3月26日至3月28日之间的Ether（ETH）价格下跌了9.3％

这种更正导致了超过1.14亿美元的杠杆期货清算，并导致相对于常规现货市场的溢价下降

Ether (ETH) price tested the $1,860 level for the first time in two weeks as the correction between March 26 and March 28 led to over $114 million in liquidations of leveraged ETH futures and dropped the premium relative to the regular spot market to its lowest level in over a year.

Ether（ETH）价格在两周内首次测试了1,860美元的水平，因为3月26日至3月28日之间的纠正导致了超过1.14亿美元的杠杆ETH期货清算，并将相对于常规现货市场的溢价降至一年以上的最低水平。

Some traders have argued that the rock-bottom ETH futures premium is a bottom signal, but let’s dig deeper into the data to see if this perspective makes any sense.

一些交易者认为，岩石最低的期货溢价是一个最低的信号，但让我们更深入地研究数据，以查看这种观点是否有意义。

ETH futures premium hits 2-year low

Eth Futures Premium命中2年低点

Eth Futures Premium命中2年低点

Typically, monthly futures contracts trade above the regular spot price as sellers demand compensation for the longer settlement period. A 5% to 10% annualized premium indicates neutral markets, reflecting the cost of opportunity and the exchanges’ risk.

通常，随着卖方要求更长的和解期要求薪酬，每月期货合约交易高于正常现货价格。每年5％至10％的溢价表明中立市场，反映了机会成本和交流风险。

However, ETH futures dropped below this threshold on March 8, following a 24% price correction in the prior two weeks.

但是，在前两周的价格校正24％之后，ETH期货在3月8日的该门槛降至此阈值以下。

At the moment, the 2% ETH futures annualized premium suggests a lack of demand for leveraged longs (buys), but this measure is highly influenced by recent price movements. For example, on Oct. 10, 2024, the ETH futures premium dropped to 2.6% after a 14% price correction in two weeks, but the indicator rose to 7% as ETH regained most of its losses.

目前，2％的ETH期货年度溢价表明对杠杆式渴望的需求不足（购买），但是这项措施受到最近价格变动的很大影响。例如，在2024年10月10日，ETH Futures Premium在两周内进行了14％的价格校正后下降到2.6％，但随着ETH恢复了大部分损失，指标上升到7％。

Essentially, the futures premium rarely signals changes in the spot price trend.

从本质上讲，期货溢价很少表示现货价格趋势的变化。

ETH whales are afraid the price will fall further

Eth鲸鱼担心价格会进一步下降

Eth鲸鱼担心价格会进一步下降

To determine if whales have lost interest in Ether, it’s crucial to observe how the market is pricing put (sell) options compared to call (buy) options. When traders anticipate a downtrend, the 25% delta skew metric rises above 6%, indicating a higher demand for hedging strategies. In contrast, periods of bullishness usually push the skew below -6%.

为了确定鲸鱼对以太的兴趣是否失去了兴趣，至关重要的是要观察到市场定价（卖出）期权与呼叫（买入）选项相比是至关重要的。当交易者预计下降趋势时，25％的三角洲度量指标上升到6％以上，表明对对冲策略的需求更高。相比之下，看涨时期通常将偏差低于-6％。

Currently at 7%, the ETH options’ 25% delta skew suggests a lack of conviction among professional traders, which increases the likelihood of further bearish momentum.

ETH选项目前为7％，25％的Delta偏斜表明专业交易者缺乏信念，这增加了进一步看跌势头的可能性。

From a derivatives market perspective, there is little indication that the recent ETH price correction has bottomed out. Ultimately, investors aren’t confident that the $1,800 support will hold.

从衍生品市场的角度来看，几乎没有迹象表明最近的ETH价格校正已经触底了。最终，投资者不相信1,800美元的支持将持有。

Some analysts argue that the sharp decline in Ethereum network activity is the primary reason for the reduced appeal of ETH, while others suggest that the shift toward layer-2 scalability has significantly decreased the potential of base chain fees. Given the need to compensate network validators, the lack of capital inflow requires more ETH issuance, which negatively affects net returns from native staking.

一些分析人士认为，以太坊网络活动的急剧下降是ETH吸引力下降的主要原因，而其他人则认为向2层可伸缩性的转变显着降低了基础链费用的潜力。鉴于需要补偿网络验证者，缺乏资本流入需要更多的ETH发行，这会对本地积分产生负面影响。

The Ethereum network faces steep competition

以太坊网络面临陡峭的竞争

Attempting to pinpoint the reasons behind sellers’ motivations is pointless, especially considering Ethereum’s competition, which has expanded from blockchains like BNB Chain and Solana to networks tailored for specific challenges. Examples include Hyperliquid, focused on synthetic assets and perpetual trading, and Berachain, which is apparently better suited for staked assets in cross-liquidity pools.

试图指出卖家动机背后的原因是毫无意义的，尤其是考虑到以太坊的竞争，该竞争已从BNB链和Solana等区块链扩展到针对特定挑战的量身定制的网络。例子包括超流动性，专注于合成资产和永久交易，以及Berachain，显然更适合跨流动性池中的固定资产。

The success of certain decentralized applications (DApps) could serve as the final blow to Ether. For instance, Ethena, the synthetic dollar protocol on Ethereum, is transitioning to its own layer-1 blockchain. The project, currently holding $5.3 billion in total value locked (TVL), raised $100 million in December 2024 to support this shift.

某些分散应用程序（DAPP）的成功可以作为对以太的最终打击。例如，以太坊上的合成美元协议Ethena正在过渡到其自己的第1层区块链。该项目目前持有53亿美元的总价值锁定（TVL），于2024年12月筹集了1亿美元，以支持这一转变。

However, it may be too early to say that ETH price will continue to fall, as a major protocol update is only a few weeks away. Investors should pay attention to the practical benefits of Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade in terms of base layer fees and overall usability for the average user. Until then, the chances of ETH outperforming the broader altcoin market are slim.

但是，现在说ETH价格将继续下跌还为时过早，因为主要协议更新仅几周了。投资者应关注以太坊的Pectra升级的实际收益，从基本层费用和普通用户的总体可用性方面。在此之前，ETH的机会胜过更广泛的Altcoin市场。