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虽然大多数链链指标都是为总理加密货币绘制看跌图像,但最新的数据表明,牛的运行可能还没有结束。
The price of Bitcoin has been consolidating within the $81,000 to $86,000 range over the past week, displaying a high level of indecisiveness between the bulls and bears. While most on-chain indicators are presenting a bearish image for the premier cryptocurrency, a latest piece of data suggests that the bull run might not be over just yet.
在过去一周中,比特币的价格一直在81,000美元至86,000美元之间的合并范围内,在公牛和熊之间表现出高度的优柔寡断。尽管大多数链链指标都为总理加密货币提供了看跌图像,但最新数据表明,牛的运行可能还没有结束。
Investors Not Yet In Full Panic Mode: Blockchain Firm
尚未处于全面恐慌模式的投资者:区块链公司
In a new post on X, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode shed light on how a specific class of Bitcoin holders, known as the “short-term holders” (STH), are facing increasing market pressure. This on-chain observation is based on the value of unrealized losses of this investor cohort.
在X上的新帖子中,区块链分析公司GlassNode阐明了特定类别的比特币持有者(称为“短期持有人”(STH))如何面临日益增长的市场压力。这种链上的观察基于该投资者队列的未实现损失的价值。
For clarity, an unrealized loss is one that is still on paper, as the investor is still holding on to and selling an asset (with a declining value). A loss only becomes “real” or “realized” when the holder sells the asset at a value lower than the purchase price.
为了清楚起见,未实现的损失是仍在纸上的损失,因为投资者仍坚持并出售资产(价值下降)。当持有人以低于购买价格的价值出售资产时,损失仅变为“真实”或“实现”。
According to Glassnode, the unrealized losses of Bitcoin investors have been accumulating in recent times, pushing the short-term holders toward a significant +2σ threshold. The STH Relative Unrealized Loss metric hitting the extreme +2σ threshold has been linked to increased selling pressure in the past.
根据GlassNode的说法,近期比特币投资者的未实现损失一直在积累,将短期持有人推向了显着的 +2σ阈值。 STH相对未实现的损失度量达到了极端 +2σ阈值与过去的销售压力增加有关。
However, Glassnode noted that the size of the STH losses remains within the typical range observed during a bull market. In fact, the magnitude of these losses pales in comparison to the market-wide sell-off witnessed in 2021, suggesting that the bull cycle might not be done yet.
但是,GlassNode指出,STH损失的大小保持在牛市期间观察到的典型范围内。实际上,与2021年见证的全市场卖空相比,这些损失的幅度苍白,这表明可能还没有完成牛周期。
To further illustrate this, Glassnode revealed that the rolling 30-day realized loss for Bitcoin’s short-term holders has now surpassed $7 billion, representing the largest sustained loss event in the current cycle. Despite the magnitude of this figure, it is still far less severe than the capitulation events seen at the start of past bear markets.
为了进一步说明这一点,GlassNode透露,比特币短期持有人的30天滚动损失现已超过70亿美元,这是当前周期中最大的持续损失事件。尽管这个数字的幅度很大,但它仍然比过去熊市开始时看到的投降事件要严重得多。
For instance, Bitcoin’s realized losses reached as high as $19.8 billion and $20.7 billion during the major price corrections in May 2021 and 2022, respectively. Considering that the realized losses are still well below past capitulation events, there is a chance that the market has not yet reached a full-scale panic mode.
例如,在2021年5月和2022年的主要价格更正中,比特币的实现损失高达198亿美元和207亿美元。考虑到已实现的损失仍远低于过去的投降事件,因此市场尚未达到全面的恐慌模式。
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
比特币价格一目了然
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is trading at around $84,300, reflecting a 0.3% increase in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is down by merely 0.6% in the past seven days, highlighting the choppy state of the market.
在撰写本文时,比特币的价格约为84,300美元,反映了过去24小时的0.3%。根据Coingecko的数据,旗舰加密货币在过去的七天中仅下降了0.6%,突出了市场状态下降。
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