比特币在逆风中挣扎，威胁矿工的未来

摩根大通分析师警告称，比特币在短期内面临多项挑战。尽管最近有所上涨，但分析师认为，当前的算力和功耗表明生产成本约为 45,000 美元，低于当前价格。然而，他们也发现了一些不利因素，例如期货头寸超买、融资环境低迷以及香港现货比特币 ETF 获批后需求有限。分析师强调，减半导致矿商面临持续的挑战，这减少了他们的收入，并增加了无利可图的矿商退出网络的压力。

Bitcoin Faces Persistent Headwinds, Challenging Miners in the Near Term

比特币面临持续的阻力，短期内给矿工带来挑战

London, May 17, 2024 - Amidst a challenging market environment, JPMorgan analysts have identified several headwinds that pose significant obstacles for Bitcoin miners in the foreseeable future.

伦敦，2024 年 5 月 17 日 - 在充满挑战的市场环境中，摩根大通分析师发现了一些不利因素，这些因素在可预见的未来对比特币矿商构成了重大障碍。

Exit of Unprofitable Miners

无法盈利的矿工退出

Following the halving event in April, an anticipated exodus of unprofitable miners from the Bitcoin network has commenced. The reduction in mining activity has led to a decline in the network's hash rate, the combined computational power required to mine bitcoins.

继四月份的减半事件之后，预计无利可图的矿工将开始从比特币网络中撤离。采矿活动的减少导致网络哈希率（开采比特币所需的综合计算能力）下降。

Price Pressures

价格压力

Despite the recent rally, Bitcoin prices remain below the estimated production cost of $45,000, putting pressure on miners' profitability. JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted, "We do not see upside for Bitcoin prices in the current juncture and if anything we see headwinds over the near term."

尽管近期有所上涨，但比特币价格仍低于预计的 45,000 美元生产成本，给矿商的盈利能力带来压力。摩根大通的 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 指出，“目前我们认为比特币价格没有上涨空间，如果有的话，我们认为短期内会出现阻力。”

Overbought Futures Market

超买期货市场

The firm's analysis of CME Bitcoin futures positions suggests an overbought market, indicating a potential correction in prices. This aligns with Bitcoin prices exceeding JPMorgan's volatility-adjusted comparison to gold of $45,000.

该公司对芝商所比特币期货头寸的分析表明市场超买，表明价格可能出现调整。这与摩根大通经波动性调整后的黄金价格相比，比特币价格超过 45,000 美元。

Subdued Venture Capital Funding

风险投资资金疲软

Venture capital funding for cryptocurrency companies has remained subdued despite the recent resurgence in crypto prices, highlighting a lack of institutional appetite for the sector.

尽管最近加密货币价格回升，但加密货币公司的风险投资资金仍然低迷，凸显了机构对该行业缺乏兴趣。

Limited ETF Inflow and Lackluster Demand

ETF 流入有限且需求低迷

Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed limited inflows this month, following significant outflows in April. Additionally, Hong Kong's recent approval of spot Bitcoin and ether ETFs has not generated the anticipated boost in demand.

继 4 月份大幅流出之后，本月比特币 ETF 的资金流入有限。此外，香港最近批准现货比特币和以太币 ETF 并没有产生预期的需求增长。

Revenue Challenges for Miners

矿工面临的收入挑战

The halving event has significantly reduced Bitcoin miners' primary revenue source, while transaction fees, a secondary source, have also diminished. As a result, unprofitable miners are being pushed out of the network.

减半事件大大减少了比特币矿工的主要收入来源，而次要来源交易费用也有所减少。结果，无利可图的矿工被挤出网络。

"This highlights the ongoing challenge faced by Bitcoin miners to maintain a sustainable source of revenue, particularly in the post halving environment," said Panigirtzoglou.

Panigirtzoglou 表示：“这凸显了比特币矿商在维持可持续收入来源方面面临的持续挑战，特别是在减半后的环境中。”

Feedback Loop and Market Dynamics

反馈循环和市场动态

Bitcoin prices and mining activity are intricately linked. Declining prices can further exacerbate the exit of unprofitable miners, leading to a lower hash rate and potentially lower production costs. This feedback loop complicates the near-term outlook for Bitcoin miners.

比特币价格和挖矿活动有着错综复杂的联系。价格下跌可能会进一步加剧无利可图的矿商退出，导致算力下降并可能降低生产成本。这种反馈循环使比特币矿工的近期前景变得复杂。

Conclusion

结论

Bitcoin miners face a challenging environment characterized by limited profitability, price headwinds, and a cautious market sentiment. While the recent exit of unprofitable miners has provided some relief, the sustainability of mining operations remains a concern. JPMorgan's analysis suggests that Bitcoin prices may face continued pressure in the near term, posing further obstacles for miners.

比特币矿商面临着充满挑战的环境，其特点是盈利能力有限、价格逆风和谨慎的市场情绪。虽然最近无利可图的矿商的退出缓解了一些压力，但采矿业务的可持续性仍然令人担忧。摩根大通的分析表明，比特币价格短期内可能面临持续压力，给矿商带来进一步的障碍。