比特币 Coinbase 溢价缺口刚刚大幅下跌

数据显示，比特币 Coinbase 溢价差距最近已转为负值。这对资产价格可能意味着什么。

The Bitcoin price has seen a strong recovery over the past few days, driven largely by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announcing a smaller-than-expected interest rate cut.

过去几天，比特币价格强劲复苏，主要是由于美联储（Fed）宣布降息幅度小于预期。

This news has caused a wave of optimism in the crypto market, with many traders believing that the worst of the bear market may finally be behind them.

这一消息在加密货币市场引发了一波乐观情绪，许多交易者认为熊市最糟糕的时期可能终于过去了。

However, one metric that has been closely followed by traders this year is now showing a sign that could potentially be bearish for the asset.

然而，今年交易员密切关注的一项指标现在显示出可能对该资产利空的迹象。

This metric is known as the “Coinbase Premium Gap,” and it essentially tracks the difference between the price of Bitcoin as listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and the price of BTC on Binance (USDT pair).

该指标被称为“Coinbase 溢价差距”，它本质上跟踪 Coinbase 上列出的比特币价格（美元对）与币安上的 BTC 价格（USDT 对）之间的差异。

When the value of this metric is greater than zero, it means that the price of the asset listed on Coinbase is higher than on Binance. Such a trend implies that users on the former are participating in a higher amount of buying or a lower amount of selling than users on the latter.

当该指标的值大于零时，意味着 Coinbase 上列出的资产价格高于 Binance 上的价格。这种趋势意味着前者的用户比后者的用户参与了更高的购买量或更低的销售量。

On the other hand, the indicator being negative suggests the buying pressure on Coinbase may be lower than on Binance as BTC is trading at a cheaper rate there.

另一方面，该指标为负值表明 Coinbase 的购买压力可能低于 Binance，因为 BTC 的交易价格较低。

Now, a positive Coinbase Premium Gap has been observed for a while now. As you can see from the below chart, the metric started turning positive around the time when Bitcoin began its recovery from the lows of $32k.

现在，Coinbase 正值溢价差距已经观察到一段时间了。从下图可以看出，当比特币从 3.2 万美元的低点开始复苏时，该指标开始转正。

Since then, the indicator has remained in the positive territory, though its value has crashed into the negative zone today. This could potentially be a bearish sign for the leading digital asset.

从那时起，该指标一直保持在正值区域，尽管其价值今天已跌入负值区域。对于领先的数字资产来说，这可能是一个看跌信号。

To understand why this metric is important, we also need to understand how the two exchanges—Coinbase and Binance—operate in the Bitcoin market.

为了理解为什么这个指标很重要，我们还需要了解 Coinbase 和 Binance 这两个交易所在比特币市场上的运作方式。

Coinbase is the primary platform of US-based investors, especially the large institutional entities, whereas Binance caters more towards the rest of the world.

Coinbase 是美国投资者（尤其是大型机构实体）的主要平台，而币安则更多地迎合世界其他地区的需求。

So, when the Coinbase Premium Gap is positive, it usually suggests that US-based investors or institutions are buying more Bitcoin than traders on Binance.

因此，当 Coinbase 溢价差距为正时，通常表明美国投资者或机构购买的比特币多于币安交易者。

Since institutional investors tend to trade in large volumes, their buying activity can have a significant impact on the overall price of BTC in the spot market.

由于机构投资者往往进行大量交易，因此他们的购买活动可能会对现货市场上的 BTC 整体价格产生重大影响。

Hence, a positive Coinbase Premium Gap has been seen as a bullish indicator for Bitcoin this year.

因此，积极的 Coinbase 溢价缺口被视为今年比特币的看涨指标。

However, if the metric turns negative and stays there for an extended period, it could be suggesting that US-based investors are now selling their Bitcoin holdings more aggressively than traders on Binance.

然而，如果该指标变为负数并长期保持该水平，则可能表明美国投资者现在比币安交易员更积极地出售其持有的比特币。

This would naturally put a downward pressure on the price of the asset.

这自然会对资产价格造成下行压力。

It is worth noting, though, that the Coinbase Premium Gap turning negative may not always be bearish for Bitcoin.

但值得注意的是，Coinbase 溢价差距转为负值可能并不总是对比特币不利。

For instance, if a large amount of buying is occurring on Binance, it could also cause the price on Coinbase to be left behind.

例如，如果币安上发生大量购买，也可能导致 Coinbase 的价格落后。

Since Bitcoin hasn’t seen any significant bearish price action since this trend has developed in the indicator, this scenario may even be the more likely scenario. However, the metric could still be to keep an eye on shortly, as lasting forays in the negative zone have usually proven to be bearish for the price.

由于自指标中出现这种趋势以来，比特币尚未出现任何重大的看跌价格走势，因此这种情况甚至可能是更有可能的情况。然而，短期内仍需关注该指标，因为事实证明，持续进入负值区域通常对价格不利。

If the Coinbase Premium Gap remains negative and BTC continues to be unaffected, then it would imply a shift in the market structure has occurred, with Binance traders taking the lead, something that hasn’t happened this year too often.

如果 Coinbase 溢价差距仍然为负，而 BTC 继续不受影响，那么这将意味着市场结构发生了变化，币安交易员处于领先地位，这种情况今年并没有经常发生。