CryptoQuant：本周期比特币（BTC）价格最高点处于六位数范围内

过去一周，比特币价格达到 10 万美元的呼声逐渐降温，尤其是在过去 7 天跌破 93,000 美元之后。

Bitcoin price slipped beneath the $93,000 zone during the last seven-day span, which left many wondering if the market cycle top is close. However, a prominent on-chain analytics firm has revealed that the crypto market is still in a bullish phase.

过去 7 天里，比特币价格跌破 93,000 美元区域，这让许多人怀疑市场周期顶部是否已接近。然而，一家著名的链上分析公司透露，加密货币市场仍处于看涨阶段。

Fresh from the news that the Bitcoin price calls of $100,000 are cooling off, investors are now left wondering what comes next. Some believe the market cycle top is near, while others think there is still more room for growth.

刚刚传来比特币 10 万美元价格的呼声正在降温的消息后，投资者现在想知道接下来会发生什么。一些人认为市场周期顶部已接近，而另一些人则认为仍有更大的增长空间。

A prominent on-chain analytics firm has revealed that the crypto market is still in a bullish phase. However, the firm also sounds a warning about what could happen if the market gets too hot too quickly.

一家著名的链上分析公司透露，加密货币市场仍处于看涨阶段。然而，该公司也发出警告，如果市场变得太热太快可能会发生什么。

Bitcoin Still In A Bull Market, But Blockchain Firm Sounds Warning

比特币仍处于牛市，但区块链公司发出警告

In its latest report, the market analytics platform CryptoQuant puts forward a target for the Bitcoin price top in the current cycle. According to the blockchain firm, the market leader’s price top is more in the range of a six-figure valuation.

市场分析平台 CryptoQuant 在其最新报告中提出了本周期比特币价格顶部的目标。据该区块链公司称，市场领导者的价格上限更多在六位数的估值范围内。

The major rationale behind this projection is based on the realized price valuation metric, which measures the price at which each coin was last transacted. From a historical perspective, this Bitcoin price band has often acted as an indicator of the market top in past cycles.

这一预测背后的主要理由是基于已实现的价格估值指标，该指标衡量每种代币上次交易的价格。从历史的角度来看，这个比特币价格区间往往是过去周期中市场顶部的指标。

According to CryptoQuant, the realized price metric is currently pointing to $146,000 as the possible peak in this cycle. As shown in the chart below, the price band (the red line), currently around $147,000, acted as the market top around April and May 2021.

据 CryptoQuant 称，目前已实现的价格指标为 146,000 美元，可能是本周期的峰值。如下图所示，价格带（红线）目前约为 147,000 美元，是 2021 年 4 月和 5 月左右的市场顶部。

Moreover, the holdings of new investors are yet to reach an extreme level, which was a signal in the past two market tops. As of now, the value held by new Bitcoin investors represents a little above 50% of the total money in BTC; this figure significantly pales compared to 90% and 80% witnessed in 2017 and 2021, respectively.

此外，新投资者的持仓尚未达到极端水平，这是过去两次市场见顶的信号。截至目前，新比特币投资者持有的比特币价值略高于 BTC 总资金的 50%；与 2017 年和 2021 年分别为 90% 和 80% 的数字相比，这一数字明显相形见绌。

CryptoQuant went on to state:

CryptoQuant 继续说道：

Bitcoin price tops typically occur when new investors enter the market to buy at extremely high prices, which causes them to hold a large proportion of the total value invested.

比特币价格见顶通常发生在新投资者进入市场以极高价格购买时，这导致他们持有投资总额的很大一部分。

In addition to the above, the retail trading activity is yet to hit levels often associated with Bitcoin price peaks. Historically, bull cycles have been seen to top out when BTC retail investors are accumulating coins aggressively. However, this phenomenon is still absent in the current market condition.

除此之外，零售交易活动尚未达到通常与比特币价格峰值相关的水平。从历史上看，当 BTC 散户投资者积极积累比特币时，牛市周期就会达到顶峰。但从目前的市场状况来看，这种现象仍然不存在。

It is worth mentioning that CryptoQuant expects a pullback for the Bitcoin price in the short term. According to the on-chain intelligence firm, MicroStrategy’s stock price is becoming overheated relative to the company’s Bitcoin holdings value.

值得一提的是，CryptoQuant预计比特币价格短期内将出现回调。据链上情报公司称，相对于该公司持有的比特币价值，MicroStrategy 的股价变得过热。

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

比特币价格一览

As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands around $96,500, reflecting an almost 3% increase in the past 24 hours. While this single-day rally has helped shave off some of BTC’s loss in the past week, the premier cryptocurrency is still down by over 2% within the timeframe.

截至撰写本文时，比特币的价格约为 96,500 美元，过去 24 小时内上涨了近 3%。尽管单日反弹帮助比特币弥补了过去一周的部分损失，但这一主要加密货币在这段时间内仍下跌了 2% 以上。