随着第四次减半的临近，专家预测比特币市值将达到数万亿美元

随着比特币第四次减半的临近，分析师预计其价值将大幅飙升，市值可能达到惊人的 35 万亿美元。在全球预期不断增长和专家预测不一的情况下，采矿奖励从每个区块 6.25 比特币减少到 3.125 比特币，这将重塑加密货币的经济。

Bitcoin Primed for Historic Surge as Fourth Halving Looms, Experts Predict Trillion-Dollar Market Cap

随着第四次减半的临近，比特币有望迎来历史性飙升，专家预测市值将达到万亿美元

As the long-awaited fourth Bitcoin halving approaches, crypto experts are abuzz with predictions of a dramatic surge in the cryptocurrency's value, potentially catapulating it to a staggering $35 trillion market capitalization.

随着人们期待已久的第四次比特币减半的临近，加密货币专家们纷纷预测，这种加密货币的价值将大幅飙升，市值可能会飙升至惊人的 35 万亿美元。

This pivotal event, scheduled to occur later today, will witness a 50% reduction in the block reward for Bitcoin miners, from 6.25 to 3.125 Bitcoin per block. This supply constriction is anticipated to reshape the cryptocurrency's economics and trigger a significant increase in demand from investors.

这一关键事件定于今天晚些时候发生，届时比特币矿工的区块奖励将减少 50%，从每个区块 6.25 比特币减少到 3.125 比特币。预计这种供应紧张将重塑加密货币的经济并引发投资者需求的大幅增加。

Analyzing historical data, Noelle Acheson, Bitcoin analyst and author of the "Crypto is Macro Now" newsletter, suggests that Bitcoin could reach an impressive $450,000 within a year after the halving. However, if the current cycle mirrors the 2016 halving, Acheson predicts a more conservative target of $270,000.

比特币分析师、《Crypto is Macro Now》通讯作者 Noelle Acheson 通过分析历史数据表明，比特币在减半后的一年内可能会达到令人印象深刻的 45 万美元。然而，如果当前周期与 2016 年减半相同，艾奇逊预计更保守的目标为 27 万美元。

More bullish predictions come from highly regarded analyst PlanB, who employs the "Stock-to-Flow" ratio to assess Bitcoin's value. According to PlanB's model, Bitcoin's price is poised to reach a staggering $1.8 million per coin, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately $35 trillion.

更乐观的预测来自备受推崇的分析师 PlanB，他使用“库存与流量”比率来评估比特币的价值。根据 PlanB 的模型，比特币的价格有望达到每枚 180 万美元，市值约为 35 万亿美元。

Duncan Ash, head of strategy at Coincover, concurs that the supply-demand dynamics will create upward pressure on Bitcoin's price. However, he anticipates that the increased price will eventually deter new investors, bringing the market to a more balanced equilibrium.

Coincover 策略主管邓肯·阿什 (Duncan Ash) 也认为，供需动态将对比特币价格造成上行压力。然而，他预计价格上涨最终将阻止新投资者，使市场达到更加平衡的平衡。

"In the mid to long term, we're likely to see a stabilizing effect on the market," Ash adds. "The industry will emerge with more users, a higher market cap, and greater liquidity."

“从中长期来看，我们可能会看到市场的稳定效应，”阿什补充道。 “该行业将出现更多的用户、更高的市值和更大的流动性。”

The upcoming halving stands out as the first to occur outside of the Federal Reserve's zero-interest-rate policy era. It also follows the launch of Wall Street Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and China's expulsion of Bitcoin miners in 2021.

即将到来的减半是美联储零利率政策时代之外的首次减半。此前，华尔街比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的推出以及中国于 2021 年驱逐了比特币矿工。

Amid the excitement surrounding the halving, concerns have been raised about the security of Bitcoin wallets. Binance, one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges, recently issued a "credible" iPhone hack warning, urging users to update their software and enhance security measures.

在围绕减半的兴奋之中，人们对比特币钱包的安全性提出了担忧。全球最大的加密货币交易所之一币安最近发布了“可信”的 iPhone 黑客攻击警告，敦促用户更新软件并加强安全措施。

Despite these concerns, the overwhelming consensus among experts is that Bitcoin is poised for unprecedented growth. The halving event is expected to disrupt the cryptocurrency's economics and trigger a surge in demand that could propel it to new heights.

尽管存在这些担忧，专家们的压倒性共识是，比特币有望实现前所未有的增长。减半事件预计将扰乱加密货币的经济并引发需求激增，从而将其推向新的高度。

As investors eagerly anticipate the halving, it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin's price will follow the bullish predictions and reach the stratospheric levels forecast by some analysts. However, one thing is certain: this historic event is bound to have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market and the broader economic landscape.

由于投资者热切期待减半，比特币的价格是否会遵循看涨预测并达到一些分析师预测的高位还有待观察。然而，有一点是确定的：这一历史性事件必将对加密货币市场和更广泛的经济格局产生深远影响。