比特币、以太坊和狗狗币从上周的下跌中反弹

上周华尔街因经济消息疲弱而下跌，加密货币市场也未能幸免，比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）、以太坊（CRYPTO：ETH）和狗狗币（CRYPTO：DOGE）的价值在过去都大幅下跌星期。但周末确实让我们的价值略有回升。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), and Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) all saw some gains over the weekend, but the worsening economic picture and outflows from Bitcoin ETFs could ultimately lead to worsening crypto values.

比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）、以太坊（CRYPTO：ETH）和狗狗币（CRYPTO：DOGE）在周末都出现了一些上涨，但恶化的经济形势和比特币 ETF 的资金外流最终可能导致加密货币价值恶化。

Here's the latest.

这是最新的。

Economic realities and cryptocurrencies

经济现实和加密货币

The reason crypto dropped as much as it did last week was the relatively weak economic data that permeated the market. Jobs data was weaker than expected, and factory orders also indicated the economy could be in contraction mode.

加密货币跌幅如此之大的原因是市场中相对疲弱的经济数据。就业数据弱于预期，工厂订单也表明经济可能处于收缩模式。

While cryptocurrencies have been dubbed as a hedge against the traditional economy and fiat currencies, they tend to trade correlated to growth stocks, which you can see in the chart below.

虽然加密货币被称为对传统经济和法定货币的对冲工具，但它们的交易往往与成长型股票相关，如下图所示。

If the economy gets weaker this year and into 2025, it could drive both growth stocks and crypto values lower.

如果今年和 2025 年经济疲软，可能会导致成长型股票和加密货币价值下跌。

Volatility wins again

波动性再次获胜

Since Friday, we've seen the volatility that cryptocurrencies have been known for over the past four years. Bitcoin has become the bellwether for crypto and will continue to move wildly based on economic data, just like the stock market does. Ethereum was supposed to be a utility chain, but it's stuck waiting for regulators to clarify rules, and the blockchain itself hasn't gotten faster or less expensive as promised.

自周五以来，我们看到了加密货币在过去四年中众所周知的波动性。比特币已成为加密货币的领头羊，并将继续根据经济数据大幅波动，就像股市一样。以太坊本应是一条实用链，但它一直在等待监管机构澄清规则，而且区块链本身并没有像承诺的那样变得更快或更便宜。

Dogecoin is the one meme coin on the list and got a boost from none other than Elon Musk, who tweeted a Dogecoin picture. It may sound crazy, but a simple tweet can move markets when it comes to Elon Musk and Dogecoin.

狗狗币是名单上的一种模因币，它的推动者不是别人，正是埃隆·马斯克，他在推特上发布了一张狗狗币的图片。这听起来可能很疯狂，但当涉及埃隆·马斯克和狗狗币时，一条简单的推文就可以改变市场。

A false start in Congress

国会的错误开始

We also learned over the weekend that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the New York Democrat, left crypto off his list of priorities for Congress despite saying he expects to pass legislation by the end of the year.

我们周末还获悉，参议院多数党领袖、纽约民主党人查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer)将加密货币排除在国会的优先事项清单之外，尽管他表示预计将在年底前通过立法。

One of the catalysts for cryptocurrencies this year has been the hope of regulatory clarity for the industry after years of uncertainty. Both parties have campaigned as being "pro crypto," so some movement is expected by both developers and investors. That hasn't happened yet and could ultimately become a headwind for the industry.

今年加密货币的催化剂之一是希望在经历了多年的不确定性之后该行业的监管变得清晰。双方都宣称自己是“支持加密货币”，因此开发商和投资者都预计会出现一些变化。这种情况尚未发生，并且最终可能成为该行业的阻力。

Catalysts might be gone

催化剂可能消失了

Coming into 2024, crypto had some major catalysts like the approval of ETFs and the inflows that it brought to Bitcoin and Ethereum. The policy rhetoric has also become more positive, even if that hasn't led to new legislation. We're also seeing massive growth in stablecoin use across fast, cheap blockchains, which could unlock some of the technology promise of crypto.

进入 2024 年，加密货币出现了一些主要催化剂，例如 ETF 的批准及其为比特币和以太坊带来的资金流入。政策言论也变得更加积极，尽管这并没有导致新的立法。我们还看到稳定币在快速、廉价的区块链上的使用大幅增长，这可以释放加密货币的一些技术前景。

But these tailwinds are starting to fade along with speculation and as the reality of the market sinks in. And that led to outflows from Bitcoin ETFs of $1.2 billion in just the last eight days. That's not the kind of trend traders want to see.

但随着投机活动和市场现实的深入，这些有利因素开始消退。这导致比特币 ETF 在过去 8 天内流出了 12 亿美元。这不是交易者希望看到的趋势。

I think the worsening economy and reduction in speculative trading will be bad for crypto values over the next year, and that's what's going to drive the market. It might be positive that more activity is happening on the blockchain, but if that activity isn't using Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Dogecoin as a medium of exchange, it could hurt the value of these tokens.

我认为经济恶化和投机交易减少将在明年对加密货币价值不利，而这将推动市场发展。区块链上正在发生更多活动可能是积极的，但如果该活动不使用比特币、以太坊或狗狗币作为交换媒介，则可能会损害这些代币的价值。