比特币将飙升，专家预测在供应短缺和全球现金激增的情况下将达到六位数的峰值

宏观专家 Lyn Alden 预测，比特币 (BTC) 的价值可能会飙升，可能达到 10 万美元或更高。奥尔登表示，当前的供应冲击，长期持有者不愿出售，再加上全球流动性增加，为比特币在未来几个月上涨至六位数的价格创造了有利的环境。

Bitcoin Poised for Six-Figure Surge as Supply Crunch and Global Liquidity Surge Converge

随着供应紧缩和全球流动性激增，比特币有望实现六位数的飙升

Cryptocurrency expert Lyn Alden has issued a compelling case for Bitcoin (BTC) to soar to unprecedented heights, potentially breaching the coveted $100,000 mark or beyond. In a comprehensive interview with Blockworks Macro, Alden meticulously analyzed key market dynamics that point to a highly favorable trajectory for the world's leading digital asset.

加密货币专家 Lyn Alden 提出了一个令人信服的理由，认为比特币 (BTC) 将飙升至前所未有的高度，有可能突破令人垂涎的 10 万美元大关或更高。在接受 Blockworks Macro 的全面采访时，奥尔登仔细分析了关键的市场动态，这些动态表明世界领先的数字资产的发展轨迹非常有利。

Alden's primary argument hinges on a pronounced supply squeeze in the Bitcoin market. Long-term holders, the backbone of Bitcoin's scarcity, are exhibiting a remarkable unwillingness to part with their holdings at current prices. This unwavering conviction has severely constrained the supply of available BTC, creating a significant imbalance in the face of surging demand.

奥尔登的主要论点取决于比特币市场明显的供应紧张。长期持有者是比特币稀缺性的支柱，他们表现出明显不愿意以当前价格出售其持有的资产。这种坚定不移的信念严重限制了可用比特币的供应，在需求激增的情况下造成了严重的失衡。

Compounding this supply deficit is the relentless rise in global liquidity, which has been fueled by expansionary monetary policies implemented by central banks worldwide. This tidal wave of liquidity has inflated asset prices across the board, and Bitcoin, as a liquid and highly sought-after asset, stands to benefit immensely from this tailwind.

全球流动性不断增加，加剧了供应赤字，而全球央行实施的扩张性货币政策更是推动了流动性的不断增加。这股流动性浪潮全面推高了资产价格，而比特币作为一种流动性强且备受追捧的资产，将从这一顺风车中受益匪浅。

"For Bitcoin, most indicators that I track point to being fairly mid-cycle in terms of the bull run," explained Alden. "I still think the next 18 months look favorable for the asset. Again, it tracks global liquidity pretty well."

奥尔登解释说：“对于比特币来说，我跟踪的大多数指标都表明牛市处于相当中期的阶段。” “我仍然认为未来 18 个月对该资产有利。同样，它很好地跟踪了全球流动性。”

Alden further emphasized the importance of on-chain indicators that provide insights into the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders. Historically, when Bitcoin prices experience sharp increases over short periods, a portion of these long-held coins tend to be sold to meet the new demand. However, in this current market cycle, the volume of such selling has been notably lower than in previous bull runs.

奥尔登进一步强调了链上指标的重要性，这些指标可以洞察长期比特币持有者的行为。从历史上看，当比特币价格在短期内急剧上涨时，这些长期持有的比特币的一部分往往会被出售以满足新的需求。然而，在当前的市场周期中，此类抛售量明显低于之前的牛市。

"We've seen some of that but so far we've seen less of that in this cycle than in prior cycles," said Alden. "My expectation is there's room to run both from the liquidity side being fairly constructive. That should help demand. And I still think there has to be a higher price to unlock some of these older coins to meet that demand."

奥尔登说：“我们已经看到了其中的一些情况，但到目前为止，我们在这个周期中看到的这种情况比之前的周期要少。” “我的预期是，从流动性方面来看，两者都有相当建设性的运行空间。这应该有助于需求。而且我仍然认为，必须有更高的价格来解锁一些旧代币才能满足这一需求。”

Based on these compelling observations, Alden firmly believes that Bitcoin has ample room to appreciate over the next 18 months, with a strong likelihood of breaching the six-figure mark. The unique confluence of constrained supply and rising global liquidity has created a potent recipe for a significant price rally, making Bitcoin a highly enticing investment opportunity for those seeking exceptional returns.

基于这些令人信服的观察，奥尔登坚信比特币在未来 18 个月内有足够的升值空间，很有可能突破六位数大关。供应受限和全球流动性上升的独特结合为价格大幅上涨创造了有力的秘诀，使比特币对于那些寻求卓越回报的人来说成为极具吸引力的投资机会。