比特币（BTC）季节性：夏季是一个转折点

比特币价格仍然可靠地遵循其周期性。因此，新的看涨浪潮可能会形成，以揭示其看涨潜力，而夏季将在这一动态中发挥重要的心理作用。

Bitcoin seasonality shows that summer can often be an accumulation zone for bitcoin (BTC). While the end of summer has historically shown significant risks, this summer could be pivotal. The simultaneous rise in gold prices along with bitcoin rekindles hopes for new bitcoin highs.

比特币的季节性表明，夏季往往是比特币（BTC）的积累区。虽然夏末历来都显示出重大风险，但今年夏天可能是关键。金价与比特币同时上涨，重新点燃了比特币新高的希望。

Bitcoin seasonality (BTC): summer as a turning point

比特币季节性（BTC）：夏季是一个转折点

Bitcoin prices still reliably follow their cyclicity. A new bullish wave could thus form to unveil its bullish potential, and summer would have a major psychological role in this dynamic.

比特币价格仍然可靠地遵循其周期性。因此，新的看涨浪潮可能会形成，以揭示其看涨潜力，而夏季将在这一动态中发挥重要的心理作用。

In a statistical study conducted a year ago, we established the typical pattern of bitcoin variations over the year. The study of data from 2015 to 2023 led to the following conclusion:

在一年前进行的一项统计研究中，我们建立了一年来比特币变化的典型模式。对2015年至2023年数据的研究得出以下结论：

This chart shows the “ideal” evolution of bitcoin by the months of the year based on price history from 2015 to 2023. It shows that July, August, and September are generally stagnant months. A strong bullish phase usually starts from late September to December. Therefore, autumn seems to be bullish for bitcoin prices. A new stagnation phase begins between December and January, followed by a rebound in the following month. […] 62% of the time, bitcoin prices rise between (late) September and December. The average increase during this period is more than 70%.

该图表根据 2015 年至 2023 年的价格历史记录，显示了比特币在一年中各月份的“理想”演变。它显示 7 月、8 月和 9 月通常是停滞的月份。强劲的看涨阶段通常从九月底到十二月开始。因此，秋季似乎对比特币价格有利。 12 月至 1 月期间开始新的停滞阶段，随后在下个月出现反弹。 […] 62% 的情况下，比特币价格在 9 月（下旬）到 12 月期间上涨。在此期间平均涨幅超过70%。

Summer: an “ accumulation ” zone for bitcoin?

夏季：比特币的“积累”区？

The study of data between 2015 and 2023 shows that summer, on average, is conducive to slight “ rises ”. However, when we adjust the average performances for their statistical reliability, the conclusions change slightly. July appears, on average, to be a moderately bullish month but with significant reliability. In contrast, August is generally less performant and less reliable.

对2015年至2023年数据的研究表明，夏季平均有利于小幅“上涨”。然而，当我们根据统计可靠性调整平均表现时，结论会略有变化。平均而言，七月似乎是适度看涨的月份，但具有显着的可靠性。相比之下，August 的性能通常较差，可靠性也较差。

This behavior can explain why bitcoin shows a contrasting pattern during the summer months. Furthermore, the end of summer is often conducive to strong bearish phenomena. Therefore, summer often appears as a transitional phase in the bitcoin price behavior. Consequently, this transition can occur from a bullish market to a new bullish wave, or from a bullish market to a bearish market.

这种行为可以解释为什么比特币在夏季表现出截然不同的模式。此外，夏季结束往往有利于出现强烈的看跌现象。因此，夏季往往表现为比特币价格行为的过渡阶段。因此，这种转变可能会发生从牛市到新牛市的转变，或者从牛市到熊市的转变。

Towards a final bullish wave in the coming months?

未来几个月将迎来最后的看涨浪潮吗？

The study of annual seasonality allows us to take advantage of statistical anomalies. But bitcoin does not necessarily follow annual cycles. Indeed, it rather appears that bitcoin follows traditional stock market cycles lasting 3 to 4 years.

对年度季节性的研究使我们能够利用统计异常。但比特币不一定遵循年度周期。事实上，比特币似乎遵循持续 3 到 4 年的传统股市周期。

Observing the simple dates of bitcoin’s peaks and troughs leads us to several conclusions.

观察比特币波峰和波谷的简单日期可以让我们得出几个结论。

We have represented below the trajectory of bitcoin over the last two 3.6-year cycles. We have also added our current position in this cycle (blue curve). It clearly appears that bitcoin’s trajectory in recent months is, on average, close to that of the past. However, we also see that the coming months could mark a resurgence in volatility.

我们在下面展示了比特币在过去两个 3.6 年周期中的轨迹。我们还添加了本周期中的当前位置（蓝色曲线）。显然，比特币近几个月的平均走势与过去接近。然而，我们也看到未来几个月波动可能会再次出现。

Is the movement still framed?

运动还在框架中吗？

In an analysis article in May, we highlighted the risk of a correction in bitcoin prices. This consolidation now seems to be ending. The end of the bearish movement in June seems to confirm the importance of the bitcoin cycle in the current dynamics.

在五月份的一篇分析文章中，我们强调了比特币价格调整的风险。现在这种整合似乎即将结束。六月看跌运动的结束似乎证实了比特币周期在当前动态中的重要性。

The rise in bitcoin prices since early 2024 would even tend to slightly exceed its historical norm. Therefore, the immediate conclusion would be that the consolidation movement observed since March 2024 would not be abnormal, on the contrary. The reciprocal would even be that since the historical scenario is respected, we could witness a second bullish phase in the summer of 2024.

自 2024 年初以来，比特币价格的上涨甚至往往会略微超过其历史正常水平。因此，直接的结论是，自 2024 年 3 月以来观察到的盘整运动并非异常，相反。倒数甚至是，由于尊重历史情景，我们可能会在 2024 年夏季见证第二个看涨阶段。

Finally, we will note that bitcoin (BTC) price trajectory becomes less “normed” from the 25th or 30th month of the cycle. In other words, volatility increases because agents’ behavior is more euphoric. It will therefore theoretically be more difficult to make projections for 2025 or 2026 on bitcoin prices than in 2024.

最后，我们会注意到，从周期的第 25 个月或第 30 个月开始，比特币 (BTC) 的价格轨迹变得不那么“规范”。换句话说，波动性增加是因为代理人的行为更加乐观。因此，理论上预测 2025 年或 2026 年的比特币价格比 2024 年更加困难。

Towards a final bullish impulse?

走向最后的看涨冲动？

Summer is often perceived as a slack period in many economic sectors. For financial markets, this season is marked by reduced transaction volumes due to summer vacations. However, the impact of summer on Bitcoin (BTC) prices presents interesting particularities that deserve special attention. The study of the 3.6-year cycle would indeed align with this particularity of the summer market.

夏季通常被认为是许多经济部门的淡季。对于金融市场来说，本季度的特点是由于暑假导致交易量减少。然而，夏季对比特币（BTC）价格的影响呈现出值得特别关注的有趣特点。对3.6年周期的研究确实符合夏季市场的这一特殊性。

In view of cyclical phenomena, it is possible that the next peak in bitcoin will be rather brief. That is, a double peak would be less likely. But this remains in the realm of hypothesis. In our cyclical study conducted a year ago, we reached the following conclusion.

考虑到周期性现象，比特币的下一个峰值可能会相当短暂。也就是说，出现双峰的可能性较小。但这仍然停留在假设的范围内。在我们一年前进行的周期性研究中，我们得出了以下结论。

Assuming our hypotheses hold true in the future, the next peak would be around mid-2025. This aligns with the cyclicity of many other assets. However, we must specify certain conditions. To be valid, a bullish market on bitcoin should ideally be accompanied by a prior peak in volatility and rather accommodative monetary policy.

假设我们的假设在未来成立，下一个峰值将在 2025 年中期左右。这与许多其他资产的周期性是一致的。但是，我们必须指定某些条件。为了有效，比特币的牛市理想情况下应该伴随着先前的波动峰值和相当宽松的货币政策。

The trend holds, gold shines, does bitcoin bug?

趋势保持，黄金闪耀，比特币有bug吗？

In recent weeks, gold prices have begun

最近几周金价开始