彭博智能揭示2025年加密ETF批准赔率

彭博情报公司（Bloomberg Intelligence）于2025年发布了更新的赔率（ETP）批准。

output: Among the varied cryptocurrency assets, Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), Litecoin (CRYPTO: LTC), and crypto index funds appear to have the highest chances of SEC approval in 2025, according to a recent analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence.

输出：根据Bloomberg Intelligence最近的一项分析，在不同的加密货币资产中，Solana（Crypto：Sol），Litecoin（Crypto：LTC）和加密指数基金似乎在2025年获得SEC批准的机会最高。

What Happened: At the beginning of the year, BI’s analysts assigned a 70% probability for approval of at least one new class of crypto ETP, taking into account the SEC’s response to pending applications.

发生了什么：在年初，BI的分析师考虑了SEC对待处理申请的响应，分析了至少一类新的加密ETP的批准概率70％。

However, with several new filings from firms like Grayscale (NYSE:STPY), Bitwise, Franklin, and others, and no new approvals yet, the odds have shifted, and the analysis now considers an 85% chance of at least one new crypto ETP approval by year-end.

但是，随着诸如Grayscale（NYSE：STPY），Bitwise，Franklin等公司的几份新文件，尚无新的批准，几率发生了变化，现在的分析现在考虑了至少在年底获得一个新的Crypto ETP批准的85％的机会。

The crypto assets assessed by BI are listed with their respective odds of approval by 2025:

由BI评估的加密资产在2025年之前列出了其各自批准的几率：

Crypto Asset | Crypto ETF/ETP Approval Odds in 2025

加密资产| 2025年的加密ETF/ETP批准赔率

:---|:---:

：--- |：---：： - ：

Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) | 90%

Solana（加密：SOL）| 90％

Litecoin (CRYPTO: LTC) | 90%

Litecoin（加密：LTC）| 90％

Crypto Index Funds | 90%

加密指数资金| 90％

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) | 85%

XRP（加密：XRP）| 85％

Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) | 80%

Dogecoin（加密：Doge）| 80％

HBAR (CRYPTO: HBAR) | 80%

HBAR（加密：HBAR）| 80％

Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA),Polkdot (CRYPTO: DOT), Avalanche (CRYPTO: AVAX) | 75%

Cardano（加密：ADA），Polkdot（加密：DOT），Avalanche（加密：Avax）| 75％

Solana, Litecoin, and index funds are currently viewed as the most likely candidates. They already have strong backing from key institutions. For instance, Grayscale is pursuing applications for Solana, Litecoin, and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trust conversions, while Bitwise is applying for Litecoin and crypto index funds, and Franklin is handling an index fund.

Solana，Litecoin和Index基金目前被视为最有可能的候选人。他们已经得到了主要机构的强烈支持。例如，Grayscale正在为Solana，Litecoin和Bitcoin（Crypto：BTC）信任转换申请申请，而Bitwise则申请Litecoin和Crypto Index Funds，Franklin正在处理指数基金。

On the other hand, XRP faces an 85% chance of approval, but it’s still pending a crucial update from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This update, on the registration of digital asset markets, is expected by April 21.

另一方面，XRP面临85％的批准机会，但仍在进行商品期货交易委员会的关键更新。预计将在4月21日之前进行有关数字资产市场注册的更新。

Dogecoin and HBAR follow with an 80% approval probability, while Cardano, Polkadot, and Avalanche each have a 75% chance. These projects are rapidly expanding their ecosystems and boast significant market caps. However, they might encounter slightly more hesitation from the SEC in the final stages of approval.

Dogecoin和Hbar的批准概率为80％，而Cardano，Polkadot和Avalanche的机会分别为75％。这些项目正在迅速扩大其生态系统并拥有明显的市值。但是，在批准的最后阶段，他们可能会遇到更多的犹豫。

It’s worth noting that all the listed assets are considered “likely commodities” by the SEC and are paired with CFTC-regulated futures—a critical criteria for spot ETF viability.

值得注意的是，所有列出的资产都被SEC视为“可能的商品”，并与CFTC调节的期货配对，这是现货ETF生存能力的关键标准。

Bloomberg’s assessment is based on subjective analysis of regulatory momentum, market maturity, and institutional involvement. With several deadlines stretching into late 2025 and key updates expected from the CFTC, the next few months will be pivotal in shaping the narrative of crypto investment access in the U.S.

彭博的评估基于对监管动量，市场成熟度和机构参与的主观分析。随着几个截止日期一直延伸到2025年末，并且CFTC预计将进行关键更新，接下来的几个月将是塑造美国加密货币投资访问叙事的关键