比特币 (BTC) 涨至 108,000 美元历史新高，今年飙升近 150%

在需求增加和供应增长下降的推动下，比特币 (BTC) 今年飙升了近 150%。美联储和其他央行解除高利率也推动了这一上涨势头。

Bitcoin price hit a record high of $108,000 on Dec. 17, continuing a bull run that began in 2023. Several factors have contributed to this price surge, including rising demand and decreasing supply growth.

比特币价格于 12 月 17 日创下 108,000 美元的历史新高，延续了 2023 年开始的牛市。导致价格飙升的因素有很多，包括需求上升和供应增长放缓。

Bitcoin (BTC) price remained above $107,000 on Dec. 17, continuing a bull run that began in 2023. Several factors have contributed to this price surge, including rising demand and decreasing supply growth.

12 月 17 日，比特币 (BTC) 价格保持在 107,000 美元以上，延续了 2023 年开始的牛市。导致价格飙升的因素有多种，包括需求上升和供应增长放缓。

The price of BTC has surged by nearly 150% this year, making it one of the best-performing assets in 2023. This performance is in stark contrast to the broader market, which has seen a downturn in the second half of the year.

BTC的价格今年飙升了近150%，成为2023年表现最好的资产之一。这一表现与下半年低迷的大盘形成鲜明对比。

Several factors have contributed to this demand, including the unwinding of high interest rates by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. This move has led to an increase in the demand for risky assets, such as cryptocurrencies.

有几个因素促成了这种需求，包括美联储和其他央行取消高利率。此举导致对加密货币等风险资产的需求增加。

Data from SoSoValue shows that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have accumulated over $36 billion in assets, bringing their combined total to more than $120 billion.

SoSoValue 的数据显示，现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 已积累超过 360 亿美元的资产，使其总资产超过 1200 亿美元。

This growth indicates that Bitcoin is increasingly competing with gold for investor attention. People have been asking me about this. Yes, if you include all bitcoin ETFs (spot, futures, levered) they have $130b vs $128b for gold ETFs.

这种增长表明比特币越来越多地与黄金争夺投资者的注意力。人们一直在问我这个问题。是的，如果你包括所有比特币 ETF（现货、期货、杠杆），它们的价值为 130b 美元，而黄金 ETF 的价值为 128b 美元。

However, if you just look at spot, btc is $120b vs $125b for gold. Either way, unreal we even discussing them being this close at 11mo.

然而，如果你只看现货，比特币的价格为 120b 美元，而黄金的价格为 125b 美元。不管怎样，我们甚至在 11 点讨论他们的距离如此之近，这都是不真实的。

Bitcoin supply growth has not been strong as mining difficulty has jumped. Data by CoinGlass shows that the amount of Bitcoin remaining in exchanges has continued to fall this year.

随着挖矿难度的上升，比特币供应增长并不强劲。 CoinGlass 的数据显示，今年交易所中剩余的比特币数量持续下降。

These supply and demand dynamics will likely push Bitcoin prices higher in the long term. This demand will likely come from governments and corporations, which have seen Microstrategy move from a tiny company into a $90 billion firm.

从长远来看，这些供需动态可能会推高比特币价格。这种需求可能来自政府和企业，他们见证了 Microstrategy 从一家小公司发展成为一家价值 900 亿美元的公司。

The next key catalyst that could have an impact on Bitcoin is the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday. Economists expect that the bank will cut rates by 0.25%, bringing the year-to-date cuts to 1%.

下一个可能对比特币产生影响的关键催化剂是美联储周三的决定。经济学家预计央行将降息 0.25%，使年初至今的降息幅度达到 1%。

Bitcoin and other risky assets do well when the Fed is cutting rates because investors often move from low-yielding money market funds.

当美联储降息时，比​​特币和其他风险资产表现良好，因为投资者通常会从低收益货币市场基金中撤资。

However, the Fed may disrupt the Bitcoin price surge by having a hawkish tone because of the sticky inflation. Its main concern is that Donald Trump’s policies of deportation, tax cuts, and tariffs will stir inflation.

然而，由于通胀粘性，美联储可能会通过强硬语气来扰乱比特币价格的飙升。它主要担心的是唐纳德·特朗普的驱逐出境、减税和关税政策将引发通货膨胀。

Data released last week showed that inflation is still a big challenge as the headline Consumer Price Index rose to 2.7%. Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy price, remained at 2.2%.

上周公布的数据显示，通胀仍是一大挑战，总体消费者价格指数升至 2.7%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心CPI维持在2.2%。

As such, while the Fed will likely cut rates this week, it might deliver a hawkish outlook.

因此，尽管美联储本周可能降息，但前景可能会变得鹰派。

Bitcoin price analysis

比特币价格分析

The daily chart shows that BTC has maintained a strong bullish trend over the past few weeks. The price remains above all major moving averages, signaling that bulls are still in control.

日线图显示，过去几周BTC一直保持强劲的看涨趋势。价格仍高于所有主要移动平均线，表明多头仍处于控制之中。

Additionally, BTC has formed a cup and handle pattern, pointing to more gains.

此外，比特币已经形成了杯柄形态，预示着还会有更多上涨。

However, the chart also reveals a rising wedge pattern, a common reversal signal. The MACD and Relative Strength Index have both formed bearish divergence patterns.

然而，该图表还揭示了上升楔形形态，这是一种常见的反转信号。 MACD和相对强弱指数均形成看跌背离形态。

As a result, there is a possibility of a brief pullback, potentially to $103,000, following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday.

因此，在美联储周三做出利率决定后，金价有可能短暂回调至 103,000 美元。