀急剧上升后，比特币的价值已经下降或保持低迷的情况也有明显的例子。

Kendrick further argues that a Trump election victory could serve as a positive catalyst for bitcoin due to "looser regulation and the approval of US spot ETFs." While the Biden administration has adopted a more stringent approach towards cryptocurrencies, Trump has indicated a willingness to adopt a less restrictive stance if re-elected.

肯德里克进一步认为，由于“宽松的监管和美国现货 ETF 的批准”，特朗普的选举胜利可能成为比特币的积极催化剂。虽然拜登政府对加密货币采取了更严格的态度，但特朗普表示，如果连任，愿意采取较少限制的立场。

In light of these anticipations, Kendrick reiterates his bullish price targets for bitcoin, projecting $150,000 by the end of 2024 and $200,000 by the end of 2025. The consensus among Seeking Alpha analysts echoes Kendrick's optimism, with a majority recommending bitcoin as a "Buy."

鉴于这些预期，Kendrick 重申了他对比特币的乐观价格目标，预计到 2024 年底将达到 15 万美元，2025 年底将达到 20 万美元。Seeking Alpha 分析师的共识呼应了 Kendrick 的乐观态度，大多数人建议“买入”比特币。 ”

At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading at $61.3K, marking a 13% decline month-over-month, a 45% year-to-date gain, and a remarkable 122% increase from a year ago. Despite reaching an all-time high of over $73K in March, bitcoin has experienced a pullback as market participants adjust their rate-cut expectations in the face of persistent inflation data.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 6.13 万美元，环比下跌 13%，年初至今上涨 45%，较去年同期大幅上涨 122%。尽管 3 月份比特币达到了超过 7.3 万美元的历史新高，但随着市场参与者面对持续的通胀数据调整降息预期，比特币经历了回调。

It is imperative to recognize that the intersection of politics and financial news is inevitable. As such, we welcome readers to engage in a separate dialogue focused on the political aspects of this discussion.

必须认识到政治新闻和财经新闻的交叉是不可避免的。因此，我们欢迎读者就本次讨论的政治方面进行单独的对话。