Bloomberg Intelligence Reveals 2025 Crypto ETF Approval Odds

Bloomberg Intelligence has released updated odds for spot crypto exchange-traded product (ETP) approvals in 2025.

output: Among the varied cryptocurrency assets, Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), Litecoin (CRYPTO: LTC), and crypto index funds appear to have the highest chances of SEC approval in 2025, according to a recent analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence.

What Happened: At the beginning of the year, BI’s analysts assigned a 70% probability for approval of at least one new class of crypto ETP, taking into account the SEC’s response to pending applications.

However, with several new filings from firms like Grayscale (NYSE:STPY), Bitwise, Franklin, and others, and no new approvals yet, the odds have shifted, and the analysis now considers an 85% chance of at least one new crypto ETP approval by year-end.

The crypto assets assessed by BI are listed with their respective odds of approval by 2025:

Crypto Asset | Crypto ETF/ETP Approval Odds in 2025

:---|:---:

Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) | 90%

Litecoin (CRYPTO: LTC) | 90%

Crypto Index Funds | 90%

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) | 85%

Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) | 80%

HBAR (CRYPTO: HBAR) | 80%

Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA),Polkdot (CRYPTO: DOT), Avalanche (CRYPTO: AVAX) | 75%

Solana, Litecoin, and index funds are currently viewed as the most likely candidates. They already have strong backing from key institutions. For instance, Grayscale is pursuing applications for Solana, Litecoin, and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trust conversions, while Bitwise is applying for Litecoin and crypto index funds, and Franklin is handling an index fund.

On the other hand, XRP faces an 85% chance of approval, but it’s still pending a crucial update from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This update, on the registration of digital asset markets, is expected by April 21.

Dogecoin and HBAR follow with an 80% approval probability, while Cardano, Polkadot, and Avalanche each have a 75% chance. These projects are rapidly expanding their ecosystems and boast significant market caps. However, they might encounter slightly more hesitation from the SEC in the final stages of approval.

It’s worth noting that all the listed assets are considered “likely commodities” by the SEC and are paired with CFTC-regulated futures—a critical criteria for spot ETF viability.

Bloomberg’s assessment is based on subjective analysis of regulatory momentum, market maturity, and institutional involvement. With several deadlines stretching into late 2025 and key updates expected from the CFTC, the next few months will be pivotal in shaping the narrative of crypto investment access in the U.S.