比特币（BTC）长期图表分析——预计秋季看跌

8 月 9 日，我们对 BTC/USD 长期图表的分析指出，比特币的价格正处于十字路口，在两个通道的范围内波动：

Our analysis of the long-term BTC/USD chart on 9 August noted that Bitcoin’s price was at a crossroads, moving within the bounds of two channels:

我们对 8 月 9 日 BTC/USD 长期图表的分析指出，比特币的价格正处于十字路口，在两个通道的范围内波动：

A bullish channel (shown in blue), which began forming in 2023 on the back of Bitcoin ETF approval rumours;

看涨通道（以蓝色显示），在比特币 ETF 批准传闻的背景下于 2023 年开始形成；

A bearish channel (shown in red), which started taking shape in March 2024, when the effect of Bitcoin ETF approval (which actually occurred on 11 January) seemed to have reached its peak, helping Bitcoin reach an all-time high.

看跌通道（以红色显示）于 2024 年 3 月开始形成，当时比特币 ETF 批准的效果（实际上发生在 1 月 11 日）似乎已达到顶峰，帮助比特币达到历史新高。

Which path has the price taken?

价格采取了哪条路径？

A glance at the current technical analysis of the BTC/USD chart suggests that the bearish arguments are now more compelling:

浏览一下 BTC/USD 图表的当前技术分析表明，看跌论点现在更加引人注目：

Since 9 August, attempts to return to the bullish channel have been sporadic and lacked continuity;

自 8 月 9 日以来，重返看涨通道的尝试一直零星且缺乏连续性；

Conversely, the price shows signs of “magnetism” (shown in a red oval) towards the median line of the descending channel, confirming its relevance;

相反，价格显示出朝向下降通道中线的“磁性”迹象（以红色椭圆形显示），证实了其相关性；

The growth attempt on 23 August faced resistance at the psychological level of $65k (shown with an arrow).

8 月 23 日的增长尝试在 65,000 美元的心理水平（如箭头所示）遇到阻力。

The decline in BTC/USD in late August was further impacted by Binance’s freezing of accounts linked to Palestinian military groups, undermining Bitcoin’s image as an anonymous and decentralised currency.

8 月下旬，币安冻结与巴勒斯坦军事组织有关的账户进一步影响了 BTC/USD 的下跌，损害了比特币作为匿名和去中心化货币的形象。

Under these conditions, we can reasonably expect a bearish autumn, with more signs of weakness for buyers on the BTC/USD chart. It is possible that by the end of the year, we might see a new push towards the $50k level.

在这种情况下，我们可以合理地预期秋季将出现看跌，比特币/美元图表上买家将出现更多疲软迹象。到今年年底，我们可能会看到新的突破，达到 5 万美元的水平。

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*在 FXOpen UK 和 FXOpen AU，加密货币差价合约仅可供分别根据 FCA 规则归类为专业客户和根据 ASIC 规则归类为专业客户的客户进行交易。它们不适用于零售客户的交易。

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