比特币必须突破 200 日移动平均线才能扭转趋势

200 天移动平均线被认为是衡量资产即将出现的价格走势的更可靠的长期指标之一。比特币200日均线显示看涨势头减弱

Bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average (SMA) has shown a weakening bullish momentum as the US economy added fewer jobs in August 2024.

随着 2024 年 8 月美国经济新增就业岗位减少，比特币的 200 天简单移动平均线 (SMA) 显示出看涨势头减弱。

The 200-day SMA is considered one of the more reliable long-term indicators to gauge an asset’s upcoming price action. Bitcoin’s 200-day SMA shows a weakening bullish momentum, giving short-term traders little joy.

200 天移动平均线被认为是衡量资产即将出现的价格走势的更可靠的长期指标之一。比特币的 200 日移动平均线显示出看涨势头减弱，这让短期交易者感到高兴。

This is the first time since October 2023 that the 200-day SMA looks poised to enter bearish territory. Since late August, the daily increase in average price increases for BTC has not crossed $50, while it used to consistently record moves of more than $200 per day during the first half of 2024.

这是自 2023 年 10 月以来首次出现 200 日移动平均线看起来准备进入看跌区域的情况。自 8 月下旬以来，BTC 的日均涨幅尚未超过 50 美元，而在 2024 年上半年，比特币的日均涨幅一直超过 200 美元。

At press time, the 200-day SMA stands at $63,840, about 13.96% higher than the current BTC price of $56,840.

截至发稿，200 日移动平均线为 63,840 美元，比当前 BTC 价格 56,840 美元高出约 13.96%。

Short-term moving average indicators such as the 50-day SMA and the 100-day SMA are already past their peak and have been trending downward. A bearish crossover was seen recently when the 100-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA.

50日移动平均线和100日移动平均线等短期移动平均线指标已经过了峰值，并一直呈下降趋势。最近，当 100 日移动平均线跌破 200 日移动平均线时，出现了看跌交叉。

The Stochastic relative-strength index (RSI) has signaled a trend reversal from bullish to bearish on the Bitcoin 2-month chart. If going by historical data, such a move has typically led to a significant correction of up to 75.50%.

随机相对强度指数（RSI）表明比特币两个月图表上的趋势从看涨转向看跌。如果根据历史数据，这样的举动通常会导致高达 75.50% 的大幅调整。

In addition, Google Trends shows that searches for the word “Bitcoin” have been at their lowest since October 2023, when BTC was hovering around $30,000.

此外，谷歌趋势显示，“比特币”一词的搜索量已降至 2023 年 10 月以来的最低水平，当时 BTC 徘徊在 30,000 美元左右。

Adding to the overall bearish sentiment surrounding the leading digital asset, former CEO of BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange Arthur Hayes posted on X that he’s currently short Bitcoin and could see the crypto-asset crash to sub $50k level over the weekend.

BitMEX 加密货币交易所前首席执行官 Arthur Hayes 在 X 上发帖称，他目前做空比特币，周末可能会看到加密资产暴跌至 5 万美元以下的水平，这加剧了围绕领先数字资产的整体看跌情绪。

On the other hand, other market experts opine that Bitcoin will likely bottom at $55,000 before the influx of US liquidity helps re-ignite the severely lacking buying pressure in the crypto markets.

另一方面，其他市场专家认为，在美国流动性涌入重新点燃加密货币市场严重缺乏的购买压力之前，比特币可能会触底至 55,000 美元。

Although several crypto analysts seem to lean bearish on Bitcoin’s short-term price movements, the long-term bull case for the leading digital asset remains unchanged.

尽管一些加密货币分析师似乎倾向于看跌比特币的短期价格走势，但这种领先数字资产的长期看涨理由仍然没有改变。

Crypto analyst Crypto Jelle posits that Bitcoin’s tepid price action during the summer might reach its conclusion by early October before it could potentially resume another rally to the Bitcoin’s 200-day SMA Loses Steam As US Adds Fewer Jobs In August 2024upside.

加密货币分析师 Crypto Jelle 认为，比特币在夏季的不温不火的价格走势可能会在 10 月初结束，然后可能会恢复另一次反弹，因为美国在 2024 年 8 月增加的就业机会减少，比特币的 200 天移动平均线失去了动力。

Institutional interest in Bitcoin also continues to rise, as Swiss banking giant ZKB recently rolled out Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) trading and custody services for its customers. At press time, BTC trades at $56,018.

随着瑞士银行巨头 ZKB 最近为其客户推出比特币 (BTC) 和以太坊 (ETH) 交易和托管服务，机构对比特币的兴趣也在持续上升。截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格为 56,018 美元。