在美联储的影响下，比特币的宏观相关性推动价格走势

比特币与宏观经济事件的联系越来越紧密，特别是美联储的利率决策。尽管市场预计将出现重大突破，但其时机存在分歧。在有利的通胀数据发布后，BTC 暴涨 7.5%，凸显其对宏观事件的敏感性。

Bitcoin's Growing Correlation to Macroeconomic Events Impacts Price Trajectory

比特币与宏观经济事件的相关性日益增强，影响着价格轨迹

New York, NY, [Date] - Bitcoin (BTC), the world's leading cryptocurrency, has exhibited a notable correlation with macroeconomic events, particularly Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decisions. This correlation has intensified recently, as evidenced by Bitcoin's price rally following the release of lower-than-expected US inflation data.

纽约州纽约，[日期] - 比特币 (BTC) 作为世界领先的加密货币，与宏观经济事件，特别是美联储 (Fed) 的利率决策表现出显着的相关性。这种相关性最近有所加剧，美国通胀数据低于预期后比特币价格上涨就证明了这一点。

Rob Hadick, General Partner at crypto-venture firm Dragonfly, has described Bitcoin as a "macro" asset, suggesting that its price movements are influenced by the availability of liquidity in the market. Hadick further explains that any significant event impacting liquidity, such as quantitative easing, balance sheet reductions, or Fed rate decisions, will have a corresponding impact on the cryptocurrency's price.

加密风险投资公司 Dragonfly 的普通合伙人 Rob Hadick 将比特币描述为一种“宏观”资产，表明其价格走势受到市场流动性可用性的影响。哈迪克进一步解释说，任何影响流动性的重大事件，例如量化宽松、资产负债表缩减或美联储利率决定，都会对加密货币的价格产生相应的影响。

According to data from CoinShares, the correlation between BTC and macroeconomic events, particularly Fed rate decisions, has strengthened recently, coinciding with a decline in inflows into new US spot BTC ETFs. Several market observers attribute Bitcoin's subdued price action over the past few weeks to a slowdown in overall liquidity. Crypto-analyst Jamie Coutts notes that while global liquidity is trending upwards, momentum has been flat.

CoinShares 的数据显示，比特币与宏观经济事件（尤其是美联储利率决定）之间的相关性最近有所加强，同时美国新现货 BTC ETF 的流入量也在下降。一些市场观察人士将过去几周比特币价格走势低迷归因于整体流动性放缓。加密货币分析师 Jamie Coutts 指出，虽然全球流动性呈上升趋势，但势头一直持平。

Willy Woo, a prominent Bitcoin analyst, has projected a liquidity-driven breakout for the cryptocurrency in October 2024. Woo's analysis is based on the formation of a bullish ascending triangle pattern in global liquidity.

著名比特币分析师 Willy Woo 预计，该加密货币将在 2024 年 10 月出现流动性驱动的突破。Woo 的分析基于全球流动性看涨上升三角形模式的形成。

"International liquidity forming a bullish ascending triangle. Anticipated breakout before Oct 2024. #Bitcoin 2025 shall be one for the file books." - Willy Woo

“国际流动性形成看涨上升三角形。预计 2024 年 10 月之前突破。#Bitcoin 2025 将成为历史记录之一。” - 吴威利

Woo's forecast suggests that BTC may continue its current consolidation phase, within a range of $60,000 to $72,000, until the projected liquidity breakout in early autumn 2024. This timeline differs from the predictions of Mike Novogratz, Founder of Galaxy Digital, who anticipates a range breakout by the end of Q2 2023.

Woo 的预测表明，BTC 可能会继续当前的盘整阶段，在 60,000 美元至 72,000 美元的范围内，直到预计的 2024 年初秋流动性突破。这一时间表与 Galaxy Digital 创始人 Mike Novogratz 的预测不同，后者预计会出现区间突破到 2023 年第二季度末。

Philip Swift, founder of the analysis platform Look Into Bitcoin, has also weighed in on the cryptocurrency's potential price movement. Swift employs the Golden Ratio Multiplier (GR Multiplier) to gauge short and long-term price projections based on Bitcoin's adoption curve and market cycles.

分析平台 Look Into Bitcoin 的创始人 Philip Swift 也对加密货币的潜在价格走势发表了看法。 Swift 采用黄金比例乘数（GR Multiplier）根据比特币的采用曲线和市场周期来衡量短期和长期价格预测。

"The GR Multiplier did an excellent job in Bitcoin's adoption phase. We're now getting into a new phase (supercycle?! kek)" - Philip Swift

“GR 乘数在比特币采用阶段表现出色。我们现在正在进入一个新阶段（超级周期？！kek）”- Philip Swift

Swift believes that the current GR Multiplier 'high' suggests that BTC's adoption phase is nearing completion.

Swift 认为，目前 GR 乘数的“高位”表明 BTC 的采用阶段已接近完成。

"Bitcoin is coming to the tip of its Adoption progress part and getting into a extra mature part, built-in into international markets. See latest Bitcoin ETF's as proof." - Philip Swift

“比特币正处于其采用进程的顶端，并进入一个更加成熟的阶段，融入国际市场。请参阅最新的比特币 ETF 作为证明。” ——菲利普·斯威夫特

Overall, analysts anticipate a breakout from Bitcoin's current trading range and a subsequent surge in price. However, they vary in their estimates of the timing of this breakout. In the short term, BTC may target the range high of $71,000 after flipping both the lower and higher timeframe market structures to bullish.

总体而言，分析师预计比特币将突破当前交易区间并随后价格飙升。然而，他们对这一突破时间的估计各不相同。短期内，在将较低和较高时间框架市场结构转为看涨之后，BTC 可能会瞄准 71,000 美元的区间高点。

Technical Analysis

技术分析

A technical analysis of Bitcoin's price chart on the TradingView platform shows that the cryptocurrency has flipped both the lower and higher timeframe market structures to bullish. This suggests that BTC is likely to continue its upward trajectory in the near term, with the immediate target being the range high of $71,000.

TradingView 平台上对比特币价格图表的技术分析表明，加密货币已将较低和较高时间框架市场结构翻转为看涨。这表明 BTC 可能会在短期内继续其上行轨迹，近期目标是 71,000 美元的区间高点。

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are subject to high volatility and carry significant risk. Investors should conduct thorough research and due diligence before making any investment decisions.

免责声明：本文提供的信息仅供参考，不应被视为投资建议。加密货币投资波动性较大，且风险较大。投资者在做出任何投资决定之前应进行彻底的研究和尽职调查。