到 2024 年 9 月，以太坊 (ETH) 可能会达到 6,000 美元：原因如下

受欢迎的加密货币分析师 degentrading (@degentradingLSD) 做出了大胆预测，认为以太坊到 2024 年 9 月将达到 6,000 美元。

Crypto analyst Degentrading has predicted that ETH will reach $6,000 by September 2024. This bold prediction comes in response to Mechanism Capital founder Andrew Kang's analysis, which suggests that Ethereum will underperform despite the imminent launch of US spot Ethereum ETFs.

加密货币分析师 Degentrading 预测 ETH 到 2024 年 9 月将达到 6,000 美元。这一大胆的预测是对 Mechanism Capital 创始人 Andrew Kang 分析的回应，该分析表明，尽管美国现货以太坊 ETF 即将推出，但以太坊将表现不佳。

According to Degentrading, the change in CME open interest (OI) from pre-ETF days to the present indicates a substantial increase of approximately $5 billion. He suggests that this could be the upper bound of cash and carry trades prior to the ETF launch.

根据 Degentrading 的数据，CME 未平仓合约 (OI) 从 ETF 上市前到现在的变化表明，大幅增加了约 50 亿美元。他表示，这可能是 ETF 推出之前现金和套利交易的上限。

However, he notes that the challenges posed by the extinction of prime brokers like Genesis could limit the overall cash and carry trades to a minority, estimating a maximum of $1-2 billion. This would leave an estimated $7 billion in potential inflows, which is highly dependent on assumptions.

然而，他指出，Genesis 等主要经纪商的消亡带来的挑战可能会将现金和套利交易总量限制在少数，估计最多可达 1-20 亿美元。这将留下估计 70 亿美元的潜在流入，这在很大程度上取决于假设。

Degentrading also highlights the contrasting sentiments in traditional finance (TradFi) compared to Crypto Twitter (CT). While CT is largely pessimistic about Ethereum's performance, TradFi professionals show more enthusiasm for ETH and even SOL compared to BTC.

退化交易还凸显了传统金融 (TradFi) 与加密货币 Twitter (CT) 的截然不同的情绪。虽然 CT 对以太坊的表现大多持悲观态度，但与 BTC 相比，TradFi 专业人士对 ETH 甚至 SOL 表现出更大的热情。

He argues that this enthusiasm, combined with Ethereum's relative illiquidity, could lead to significant price movements with relatively smaller capital inflows. This could be a key factor in his prediction of ETH reaching $6,000 by September 2024.

他认为，这种热情加上以太坊的相对流动性不足，可能会导致价格大幅波动，而资本流入相对较小。这可能是他预测 ETH 到 2024 年 9 月将达到 6,000 美元的关键因素。