比特币接近历史高点 73,794 美元，目标为 100,000 美元至 120,000 美元

5 月 20 日，比特币 (BTC) 上涨 7.7%，并迅速逼近 73,794 美元的历史高点。

Bitcoin price is fast approaching the 2021 high of $73,794 after rising 7.7% on May 20. The price has been consolidating for more than two months after briefly exceeding the prior high of $69,000. An upside breakout could follow soon, with a target of $100,000 to $120,000 based on the size of historical rallies following a pullback like the one seen in April.

比特币价格在 5 月 20 日上涨 7.7% 后，正迅速逼近 2021 年高点 73,794 美元。在短暂超过之前的高点 69,000 美元后，价格已经盘整了两个多月。上行突破可能很快就会到来，根据 4 月份回调后的历史反弹规模，目标为 100,000 美元至 120,000 美元。

“After a larger decline, like in 2022, when Bitcoin moves back to the prior all-time high, it often stays there for a while,” said Cory Mitchell, an analyst with Trading.biz, who has studied every major rally in Bitcoin and broken it down statistically.

Trading.biz 分析师科里·米切尔（Cory Mitchell）研究了比特币的每一次重大反弹，他表示：“在经历了更大幅度的下跌之后，比如 2022 年，当比特币回到之前的历史高点时，它通常会在那里停留一段时间。”并进行统计分析。

“In 2017 it oscillated near the prior 2013 all-time high for four months before resuming higher. In 2020, upon nearing the 2017 all-time high, the price chopped around for a month before continuing higher. In 2024 we’ve been hovering near 2021 high of $69,000 for two and a half months.

“2017 年，它在 2013 年历史高点附近震荡了四个月，然后又恢复走高。 2020年，在接近2017年的历史高点后，价格震荡了一个月，然后继续走高。 2024 年，我们已经在 2021 年高点 69,000 美元附近徘徊了两个半月。

“A break higher out of this sideways price action could occur very soon. This is still a Bitcoin bull market. Average rallies, following a pullback like the one in April, have historically been followed by a median rally percentage of 75% (average is 91%). If Bitcoin has a historically typical rally off of the May 1 swing low, the target is $100,000 to $110,000.”

“价格横盘走势可能很快就会突破走高。这仍然是比特币牛市。从历史上看，在 4 月份的回调之后，平均反弹之后的反弹百分比中位数为 75%（平均为 91%）。如果比特币从 5 月 1 日的波动低点开始出现历史上典型的反弹，那么目标是 100,000 美元至 110,000 美元。”

The May 1 swing low was $56,500. If a median rally were to ensue, the price would be near $100,000 which is 75% above the May 1 low price. If an average rally were to ensue, the target would be near $110,000, which is 91% above the May swing low price.

5 月 1 日的波动低点为 56,500 美元。如果随后出现中值上涨，价格将接近 100,000 美元，比 5 月 1 日低价高出 75%。如果随后出现平均反弹，目标将接近 110,000 美元，比 5 月份波动低点高出 91%。

The following chart shows the price path of Bitcoin in US dollars since late 2021, courtesy of TradingView.

下图显示了自 2021 年底以来以美元计价的比特币价格走势，由 TradingView 提供。

These are typical moves higher, following a pullback, that have occurred in prior Bitcoin bull markets before another 20% or greater decline occurs. In other words, if Bitcoin continues to act as it has in prior bull markets, it could reach $100,000 or above before having another 20% decline.

这些是回调后的典型上涨，在之前的比特币牛市中发生过，然后又出现 20% 或更大的下跌。换句话说，如果比特币继续像之前的牛市那样表现，它可能会达到 10 万美元或以上，然后再下跌 20%。

There are no guarantees this move higher will result in a historically typical rally of 75% to 91%. Averages are composed of many rallies that were smaller and many that were bigger. This current rally, which is already 25% above the May 1 swing low, could run well above $110,000, or falter before reaching $100,000.

无法保证这一上涨将导致历史上典型的 75% 至 91% 的上涨。平均线由许多较小的反弹和许多较大的反弹组成。目前的反弹已经比 5 月 1 日波动低点高出 25%，可能会远高于 110,000 美元，或者在达到 100,000 美元之前会出现波动。

The historical averages provide a framework for what Bitcoin has done in the past but don’t necessarily indicate what it will do in the future.

历史平均值为比特币过去的表现提供了一个框架，但不一定表明它未来会做什么。