VanEck：到 2050 年，比特币价格可能飙升至 290 万美元

投资管理巨头 VanEck 的分析师认为，到 2050 年，比特币的价格 (BTC) 可能会飙升至 290 万美元。

Analysts at investment management giant VanEck believe Bitcoin (BTC) could be priced at $2.9 million by 2050.

投资管理巨头 VanEck 的分析师认为，到 2050 年，比特币 (BTC) 的价格可能会达到 290 万美元。

For this to happen, BTC will need to become a key part of the international monetary system, according to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, and Patrick Bush, a senior investment analyst at the firm.

VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 和该公司高级投资分析师 Patrick Bush 表示，要实现这一目标，比特币需要成为国际货币体系的关键组成部分。

“We expect BTC to be widely used in international trade, becoming a significant medium of exchange and a valuable store of wealth. This leads to a Gresham’s Law-like feedback loop: as BTC becomes more useful and valuable, central banks and long-term investors will want to hold more BTC, reducing the amount available in the floating supply.”

“我们预计比特币将在国际贸易中得到广泛应用，成为重要的交换媒介和宝贵的财富储存手段。这导致了类似格雷欣法则的反馈循环：随着比特币变得更加有用和有价值，央行和长期投资者将希望持有更多比特币，从而减少浮动供应量。”

Sigel and Bush say it’s “conceivable” that Bitcoin could be used to settle 10% of the globe’s international trade and 5% of the world’s domestic trade by 2050.

Sigel 和 Bush 表示，到 2050 年，“可以想象”比特币将用于结算全球 10% 的国际贸易和 5% 的国内贸易。

“This scenario would result in central banks holding 2.5% of their assets in BTC. Using assumptions about global growth, investor BTC demand, and Bitcoin’s turnover, we apply a velocity of money equation to suggest a potential price of $2.9 million per Bitcoin, translating to a total market cap of $61 trillion.”

“这种情况将导致央行持有 2.5% 的资产为 BTC。通过对全球增长、投资者 BTC 需求和比特币营业额的假设，我们应用货币流通速度方程得出每个比特币的潜在价格为 290 万美元，相当于总市值为 61 万亿美元。”

The velocity of money measures the rate money is used to buy goods and services in an economy.

货币流通速度衡量经济体中货币用于购买商品和服务的速率。

BTC is trading at $65,309 at time of writing.

截至撰写本文时，BTC 交易价格为 65,309 美元。