由美元指数下降的驱动到夏季，比特币（BTC）到夏季可能达到$ 150万美元至20万美元

在美元指数下降之后，比特币在5月飙升了近10％，可能表明了比特币的强烈集会，而风险资产则有可能。

Economist predicts Bitcoin price could hit $150K to $200K by summer, driven by the recent US Dollar Index decline and its historical correlation with BTC.

经济学家预测，由于最近的美元指数下降及其与BTC的历史相关性，到夏季，比特币价格可能会达到15万至20万美元。

Bitcoin has surged nearly 10% in May, following the US Dollar Index drop, potentially signaling a strong rally in Bitcoin and risk assets ahead.

在美元指数下降之后，比特币在5月飙升了近10％，可能表明了比特币的强烈集会，而风险资产则有可能。

Economic expert Tomas, in a recent post on the X platform, has highlighted a critical market signal that could drive Bitcoin and other risk assets much higher this summer.

经济专家Tomas在最近在X平台上的一篇文章中强调了一个关键的市场信号，该信号可能会使今年夏天更高的比特币和其他风险资产更高。

According to the expert, the sharp decline in the US Dollar Index seen in Q1 historically triggers strong rallies in assets like Bitcoin, typically with a three-month lag.

根据专家的说法，在Q1中，美元指数的急剧下降历史上触发了比特币等资产的强烈集会，通常有三个月的滞后。

He predicts that if this pattern holds, Bitcoin could reach the range of $150,000 to $200,000 in the coming months.

他预测，如果这种模式成立，则比特币在未来几个月内可以达到150,000至200,000美元的范围。

“All you have to do is watch the dollar – is it really this simple?

“您要做的就是看美元 - 真的很简单吗？

While all the tariff/growth slowdown concerns are ongoing, it’s easy to forget that the dollar has weakened massively.

尽管所有关税/增长放缓的问题都持续不断，但很容易忘记美元大大削弱了。

History strongly suggests this is bullish for risk assets, often on a lag.

历史强烈表明，这通常是风险资产，通常是滞后。

We’re at that lag now, with stocks having risen massively since the bear market low in December 2024 and Bitcoin having more than doubled since the March lows.”

我们现在处于这一滞后，自2024年12月熊市低下以来，股票的上升幅度大大增加，自3月低点以来比特币的增加了一倍以上。”

At the beginning of this year, the US Dollar index was $108.512. In the first quarter of this year, the index slipped by no fewer than 3.93%. In the previous month, it declined by over 4.36%. Currently, the index sits at $100.424.

今年年初，美元指数为108.512美元。在今年的第一季度，该指数下滑不少于3.93％。在上个月，它下降了4.36％。目前，该指数为$ 100.424。

This shows that the US dollar has weakened a lot in recent months, specifically in the first quarter of 2025.

这表明，近几个月来，美元的美元削弱了很多，特别是在2025年第一季度。

The expert adds that a weaker dollar usually leads to higher prices for risk assets like Bitcoin and stocks, though with a delay ( often around three months).

专家补充说，较弱的美元通常会导致比特币和股票等风险资产的价格更高，尽管延迟（通常大约三个月）。

On May 8, with a single day surge of 6.46%, the Bitcoin market once again broke the crucial mark of $100K.

5月8日，一日涨幅为6.46％，比特币市场再次打破了至关重要的10万美元。

Bitcoin price today, May 9, is hovering around $108,000.

今天5月9日的比特币价格徘徊在108,000美元左右。

At the start of this month, the BTC price was $94,147.61. So far this month, the BTC market has jumped nearly 10.2%. Even though, in the early days of this month, the market witnessed severe volatility (a rise of around 2.84% between May 1 and 2 and a fall of 2.68% between May 3 and 4), since May 5, it has grown by at least 10.23%.

在本月初，BTC价格为94,147.61美元。本月到目前为止，BTC市场上涨了近10.2％。即使在本月的初期，市场的严重波动（5月1日至2日之间的增长约为2.84％，5月3日至4日之间下跌了2.68％），自5月5日以来，它的增长至少为10.23％。

In the last seven days alone, the Bitcoin price has witnessed an impressive rise of 7.8%.

仅在过去的七天中，比特币的价格就看到了7.8％的令人印象深刻的上涨。

The expert forecasts that if the usual inverse relationship between Bitcoin and the US Dollar index holds, the BTC price could reach the range of $150K to $200K by this summer.

专家预测，如果比特币与美元指数之间的通常反向关系，那么到今年夏天，BTC的价格可能达到15万美元至20万美元的范围。

The same pattern might also boost US stock indices, although the link is less precise than with Bitcoin.

尽管链接不如比特币，但同样的模式也可能会增加美国库存指数。

In the first quarter of 2025, the S&P 500 index registered a notable drop of 4.96%. In the previous month, the market recorded a minor decline of 0.54%. Since the start of this month, it has experienced a small surge of 0.96%.

在2025年的第一季度，标准普尔500指数的显着下降了4.96％。在上个月，市场的下降幅度为0.54％。自本月初以来，它的涨幅为0.96％。

Likewise, in April, the Nasdaq 100 index reported a rise of 1.92%. So far this month, the index has jumped 0.95% to $20,062.45.

同样，在4月，纳斯达克100指数报告增长了1.92％。本月到目前为止，该指数上涨了0.95％至20,062.45美元。

Meanwhile, the expert emphasises that gold often moves in sync with the dollar, not in the opposite direction.

同时，专家强调，黄金通常与美元同步，而不是朝相反的方向同步。

2025 has been a fantastic year for gold. In Q1 2025, the gold price saw an enviable growth of no fewer than 19.16%. In the previous month, the price reported a rise of at least 5.25%. So far this month, the market has shown a minimal growth of 1.25%.

2025年对于黄金来说是一个美好的一年。在2025年第1季度，黄金价格的增长不少于19.16％。在上个月，价格报告至少上升了5.25％。本月到目前为止，市场的增长率最低1.25％。

The expert warns that since the dollar already weakened, gold has likely already risen and might fall if the dollar strengthens again.

专家警告说，由于美元已经削弱，黄金可能已经上升，如果美元再次增强，黄金可能会下降。

“The dollar has already weakened massively, so we're more likely to see strength in gold and weaker returns for dollar assets (like stocks and Bitcoin) if/when the dollar strengthens again.”

“美元已经大大削弱了，因此，如果/何时美元再次增强，我们更有可能看到黄金的实力和美元资产回报较弱（例如股票和比特币）。”

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邮政经济学家预测，今年夏天，比特币价格可能达到15万美元至200k，首先出现在连锁链接上。

The post Economist Predicts Bitcoin Price Could Hit $150K to $200K This Summer appeared first on Chain Link.

邮政经济学家预测，今年夏天，比特币价格可能达到15万美元至200k，首先出现在连锁链接上。

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The post Economist Predicts Bitcoin Price Could Hit $150K to $200K This Summer appeared first on Chain Link

邮政经济学家预测，今年夏天，比特币价格可能达到15万美元至200k的$ 200K