在特朗普的放松管制议程推高加密货币之前，比特币多头可能不得不忍受抛售

加密货币多头预计当选总统唐纳德·特朗普的放松管制议程将推动比特币今年走高。但他们可能首先必须忍受抛售。

Crypto bulls are expecting President-Elect Donald Trump's deregulatory agenda to send bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) higher this year. But they might first have to stomach a sell-off.

加密货币多头预计当选总统唐纳德·特朗普的放松管制议程将使比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）今年走高。但他们可能首先必须忍受抛售。

That would happen if the flagship token breaks below the $90,000 mark, and the risks of this are real, Standard Chartered said in a Tuesday note.

渣打银行在周二的一份报告中表示，如果旗舰代币跌破 90,000 美元大关，这种情况就会发生，而且这种风险是真实存在的。

"We think that a clean break below USD 90,000 for BTC would open up 10% of further downside near-term, to the low USD 80,000s. Prices of all other digital assets would likely follow," wrote Geoff Kendrick, the global head of digital assets research. In this scenario, it's entirely possible that forced or panic selling could amplify an ongoing sell-off currently driven by economic concerns.

“我们认为，如果 BTC 彻底跌破 90,000 美元，短期内将进一步下跌 10%，跌至 80,000 美元的低点。所有其他数字资产的价格可能会跟随，”全球主管 Geoff Kendrick 写道。数字资产研究。在这种情况下，强制或恐慌性抛售完全有可能加剧目前由经济担忧引发的持续抛售。

Although bitcoin's price briefly reached as high as $97,000 on Tuesday, the currency was trading near the key threshold just one day prior. Alongside other crypto assets, the token has wavered dramatically this year as a risk-off sentiment has taken over investors. According to commentary from FXPro, the crypto market capitalization dropped to its lowest in three and a half weeks as of Monday evening.

尽管比特币的价格在周二短暂达到了 97,000 美元的高位，但就在一天前，该货币的交易价格还接近关键阈值。与其他加密资产一样，由于避险情绪席卷了投资者，该代币今年也出现了大幅波动。根据 FXPro 的评论，截至周一晚间，加密货币市值跌至三周半以来的最低水平。

Some of this stems from the same factors plaguing stocks and bonds. Bitcoin is down over 10% from its $108,000 all-time high reached last month, suffering a downturn when investors began suspecting tighter monetary policy in 2025. Bitcoin will typically decline when interest rates are high.

其中一些源于困扰股票和债券的相同因素。比特币较上个月创下的 108,000 美元历史高点下跌了超过 10%，当投资者开始怀疑 2025 年货币政策收紧时，比特币陷入低迷。当利率高时，比特币通常会下跌。

But from here, any further downturn in crypto assets would be a self-fulfilling prophecy, Kendrick noted.

但从现在开始，加密资产的任何进一步下滑都将是一个自我实现的预言，肯德里克指出。

Spot ETF investors who have bought into bitcoin since the November presidential election now face an absolute profit of zero, given the recent price swings. That remains true as long as bitcoin remains above $90,000 — but a deeper decline will trigger investors to ditch the investment in panic, Kendrick said.

鉴于最近的价格波动，自 11 月总统大选以来买入比特币的现货 ETF 投资者现在面临着绝对利润为零的情况。肯德里克表示，只要比特币保持在 90,000 美元以上，这种情况就仍然存在，但进一步下跌将引发投资者恐慌地放弃投资。

"When prices rise, selling tends to come mostly from long-term holders taking profit. When prices fall, selling tends to come more from short-term holders selling at a loss. On-chain data shows that in recent days, 50-70% of sales have been at a loss," he wrote.

“当价格上涨时，抛售往往主要来自长期持有者获利了结。当价格下跌时，抛售往往更多来自短期持有者亏本抛售。链上数据显示，最近几天，50-70 %的销售额处于亏损状态，”他写道。

What would make bitcoin fall below the support level? While Wednesday's key inflation report will play a major role in the immediate term, bullish policy expectations could set the market up for disappointment in the coming weeks.

什么会使比特币跌破支撑位？尽管周三的关键通胀报告将在短期内发挥重要作用，但看涨的政策预期可能会让市场在未来几周内感到失望。

Since Donald Trump was elected president, the market enjoyed a rush of buying amid excitement for crypto-friendly policies. The incoming administration has pledged to overhaul regulation, pass key legislation, and never to sell bitcoin held by the government. But if such changes are made quickly, Kendrick said, investors may feel let down.

自唐纳德·特朗普当选总统以来，市场因对加密货币友好政策的兴奋而出现买盘热潮。即将上任的政府承诺彻底改革监管，通过关键立法，并且永远不会出售政府持有的比特币。但肯德里克表示，如果迅速做出这样的改变，投资者可能会感到失望。

If a correction does take bitcoin to the low $80,000s, the token would suffer a roughly 17% decline from Tuesday's high.

如果比特币确实跌至 80,000 美元的低点，那么该代币将比周二的高点下跌约 17%。

However, FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich predicted on Monday that deflating risk appetite could deepen a future decline — a negative scenario would pull bitcoin back to $74,000. To be sure, bitcoin has held its ground since Monday's low point, bolstering recovery prospects.

然而，FxPro 首席市场分析师 Alex Kuptsikevich 周一预测，风险偏好下降可能会加剧未来的跌势——负面情况将使比特币回落至 74,000 美元。可以肯定的是，比特币自周一低点以来一直坚守阵地，支撑了复苏前景。

Over the long term, both analysts still see a healthy bull case for the apex token. Since last year, Kendrick has projected that bitcoin can reach $200,000 by the end of the year as institutional demand for crypto recovers under Trump policies.

从长远来看，两位分析师仍然认为 apex 代币有健康的牛市理由。自去年以来，肯德里克预计，随着特朗普政策下机构对加密货币的需求复苏，比特币到今年年底将达到 20 万美元。