比特币减半后的演变：弹性、动态变化和不断增长的采用

2024 年 4 月，比特币减半后的动态凸显了区块链的弹性。虽然价格下跌 2% 至 66,472 美元，但同比上涨 130%。由于网络活动增加，交易费用飙升 126%，达到 95% 的高点。矿工的每日收入小幅下降至 6190 万美元，但仍保持在第 99% 的水平。尽管地址利润下降了 4%，但 94% 的地址仍然盈利。未实现盈亏比表明市场情绪健康。序数铭文在减半后显着减少，这可能是由于符文（一种新的可替代代币协议）的出现。

April's Post-Halving Bitcoin Snapshot: Evolving Dynamics and Resilience

四月比特币减半后快照：不断变化的动态和弹性

On April 19, the Bitcoin network underwent its third halving, an event that occurs every 210,000 blocks (approximately every four years) and reduces the block reward for miners by half. This halving has sparked considerable interest and speculation within the Bitcoin community, and has had a significant impact on the network's dynamics.

4 月 19 日，比特币网络经历了第三次减半，每 210,000 个区块（大约每四年）发生一次，矿工的区块奖励减少了一半。这次减半引发了比特币社区的极大兴趣和猜测，并对网络的动态产生了重大影响。

Bitcoin's Price Action

比特币的价格走势

In the immediate aftermath of the halving, Bitcoin's price experienced a slight dip of approximately 2%, settling at $66,472. However, this pullback is considered a minor fluctuation within the context of the broader market trend. Notably, Bitcoin has experienced an impressive 130% increase in value over the past year, highlighting its enduring appeal as a store of value.

减半后，比特币的价格小幅下跌约 2%，收于 66,472 美元。然而，在大盘趋势的背景下，这种回调被认为是小幅波动。值得注意的是，比特币在过去一年中的价值增长了 130%，令人印象深刻，凸显了其作为价值储存手段的持久吸引力。

Regional market behaviors have also exhibited distinct patterns post-halving. Asian trading hours witnessed a 7% month-over-month price decline, suggesting caution among investors in that region. In contrast, U.S. trading hours saw a 4% increase, indicating stronger confidence or possible accumulation phases during these hours. European trading, on the other hand, showed modest growth with a 1% increase, reflecting steady but cautious participation.

减半后区域市场行为也表现出不同的模式。亚洲交易时段价格环比下跌 7%，表明该地区投资者持谨慎态度。相比之下，美国交易时段上涨了 4%，表明这些时段信心增强或可能出现吸筹阶段。另一方面，欧洲交易呈现温和增长，增幅为 1%，反映出稳定但谨慎的参与。

Funding Rates

资金费率

The annualized cost to roll Bitcoin Futures has decreased by 31% to 15%, indicating a significant reduction in market leverage and bullish sentiment post-halving. This suggests that investors are adopting a more cautious approach, wary of excessive risk-taking.

比特币期货展期的年化成本下降了 31% 至 15%，表明减半后市场杠杆率和看涨情绪显着下降。这表明投资者正在采取更加谨慎的态度，警惕过度冒险。

Bitcoin's Network Activity, Adoption, and Fees

比特币的网络活动、采用和费用

The number of daily transactions on the Bitcoin network has surged by 27% this month, reflecting a robust rebound in network usage. This heightened activity places post-halving transaction volume in the 97th percentile of all-time activity, demonstrating the network's resilience and growing adoption.

本月比特币网络的日交易量激增 27%，反映出网络使用量的强劲反弹。这种活动的增加使减半后的交易量达到了历史活动的 97%，这证明了网络的弹性和不断增长的采用率。

Ordinal inscriptions, however, have seen a sharp 60% decrease in daily inscriptions since the halving, landing them in the 30th percentile historically. This reduction may indicate a shift in priorities or valuation of Ordinals, particularly after the recent launch of Runes, a new fungible token protocol on the Bitcoin blockchain.

然而，自减半以来，序数铭文的每日铭文数量急剧减少了 60%，历史上处于第 30 个百分位数。这种减少可能表明序数的优先级或估值发生了变化，特别是在最近推出 Runes（比特币区块链上的一种新的可替代代币协议）之后。

Runes, unlike Ordinals which inscribe unique data onto individual Satoshis to create NFTs, utilize the existing UTXO model to issue fungible tokens with minimal blockchain impact. This could explain why the drop in inscriptions hasn't been accompanied by any growth from Runes, as they differ fundamentally in their blockchain usage and purpose. Additionally, the decline in Ordinal inscriptions may have contributed to a reduction in transaction fees, as they previously consumed a significant portion of the network's resources.

Runes 与 Ordinals 不同，Ordinals 将独特的数据刻在单个 Satoshi 上以创建 NFT，它利用现有的 UTXO 模型来发行对区块链影响最小的可替代代币。这可以解释为什么铭文的下降并没有伴随着符文的任何增长，因为它们在区块链的使用和目的上有着根本的不同。此外，序号铭文的减少可能有助于交易费用的降低，因为它们之前消耗了网络资源的很大一部分。

Despite the overall increase in network activity, average transaction fees in USD have soared by 126%, reaching an average of $16.77. This uptick places the current fee structure in the 95th percentile historically, reflecting the elevated cost of transacting on an increasingly busy network. However, it's important to note that these fees have declined towards the end of the month, possibly due to easing network congestion.

尽管网络活动总体增加，但美元平均交易费用飙升 126%，达到平均 16.77 美元。这种上升使当前的费用结构处于历史上的第 95%，反映出在日益繁忙的网络上交易成本的上升。然而，值得注意的是，这些费用在月底时有所下降，可能是由于网络拥塞的缓解。

The total transfer volume on the Bitcoin network has decreased by 26% month-over-month, settling at $51.16 billion. Nonetheless, this volume remains in the 87th percentile for historical activity, indicating that Bitcoin continues to be widely used for value transfers despite broader market adjustments.

比特币网络总转账量环比下降 26%，为 511.6 亿美元。尽管如此，这一交易量仍处于历史活动的第 87 个百分位数，这表明尽管市场进行了更广泛的调整，但比特币仍继续广泛用于价值转移。

Bitcoin Market Health and Profitability

比特币市场的健康状况和盈利能力

Despite a slight decline of 4% over the month, 94% of Bitcoin addresses remain in profit. Historically, when this figure approaches 100%, as it did in March, Bitcoin has tended to make repeated all-time highs over the subsequent year, albeit with occasional corrections.

尽管本月小幅下降 4%，但 94% 的比特币地址仍然盈利。从历史上看，当这个数字接近 100%（就像 3 月份那样）时，比特币往往会在接下来的一年中屡屡创下历史新高，尽管偶尔会出现调整。

The unrealized profit/loss ratio currently stands at 0.58, indicating a healthy but not overly euphoric market sentiment. This suggests that investors are cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects.

目前未实现盈亏比为0.58，表明市场情绪健康但不过分乐观。这表明投资者对比特币的长期前景持谨慎乐观态度。

Bitcoin Miners

比特币矿工

Total daily BTC miner revenues have declined slightly by 5% to $61.9 million, but they remain extraordinarily high historically, in the 99th percentile. This is primarily due to elevated Bitcoin prices and transaction fees, which have more than offset the impact of the halving on miner rewards.

BTC 矿工的每日总收入略有下降 5%，至 6190 万美元，但仍处于历史最高水平，处于第 99 个百分点。这主要是由于比特币价格和交易费用上涨，这足以抵消减半对矿工奖励的影响。

Conclusion

结论

The post-halving Bitcoin snapshot reveals a network that is evolving and adapting to changing market dynamics. While immediate price fluctuations are expected, Bitcoin's underlying fundamentals remain strong, supported by increasing network usage, growing adoption, and a solid market health.

比特币减半后的快照揭示了一个正在发展并适应不断变化的市场动态的网络。尽管预计价格会立即波动，但比特币的基本面仍然强劲，这得益于网络使用量的增加、采用率的不断提高以及市场健康状况的稳健。

The halving has brought about shifts in miner revenues, transaction fees, and market sentiment, but these adjustments are indicative of the network's ability to recalibrate and continue providing value to its users. As the Bitcoin ecosystem matures and the halving's full impact becomes clearer, we anticipate further developments and insights that will shape the future of this transformative technology.

减半带来了矿工收入、交易费用和市场情绪的变化，但这些调整表明了网络重新调整并继续为其用户提供价值的能力。随着比特币生态系统的成熟以及减半的全面影响变得更加清晰，我们预计进一步的发展和见解将塑造这一变革性技术的未来。