比特币供应动态表明市场情绪参差不齐

自 3 月 5 日以来，获利持有的 BTC 供应量百分比已暴跌 15%，达到两个月低点 84.4%。该指标通常表明市场正在调整，短期持有者会亏本出售。然而，从历史上看，由于市场上的弱手被移除，低供应利润比导致了更加看涨的情况。

Bitcoin Price Dynamics: Supply in Profit and Market Sentiment

比特币价格动态：利润供应和市场情绪

Introduction

介绍

The cryptocurrency market has witnessed significant volatility in recent months, with Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing notable price fluctuations. To gain insights into the market dynamics, analysts closely monitor various on-chain metrics that provide valuable information about investor behavior and potential price trends. Two such metrics that have garnered attention lately are the percentage of BTC supply in profit and the Coin's Age Consumed.

近几个月来，加密货币市场出现了大幅波动，比特币（BTC）的价格波动也显着。为了深入了解市场动态，分析师密切监控各种链上指标，这些指标提供有关投资者行为和潜在价格趋势的宝贵信息。最近引起关注的两个此类指标是比特币供应占利润的百分比和代币的消耗时间。

Decline in Supply in Profit

利润供应下降

According to data from Santiment, an on-chain data provider, the percentage of BTC supply in profit has witnessed a significant decline in recent weeks. As of April 20th, 2023, this metric has dropped to 84.4%, marking a two-month low. This decline indicates that an increasing portion of BTC holders are holding their coins at a loss, often a consequence of price corrections and panic selling by short-term holders who purchased at higher prices.

链上数据提供商Santiment的数据显示，近几周BTC供应量占利润的比例大幅下降。截至 2023 年 4 月 20 日，该指标已降至 84.4%，创下两个月低点。这种下降表明，越来越多的比特币持有者亏损持有其代币，这通常是价格调整和以更高价格购买的短期持有者恐慌性抛售的结果。

Historical Perspective and Interpretation

历史视角与解释

Historically, a declining supply-in-profit ratio has often signaled more bullish conditions. This is because a low supply-in-profit ratio can be viewed as a contrarian indicator. When this metric falls, it suggests that weak and indecisive investors ("paper hands") have exited the market, leaving room for new demand and potential price appreciation.

从历史上看，供给利润率下降往往预示着更乐观的情况。这是因为低供给利润率可以被视为逆势指标。当这一指标下降时，表明软弱且优柔寡断的投资者（“纸牌手”）已经退出市场，为新的需求和潜在的价格上涨留下了空间。

Assessing the Price Bottom

评估价格底部

To assess whether BTC's price has reached a bottom and whether a rally is imminent, analysts often consider the Coin's Age Consumed metric. This metric tracks the movement of long-held, idle BTC coins. Historically, it has served as a reliable indicator of price tops and bottoms.

为了评估 BTC 的价格是否已触底以及反弹是否即将到来，分析师通常会考虑代币的“消耗时间”指标。该指标跟踪长期持有的闲置比特币的变动。从历史上看，它一直是价格顶部和底部的可靠指标。

Since April 3rd, 2023, BTC's Coin's Age Consumed has remained relatively flat, suggesting that there has not been any significant movement of dormant coins. This could indicate that a local price bottom has not yet been established.

自2023年4月3日以来，BTC的币龄消耗保持相对平稳，这表明休眠币没有发生任何重大变动。这可能表明当地价格底部尚未确立。

Network Realized Profit/Loss and Price Bottom

网络已实现盈亏及价格底部

Another crucial metric to consider is BTC's Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL). This metric measures the difference between the price at which coins were last moved on the blockchain and their current market price. Historically, NPL declines have signaled potential price bottoms. This is because sharp decreases in NPL indicate short-term capitulation by weak hands and the influx of new money into the market.

另一个需要考虑的关键指标是 BTC 的网络已实现损益（NPL）。该指标衡量代币最后在区块链上移动的价格与其当前市场价格之间的差异。从历史上看，不良贷款下降预示着潜在的价格底部。这是因为不良贷款的大幅下降表明弱势群体的短期投降和新资金涌入市场。

However, current NPL data does not suggest that a price bottom has been reached yet.

然而，目前的不良贷款数据并不表明价格已经触底。

Conclusion

结论

Based on the analysis of the percentage of BTC supply in profit, Coin's Age Consumed, and Network Realized Profit/Loss, it is premature to conclude that BTC's price has reached a bottom. While the declining supply-in-profit ratio could be a bullish signal, the lack of significant movement in Coin's Age Consumed and the absence of a clear NPL decline suggest that the market is still in flux. Further monitoring of these on-chain metrics and other market indicators will be crucial for investors seeking to make informed decisions.

根据BTC供应量占利润的比例、币龄、网络已实现盈亏的分析，现在断定BTC价格已经触底还为时过早。虽然供应与利润比率的下降可能是一个看涨信号，但币龄没有显着变化以及不良贷款没有明显下降表明市场仍在不断变化。进一步监控这些链上指标和其他市场指标对于寻求做出明智决策的投资者至关重要。