以太坊质押困境：在不断变化的格局中平衡回报和风险

随着越来越多的 ETH 被抵押，以太坊的发行模式正在受到审查，引发了人们对通胀压力和中心化等潜在负面影响的担忧。以太坊基金会研究人员提议调整发行政策以维持平衡的质押比例，引发了社区内的争议。批评者反对改变货币政策，理由是担心破坏以太坊的基本原则和对机构投资者的吸引力，而支持者则主张先发制人地解决与过高的质押率相关的潜在风险。

Ethereum's Staking Conundrum: Balancing Rewards and Risks

以太坊的质押难题：平衡回报和风险

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has undergone a significant shift with its transition to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism. This move has introduced a new dimension to Ethereum's economics: staking.

以太坊是市值第二大的加密货币，随着向权益证明（PoS）共识机制的转变，以太坊经历了重大转变。此举为以太坊经济引入了一个新的维度：质押。

Surge in ETH Staking

ETH 质押激增

Since the "Merge," which marked Ethereum's transition to PoS, the amount of staked ETH has grown exponentially. As of April 2024, approximately 31 million ETH, representing around 26% of the total supply, is staked. This growth is fueled by factors such as enhanced network security, lower barriers to entry through liquid staking providers, and additional rewards like Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) and airdrop farming.

自标志着以太坊向 PoS 过渡的“合并”以来，抵押的 ETH 数量呈指数级增长。截至 2024 年 4 月，已有约 3100 万枚 ETH 被质押，约占总供应量的 26%。这种增长的推动因素包括增强的网络安全性、降低流动质押提供商的进入门槛以及最大可提取价值（MEV）和空投农业等额外奖励。

Projected Staking Ratio Increase

预计质押率增加

Experts predict that the staking ratio will continue to rise in the coming years due to several factors:

专家预测，由于以下几个因素，未来几年质押率将继续上升：

• Rising ETH Price: Higher ETH prices make staking more attractive due to increased USD-denominated yields.
• Restaking Demand: Platforms like EigenLayer encourage restaking of ETH, with potential airdrops adding to the allure.
• Interest Rates: Lower interest rates can drive institutional capital towards staking for better returns.
• Liquid Staking Tokens (LSTs): These tokens simplify staking and are expected to attract significant inflows.
• Staked ETH ETFs: The possibility of Ethereum-based ETFs that include staking in their models could introduce a broader audience to staking.

Concerns over High Staking Ratio

ETH 价格上涨：由于以美元计价的收益率增加，ETH 价格上涨使得质押更具吸引力。重新质押需求：EigenLayer 等平台鼓励重新质押 ETH，潜在的空投增加了吸引力。利率：较低的利率可以推动机构资本进行质押流动质押代币（LST）：这些代币简化了质押，预计将吸引大量资金流入。质押 ETH ETF：基于以太坊的 ETF 在其模型中包含质押的可能性可能会吸引更广泛的受众参与质押。高质押率

However, the prospect of a continuously increasing staking ratio has raised concerns among Ethereum researchers and the community. Ethereum Foundation researchers Ansgar Dietrichs and Caspar Schwarz outlined potential issues in a recent proposal:

然而，质押率持续增加的前景引起了以太坊研究人员和社区的担忧。以太坊基金会研究人员 Ansgar Dietrichs 和 Caspar Schwarz 在最近的提案中概述了潜在问题：

• Diminishing Real Staking Yield: As the staking ratio approaches 100%, real yields from staking could decline to negligible levels.
• ETH as "Expensive" Money: High staking rates could make holding ETH costly due to increased inflationary pressure on non-stakers.
• Threat to Default Currency Status: The expensive nature of holding ETH could challenge its position as the default currency of Ethereum, potentially leading to friction in transactions and a shift towards alternative tokens.
• Centralization Risks: A few dominant staking tokens, like Lido, could amass excessive influence over Ethereum's protocol, posing risks to decentralization and governance.

Proposed Issuance Curve Adjustment

实际质押收益率递减：随着质押率接近 100%，质押的实际收益率可能会下降至可以忽略不计的水平。 ETH 作为“昂贵”货币：由于非质押者的通胀压力增加，高质押率可能会使持有 ETH 的成本高昂。默认货币状态：持有 ETH 的昂贵性质可能会挑战其作为以太坊默认货币的地位，可能导致交易摩擦和转向替代代币。中心化风险：一些占主导地位的质押代币，如 Lido，可能会积累过度影响力以太坊协议，给去中心化和治理带来风险。拟议的发行曲线调整

To mitigate these risks, Dietrichs and Schwarz proposed recalibrating Ethereum's issuance curve, moving towards "Stake Ratio Targeting." This approach aims to maintain a balanced staking ratio through a revised formula for calculating staking rewards.

为了减轻这些风险，Dietrichs 和 Schwarz 提议重新调整以太坊的发行曲线，转向“权益比率目标”。这种方法旨在通过修改计算质押奖励的公式来维持平衡的质押比率。

However, the community reaction has been overwhelmingly negative. Critics argue that changing the monetary policy would erode confidence, undermine Ethereum's "hard money" characteristics, and potentially attract regulatory scrutiny.

然而，社区的反应绝大多数是负面的。批评者认为，改变货币政策会削弱信心，破坏以太坊的“硬通货”特征，并可能引起监管审查。

Regulatory Considerations

监管考虑

Some community members have highlighted the timing of this proposal, coinciding with the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) investigation into the Ethereum Foundation. They argue that changing the issuance curve could imply that the Foundation exerts managerial control over Ethereum, which could strengthen the SEC's case that ETH is a security.

一些社区成员强调了这一提议的时机，恰逢美国证券交易委员会（SEC）对以太坊基金会的调查。他们认为，改变发行曲线可能意味着基金会对以太坊实施管理控制，这可能会强化 SEC 认为 ETH 是一种证券的论点。

Debate Continues

争论仍在继续

Despite the negative initial response, researcher Emmanuel Awoski has criticized those who dismiss the need for dialogue about the issuance curve change. He argues that such discussions are vital for the Ethereum ecosystem's long-term health.

尽管最初反应消极，但研究员伊曼纽尔·阿沃斯基（Emmanuel Awoski）批评了那些认为无需就发行曲线变化进行对话的人。他认为此类讨论对于以太坊生态系统的长期健康至关重要。

The debate over Ethereum's staking economics is likely to continue, with no clear consensus in sight. The outcome of this discussion will have a significant impact on the future of Ethereum, balancing the need for security and decentralization with the potential risks of a high staking ratio.

关于以太坊质押经济学的争论可能会继续下去，目前还没有明确的共识。这次讨论的结果将对以太坊的未来产生重大影响，平衡安全性和去中心化的需求与高质押率的潜在风险。