这就是为什么比特币的命运仍然取决于美联储

随着全球流动性的收紧和投资者在市场上寻找新的势头，宏观战略家丹·塔皮埃罗（Dan Tapiero）认为，加密货币的失踪火花可能不在区块链世界本身中，而是在传统的货币政策中。

In the present economic climate characterized by tightening global liquidity and investors' keen interest in fresh market momentum, macro strategist Dan Tapiero proposes an intriguing perspective. He suggests that the missing spark for crypto may not be emanating from the blockchain domain but rather from traditional monetary policy.

在目前的经济氛围中，以收紧全球流动性和投资者对新鲜市场动力的兴趣的兴趣，宏观战略家丹·塔皮埃罗（Dan Tapiero）提出了一个有趣的观点。他建议，加密货币的缺失火花可能不会从区块链领域散发出来，而是源自传统的货币政策。

During a recent appearance on the Milk Road podcast, Tapiero elaborated on his views, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's current restraint is suppressing what could otherwise be a breakout phase for Bitcoin and digital assets. While decentralized finance continues to grow and use cases for crypto multiply, he argues that this ecosystem still remains partly dependent on liquidity from legacy finance.

在最近在牛奶路播客上的露面中，塔皮埃罗详细阐述了他的观点，这表明美联储目前的约束是压制了比特币和数字资产的突破阶段。尽管分散的财务继续增长和用例增长，但他认为该生态系统仍然部分取决于传统金融的流动性。

Tapiero highlighted what he sees as a growing mismatch. Fiscal policy is contracting sharply, but the Fed has not yet provided the monetary easing that would normally offset that pullback. With consumer demand softening and the dollar already weakening, he says the writing is on the wall — the current policy setup may be too restrictive to sustain growth.

Tapiero强调了他认为不断增长的不匹配。财政政策正急剧签约，但美联储尚未提供通常会抵消这种回调的货币宽松。他说，随着消费者的需求软化和美元已经减弱，写作在墙上 - 当前的政策设定可能太限制了，无法维持增长。

Instead of letting the economy absorb the full weight of tighter government spending, Tapiero believes the Fed should be moving in the opposite direction to balance out the impact. “In a rational environment,” he implied, coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities would be key — but Powell’s hesitance has delayed that outcome.

塔皮埃罗（Tapiero）认为，美联储应朝相反的方向移动以平衡影响力，而不是让经济吸收更严格的政府支出。他暗示：“在理性的环境中，财政当局和货币当局之间的协调将是关键 - 但鲍威尔的犹豫却推迟了这一结果。

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Despite the fundamentals of the crypto space looking strong — from rising DeFi activity to renewed interest in NFTs — Tapiero stressed that even a thriving blockchain ecosystem can’t fully detach from broader liquidity flows. When capital from traditional markets begins reentering the space, he believes the effects will be dramatic.

尽管加密货币空间的基本原理看起来很强 - 从不断增加的Defi活动到对NFT的新兴趣，Tapiero强调，即使是蓬勃发展的区块链生态系统也无法完全脱离更广泛的流动性流。当传统市场的资本开始重新进入该空间时，他认为这种影响将是戏剧性的。

If monetary easing arrives as expected, Tapiero sees Bitcoin resuming its climb, possibly reaching his long-standing target of $180,000. He argues that the combination of favorable macro shifts and accelerating crypto innovation could trigger the next leg of the bull market, one that reaches far beyond just Bitcoin.

如果货币宽松按预期到达，塔皮埃罗（Tapiero）看到比特币恢复攀登，可能达到了他的长期目标180,000美元。他认为，有利的宏观变化和加速加密创新的结合可能会触发下一个牛市的领域，牛市远远超出了比特币。

At the heart of his message is a broader thesis: the line between traditional finance and digital assets is not as distinct as many assume. As long as monetary policy dictates the flow of capital worldwide, crypto’s biggest rallies may still be rooted in decisions made at central banks.

他信息的核心是一个更广泛的论文：传统金融和数字资产之间的界限并不像许多人所假设的那么不同。只要货币政策决定了全球资本的流动，加密货币的最大集会仍然可能源于中央银行做出的决定。