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数字资产的举动随后进行了三个紧密的巩固,与巨大的美元弱点和创纪录的集会相吻合。
Bitcoin price extended gains during early Asia trading on Monday, surging above $87,000 as broader markets reopened following a flat session throughout the Easter holiday closure.
周一,在亚洲早期交易中,比特币的价格延长了,随着整个复活节假期结束的持平会议,更广泛的市场飙升了87,000美元。
The digital asset’s move came after three sessions of tight consolidation, coinciding with broad dollar weakness and a record-setting rally in gold.
数字资产的举动是在三个紧密整合的会议之后进行的,与巨大的美元弱点和创纪录的集会相吻合。
BTC/USD rose from around $84,450 to an intraday high of nearly $87,650 within three hours, breaking above a multi-day falling wedge pattern. Bitcoin was trading at nearly $87,640 at the time of publication, according to TradingView data.
BTC/USD在三个小时内从84,450美元上升至近87,650美元的盘中高点,超过了多日下降楔形图案。根据TradingView数据,在出版时,比特币的交易价格为87,640美元。
The breakout unfolded during low-liquidity conditions in early Asia hours, with the dollar index (DXY) falling to its lowest level since 2021.
突破在亚洲早期的低流动性条件下展开,美元指数(DXY)降至2021年以来的最低水平。
This coincided with growing speculation around the potential removal of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
这与越来越多的猜测有关撤职杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)的潜在猜测。
As ZeroHedge reported, comments made Friday by National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, who stated that “the president and his team will continue to study” options regarding Powell’s position, were cited by traders as a catalyst for the dollar’s decline.
正如Zerohedge报道的那样,国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)周五发表了评论,他说“总统及其团队将继续研究鲍威尔的立场”,并被交易员列为鲍威尔的立场,以此作为美元下降的催化剂。
Dollar weakness triggers haven flows
美元弱点触发天堂流
The dollar’s rapid decline, unfolding while several global markets remained closed, drove demand toward both traditional and digital stores of value.
美元的迅速下降,在几个全球市场保持关闭的同时的迅速下降,将需求推向了价值的传统和数字存储。
Gold prices rose to an all-time high of $3,391.62 during the same session, registering a 2.4% gain. Per Reuters, the move marked the metal’s most substantial single-day rally in months.
在同一会议期间,黄金价格上涨至3,391.62美元,增长2.4%。每位路透社,此举标志着金属在几个月内最重要的单日集会。
Digital gold in the form of Bitcoin rose in tandem, diverging from recent behavior, when both assets had moved inversely to the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. Notably, bond prices fell Monday; the US10 and CN10 plots on the chart represent bond prices, not yields, implying a concurrent rise in long-dated yields.
比特币形式的数字黄金串联上升,与最近的行为不同,当时两种资产都逐渐转移到美国的10年美国财政部票据。值得注意的是,债券价格周一下跌;图表上的US10和CN10图代表债券价格,而不是收益率,这意味着长期产量的同时增加。
The Kobeissi Letter reported,
Kobeissi信件报道说,
“The narrative in both Gold and Bitcoin is aligning for the first time in years:
“黄金和比特币中的叙述是多年来首次保持一致的:
Gold and Bitcoin are telling us that a weaker US Dollar and more uncertainty are on the way.”
黄金和比特币告诉我们,较弱的美元和更多的不确定性正在途中。”
The combination of a falling dollar, climbing yields, and soaring gold presents a scenario where Bitcoin is being repriced in light of perceived instability in traditional financial instruments.
跌落的美元,攀爬产量和高耸的黄金的结合呈现出一种场景,鉴于传统金融工具中认为不稳定的不稳定,比特币正在重新定位。
As ZeroHedge framed it, the alignment of gold and Bitcoin strength during a period of fiat stress may reflect “a regime shift” where digital assets are increasingly treated as monetary hedges.
当零黑眼所构架时,在菲亚特压力时期,黄金和比特币强度的对准可能反映了“政权转移”,在这种情况下,数字资产越来越多地将其视为货币对冲。
Broader market divergence
更广泛的市场差异
Equity markets opened weaker despite haven strength. The S&P 500 futures fell 1.54% in Monday’s early session, erasing late-week gains. Oil markets also declined, with WTI crude down more than 3%, trading close to the session low at around $62.83.
尽管避风港实力,股票市场的开放较弱。标准普尔500年期货在周一的早期会议上下跌了1.54%,从而消除了深夜的收益。石油市场也下降了,WTI原油下跌了3%以上,交易接近较低的会议低约62.83美元。
This divergence between traditional risk assets and alternative stores of value mirrors conditions observed during other periods of monetary uncertainty.
传统风险资产与价值的替代存储之间的这种差异反映了其他货币不确定性期间观察到的条件。
Gold and Bitcoin rising together while bond prices fall and equity indices slip suggests positioning away from rate-sensitive assets and into instruments perceived as politically insulated.
黄金和比特币一起上升,而债券价格下跌,股票指数滑倒表明将其脱离利率敏感的资产,并进入被认为是政治上绝缘的工具。
Per ZeroHedge, the dollar’s descent may not stabilize quickly. If central banks like the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank respond with easing measures to counter their own currency strength, further dollar pressure could ensue.
根据零黑眼,美元的下降可能不会迅速稳定。如果像日本银行和欧洲中央银行这样的中央银行采取缓解措施以应对自己的货币实力做出反应,那么可能会进一步的美元压力。
In such an environment, Bitcoin may continue to decouple from rate-based instruments and track more closely with physical commodities like gold.
在这样的环境中,比特币可能会继续与基于费率的工具解散,并与黄金等物理商品更紧密地跟踪。
Structural implications
结构含义
The correlation breakdown between Bitcoin and traditional macro proxies poses questions around portfolio allocation and asset classification.
比特币与传统宏代理之间的相关性分解提出了有关投资组合分配和资产分类的问题。
With bond prices and equities sliding while gold and Bitcoin rally, traders may begin to recalibrate how digital assets are categorized in cross-asset frameworks.
随着债券价格和股票的滑动,黄金和比特币集会,交易者可能会开始重新校准数字资产如何在交叉资料框架中分类。
This move follows weeks of gradual decorrelation between Bitcoin and the DXY, as observed through 30-day rolling correlation metrics.
这一举动是在比特币和DXY之间逐渐去相关的数周之后,如30天的滚动相关指标所观察到的那样。
Should this continue, Bitcoin will shed its perception as a tech-aligned risk asset and become more of a monetary hedge with characteristics similar to commodities.
如果继续这样做,比特币将把其视为一项技术一致的风险资产,并成为具有类似商品特征的货币对冲。
The political dimension also plays a role. While previous episodes of Trump-Fed tensions triggered temporary volatility, the current episode features open discussion of potential Federal Reserve leadership changes. This could influence market pricing of future rate decisions and broader monetary policy expectations, both of which have implications for crypto markets.
政治维度也起着作用。虽然以前的特朗普喂养紧张局势引发了暂时的波动,但当前情节以对潜在的美联储领导力变化进行了公开讨论。这可能会影响未来利率决策和更广泛的货币政策期望的市场定价,这两者都对加密市场有影响。
As trading resumes fully across regions, Bitcoin’s behavior near the $88,400 resistance band will offer further clarity. Sustained strength above this level could attract systematic flows and spur algorithmic buying. Conversely, failure to hold above the breakout zone may expose the asset to return toward mid-range levels.
随着跨地区交易的全面恢复,比特币的行为接近$ 88,400的阻力频段将提供进一步的清晰度。持续的强度高于此水平可以吸引系统的流动和刺激算法购买。相反,如果不超过突破区域,则可能会使资产返回到中范围的水平。
For now, the asset’s performance in a mixed macro environment, displaying decoupling from equities and fixed income, positions it centrally within post-holiday trading narratives.
目前,资产在混合的宏观环境中的绩效,与股票和固定收益的分离,将其集中在节后交易叙事中的位置。
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