分析师警告比特币价格将大幅调整，比特币必须守住 5.8 万美元

分析师警告称，如果主要资产未能保持在 56,000 美元的最终支撑位之上，比特币价格将出现重大调整。

Bitcoin price analysis reveals a crucial support level at $56,000, as stated by on-chain data analysis firm CryptoQuant.

链上数据分析公司 CryptoQuant 表示，比特币价格分析显示关键支撑位为 56,000 美元。

Bitcoin’s Greatest Support Level Is $56K — CryptoQuant

比特币的最大支撑位为 5.6 万美元 — CryptoQuant

Bitcoin has hovered around the $60,000 region for the past few days after dropping to $58,601 on Monday. The highest point BTC reached since the dip was $62,293 before settling around the $61,000 region.

比特币周一跌至 58,601 美元后，过去几天一直徘徊在 60,000 美元附近。 BTC 自下跌以来达到的最高点为 62,293 美元，然后稳定在 61,000 美元区域附近。

While this stability has allowed altcoins like Solana to see minor price recoveries, prominent market watchers believe the danger is not over yet.

虽然这种稳定性使得 Solana 等山寨币的价格小幅回升，但著名的市场观察人士认为危险尚未结束。

According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s greatest support level is $56,000. This means that any significant bearish volatility can only be defended at this price point. CryptoQuant stressed that failure to defend this threshold could trigger another major price correction.

根据 CryptoQuant 最近的分析，比特币的最大支撑位是 56,000 美元。这意味着任何重大的看跌波动都只能在这个价位上进行防御。 CryptoQuant 强调，未能守住这一门槛可能会引发另一次重大价格调整。

The ultimate support level for #Bitcoin is $56K; falling below this could lead to a major correction. pic.twitter.com/ZD9xDN6wAm

#Bitcoin 的最终支撑位为 5.6 万美元；跌破该水平可能会导致重大调整。 pic.twitter.com/ZD9xDN6wAm

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) June 28, 2024

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) 2024 年 6 月 28 日

Bitcoin Could Crash Further To $54K – Analyst

分析师：比特币可能进一步跌至 5.4 万美元

In a separate breakdown, analyst Willy Woo attributed Bitcoin’s recent retest of the $58,000 threshold to excessive leveraged positions that needed to be purged and a selling spree by miners.

在另一项细分中，分析师 Willy Woo 将比特币最近重新测试 58,000 美元的门槛归因于需要清理的过度杠杆头寸以及矿工的疯狂抛售。

According to Woo, speculators have resumed increasing their positions. He noted that the market is not yet prepared for an uptrend without a notable drop in such contracts. As a result, the analyst consented Bitcoin could further crash to $54,000.

吴表示，投机者已恢复增加头寸。他指出，如果此类合约没有显着下跌，市场尚未准备好迎接上涨趋势。因此，分析师同意比特币可能进一步跌至 54,000 美元。

Spec chain analysis: recent price action has been interesting. A retest of the 0.58 floor, a level that was last touched during the miner selling spree and speculator leverage mania.

规格链分析：最近的价格走势很有趣。重新测试 0.58 下限，这是矿商抛售热潮和投机者杠杆狂热期间最后触及的水平。

Speculator leverage has not fully purged yet, and demand is still weak. Floor could easily crack.

投机杠杆尚未完全清除，需求依然疲软。地板很容易开裂。

Price dropping to 0.54 levels would fully flush out the speculator cohort, setting up a strong floor for demand to return and begin the next wave up. Really depends on the strength of demand at these lower levels, but I’m not surprised if the floor cracks and we get one last drop before the next bull wave begins forming.

价格跌至 0.54 水平将完全淘汰投机者群体，为需求回归并开始下一波上涨奠定坚实的基础。确实取决于这些较低水平的需求强度，但如果底部破裂并且我们在下一轮牛市开始形成之前得到最后的下跌，我并不感到惊讶。

This is also supported by on-chain analysis, which shows that Bitcoin’s permanent holders are still accumulating at a rate of 72,000 BTC per month, which is down from 160,000 BTC per month in Q1 2024. However, this accumulation rate is still higher than the 68,000 BTC per month in May.

链上分析也支持了这一点，该分析显示，比特币的永久持有者仍在以每月 72,000 BTC 的速度积累，低于 2024 年第一季度的每月 160,000 BTC。不过，这一积累率仍高于5 月份每月 68,000 BTC。

Demand From Permanent Holders Slowing Down

永久持有人的需求放缓

This demand from permanent holders has been a key driver of Bitcoin’s price rally to record highs in Q1. As a result, CryptoQuant argues that the market needs higher BTC demand from permanent holders to witness an upsurge.

永久持有者的这种需求是比特币价格在第一季度上涨至历史新高的关键驱动力。因此，CryptoQuant 认为，市场需要永久持有者对 BTC 的需求增加，才能见证比特币的飙升。

Furthermore, the report reveals that U.S. investors’ demand for Bitcoin has recently dropped into negative territory. Historically, growth in U.S. investor demand has coincided with Bitcoin’s uptrend.

此外，报告显示，美国投资者对比特币的需求最近已降至负值。从历史上看，美国投资者需求的增长与比特币的上涨趋势一致。

Additionally, stablecoin liquidity is slowing down, with the 60-day growth in the USDT market cap slowing from $12.6 billion in late April to $2.5 billion in June. CryptoQuant notes that this is the slowest pace since the last quarter of 2023. The firm adds that faster liquidity growth from stablecoins is needed for prices to rally.

此外，稳定币流动性正在放缓，USDT 市值的 60 天增长从 4 月下旬的 126 亿美元放缓至 6 月的 25 亿美元。 CryptoQuant 指出，这是自 2023 年最后一个季度以来最慢的增速。该公司补充说，稳定币的流动性增长速度更快，价格才能上涨。