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上周美联储实施自 COVID-19 大流行以来的首次降息后,比特币开始上涨

Bitcoin (BTC) price surged past the $65,500 mark on Thursday morning in the U.S., reaching levels not seen in nearly two months as traders begin to feel bullish once again.
周四上午,随着交易员开始再次看涨,比特币 (BTC) 价格在美国飙升至 65,500 美元大关,达到近两个月来的最高水平。
Bitcoin’s price rally began last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve implemented its first interest rate cut since the COVID-19 pandemic, reducing rates by 50 basis points — double the expected 25 basis point cut. Now, traders are speculating that another 50 basis point cut will follow at the Fed’s upcoming meeting on November 7, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool.
上周,美联储实施自 COVID-19 大流行以来的首次降息,降息 50 个基点,是预期降息 25 个基点的两倍,比特币价格开始上涨。现在,正如 CME FedWatch 工具所示,交易员猜测美联储将在 11 月 7 日召开的会议上再次降息 50 个基点。
The rally in Bitcoin has also reignited interest in U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw significant inflows on Wednesday, with investors adding nearly $185 million to the fund, following an influx of $98.9 million the previous day. These upticks come after weeks of flat or negative inflows, coinciding with Bitcoin’s earlier price struggles.
比特币的上涨也重新激发了人们对美国现货比特币 ETF 的兴趣。贝莱德旗下的 iShares 比特币信托基金 (IBIT) 周三出现大量资金流入,继前一天流入 9,890 万美元之后,投资者又向该基金增资近 1.85 亿美元。这些上涨是在几周的资金流入持平或负数之后发生的,与比特币早期的价格挣扎相吻合。
The broader market also reacted to economic developments in China, where reports suggest that authorities are considering injecting up to 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) into the country’s largest state banks to stimulate the faltering economy. The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 3.6% on Thursday, setting it on course for its best week in a decade. European and U.S. markets also saw gains, though U.S. stocks pulled back slightly from their highs earlier in the day.
更广泛的市场也对中国的经济发展做出了反应,有报道称,当局正在考虑向中国最大的国有银行注入高达 1 万亿元人民币(合 1,420 亿美元),以刺激摇摇欲坠的经济。上证综指周四上涨 3.6%,有望创下十年来表现最好的一周。欧洲和美国市场也出现上涨,尽管美国股市从当天早些时候的高点小幅回落。
China’s move followed a decision by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) earlier this week to lower the reserve requirement ratio for mainland banks by 50 basis points and reduce the seven-day reverse repo rate by 20 basis points to 1.5%.
在此之前,中国人民银行(PBOC)本周早些时候决定将内地银行存款准备金率降低 50 个基点,并将 7 天逆回购利率降低 20 个基点至 1.5%。
Bitcoin accumulation reaches 88,000 BTC in 30 days, retail investors lead the way
30天比特币积累达到88,000 BTC,散户领跑
Over the past 30 days, the Bitcoin (BTC) ecosystem has experienced a notable surge in accumulation, with around 88,000 BTC being acquired on a net basis. This strong accumulation, sustained throughout much of September, is approximately seven times the monthly issuance of Bitcoin, which stands at about 13,500 BTC. This level of intense buying has not been seen since Q4 2023, a period marked by a rapid increase in Bitcoin’s price, according to on-chain analysts, Glassnode.
在过去的 30 天里,比特币(BTC)生态系统的积累量显着激增,净购买量约为 88,000 BTC。这种强劲的积累持续了整个 9 月的大部分时间,大约是比特币每月发行量(约 13,500 BTC)的七倍。据链上分析师 Glassnode 称,自 2023 年第四季度以来,从未出现过这种程度的强烈购买,这段时期比特币价格快速上涨。
A closer look at this net accumulation shows that retail investors, particularly smaller holders, are driving much of the activity. Investors with less than 10 BTC, commonly referred to as “crabs” (holding 1 to 10 BTC) and “shrimps” (holding less than 1 BTC), have collectively accumulated 35,000 BTC in the past month. This trend of retail accumulation, ongoing since May, highlights the increasing confidence and participation of smaller investors in the market.
仔细观察这种净积累就会发现,散户投资者,尤其是小股东,正在推动大部分活动。持有量低于10 BTC的投资者,通常被称为“螃蟹”(持有1至10 BTC)和“虾”(持有不到1 BTC),在过去一个月里总共积累了35,000 BTC。这种散户积累趋势自五月份以来一直持续,凸显出中小投资者对市场的信心和参与度不断增强。
A significant outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges is providing further support for Bitcoin’s price. Over the past 30 days, around 40,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, reducing liquidity. When bitcoin is moved off exchanges, it often suggests that holders intend to keep it for the long term, reducing selling pressure. With 74% of the circulating supply considered illiquid, this creates a bullish environment for potential future price increases. The combination of retail accumulation and reduced exchange liquidity signals that Bitcoin’s upward momentum could continue to build in the months ahead.
比特币从交易所大量流出,为比特币的价格提供了进一步的支撑。过去 30 天,约 40,000 BTC 从交易所撤出,流动性减少。当比特币被移出交易所时,通常表明持有者打算长期保留它,从而减少抛售压力。由于 74% 的流通供应量被认为缺乏流动性,这为未来潜在的价格上涨创造了看涨环境。散户积累和交易所流动性减少相结合,表明比特币的上涨势头可能在未来几个月继续增强。
While September is traditionally one of the most bearish months for Bitcoin, this year is bucking the trend. With just days remaining until the end of the month, Bitcoin is up 9.34% this month, its best September on record, and a good sign of growing momentum going into Q4.
虽然九月传统上是比特币最悲观的月份之一,但今年却逆势而上。距离月底仅剩几天,比特币本月上涨了 9.34%,这是有记录以来最好的 9 月份涨幅,也是进入第四季度增长势头的好迹象。
A gamma squeeze once IBIT options launch?
IBIT 期权推出后会出现伽马挤压吗?
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the listing of physically settled options tied to BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). While the IBIT options still require approval from the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), there is a consensus that this could attract more institutional investors to the crypto market. However, the crypto community is divided on how this move might impact Bitcoin market volatility. According to Bitwise Asset Management, a gamma squeeze—a rapid price rally driven by options market dynamics—could become a significant factor in the Bitcoin market once IBIT options launch.
美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 已批准与贝莱德现货比特币 (BTC) ETF、iShares 比特币信托 (IBIT) 相关的实物结算期权上市。尽管 IBIT 期权仍需获得期权清算公司 (OCC) 和商品期货交易委员会 (CFTC) 的批准,但人们一致认为,这可能会吸引更多机构投资者进入加密货币市场。然而,加密货币社区对于此举可能如何影响比特币市场波动存在分歧。据 Bitwise Asset Management 称,一旦 IBIT 期权推出,伽马挤压(由期权市场动态驱动的价格快速上涨)可能会成为比特币市场的一个重要因素。
Bitcoin is not a “risk-on” asset, it's an emerging global money alternative: BlackRock
贝莱德:比特币不是一种“风险”资产,而是一种新兴的全球货币替代品
Bitcoin has been incorrectly labeled as a “risk-on” asset, according to Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock’s head of digital assets. In a Sept. 24 interview with Bloomberg, Mitchnick explained, “There’s been a bit of an own goal
贝莱德数字资产主管罗比·米奇尼克 (Robbie Mitchnick) 表示,比特币被错误地标记为“风险资产”。在 9 月 24 日接受彭博社采访时,米奇尼克解释道:“有一些乌龙球
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