比特币 (BTC) 价格斗争仍在继续，关键指标表明潜在疲软

比特币的实际价格面临着越来越大的压力，关键指标表明其市场势头可能疲软。

As Bitcoin continues to navigate the volatile cryptocurrency market, key on-chain metrics are revealing valuable insights into the shifting dynamics and potential price trends. In recent weeks, long-term holders have been reducing their positions, while short-term traders are increasing their buying activity. This diverging strategy is contributing to the overall market shifts and impacting Bitcoin’s price movements.

随着比特币继续在波动的加密货币市场中航行，关键的链上指标正在揭示有关不断变化的动态和潜在价格趋势的宝贵见解。最近几周，长期持有者一直在减少头寸，而短期交易者正在增加购买活动。这种分歧策略正在促成整体市场变化并影响比特币的价格走势。

According to on-chain data, long-term Bitcoin holders, defined as those holding their crypto for over a year, have reduced their positions by a significant $6 billion. This move suggests a cautious approach, with these long-term holders likely opting to secure profits or move their assets into safer positions.

根据链上数据，长期比特币持有者（即持有加密货币一年以上的人）已减少了 60 亿美元的头寸。此举表明采取谨慎态度，这些长期持有者可能会选择确保利润或将资产转移到更安全的位置。

In contrast, short-term Bitcoin holders, typically holding crypto for less than a year, are increasing their buying activity. This shift aligns with the strategies of traders who capitalize on Bitcoin’s volatility, aiming to generate quick profits by trading on price fluctuations.

相比之下，短期比特币持有者（通常持有加密货币的时间不到一年）正在增加购买活动。这种转变与利用比特币波动性的交易者的策略相一致，旨在通过价格波动交易来快速获利。

This diverging strategy is evident in the on-chain data, with short-term holders increasing their buying activity by $6 billion. Their strategy involves entering and exiting the market quickly, aiming to maximize gains within short time frames.

这种分歧策略在链上数据中显而易见，短期持有者的购买活动增加了 60 亿美元。他们的策略包括快速进入和退出市场，旨在在短时间内实现收益最大化。

One key metric that highlights Bitcoin’s current struggle is its realized price, which is calculated based on when Bitcoin was last moved, rather than its current value. The 1-day to 1-week UTXO Age Band, which measures the realized price of Bitcoin held between one day and one week, has repeatedly shown signs of resistance. Each time the market price attempts to rise above this level, it faces rejection, indicating weakening momentum.

突显比特币当前困境的一个关键指标是其已实现价格，该价格是根据比特币最后一次移动的时间而不是当前价值计算的。 1天到1周的UTXO年龄范围衡量了一天到一周之间持有的比特币的实现价格，该范围一再显示出阻力迹象。每次市场价格试图升至该水平之上时，都会遭到拒绝，表明势头减弱。

A closer examination of the on-chain data reveals that Bitcoin's realized price is facing resistance at the 1-day to 1-week UTXO Age Band. This metric highlights the realized price of Bitcoin that was last moved within one day to one week.

对链上数据的仔细检查表明，比特币的实际价格在 1 天至 1 周的 UTXO Age Band 处面临阻力。该指标突出显示了一天到一周内最后一次变动的比特币的已实现价格。

As the market price attempts to rise above this level, it encounters resistance, indicating a weakening momentum in Bitcoin's price trend. These repeated rejections suggest that further corrections may be on the horizon. Traders are keeping a close watch on this level as it serves as a key indicator in determining whether Bitcoin's price will continue to decline or stabilize.

当市场价格试图升至这一水平之上时，它遇到了阻力，表明比特币价格趋势的势头正在减弱。这些一再的拒绝表明进一步的调整可能即将到来。交易员正在密切关注这一水平，因为它是确定比特币价格是否会继续下跌或稳定的关键指标。

Another crucial factor contributing to Bitcoin's current weakness is the rising levels of Open Interest and leverage in the market. Open Interest, which measures the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, has been signaling that corrections are imminent.

导致比特币当前疲软的另一个关键因素是市场上未平仓合约和杠杆水平的上升。衡量未平仓衍生品合约总数的未平仓合约一直表明调整即将到来。

Over the past four months, whenever Open Interest has moved above the +1 standard deviation level,ܞ traders observed that corrections and liquidations followed. On September 24, there was a new development as Open Interest dropped by 8%, a sign that traders are starting to reduce their exposure.

在过去的四个月中，每当未平仓合约超过+1标准差水平时，交易者就会观察到随之而来的修正和清算。 9 月 24 日，出现了新的进展，持仓量下降了 8%，这表明交易者开始减少敞口。

This shift in traders' strategies aligns with the observations made by on-chain analysts, who noted that such decreases in Open Interest often precede market corrections. As a result, traders are closely monitoring the بازارcryptocurrency for signs of an impending downturn.

交易者策略的这种转变与链上分析师的观察结果一致，他们指出，未平仓合约的这种减少通常先于市场调整。因此，交易员正在密切关注巴塞尔加密货币是否存在即将出现的低迷迹象。

Another key aspect that has been impacting Bitcoin's price is the increasing leverage in the market. This leverage, which refers to the amount of borrowed capital used to increase trading positions, has also played a significant role in driving corrections.

影响比特币价格的另一个关键因素是市场杠杆率的不断增加。这种杠杆是指用于增加交易头寸的借入资金数额，在推动调整方面也发挥了重要作用。

Since May, the average leverage on Bitcoin's tops has been 15.7%, indicating that traders are taking on higher risk. This high leverage can lead to quick liquidations when the market turns against over-leveraged traders.

自5月份以来，比特币顶部的平均杠杆率为15.7%，表明交易者正在承担更高的风险。当市场对杠杆率过高的交易者不利时，这种高杠杆率可能会导致快速清算。

These liquidations can further drive down Bitcoin's price, compounding the pressure already present in the market. Currently, leverage levels are entering what analysts refer to as “impulse zones,” where traders aim to maximize profits while minimizing losses, but this strategy can backfire if the market turns bearish.

这些清算可能会进一步压低比特币的价格，加剧市场上已经存在的压力。目前，杠杆水平正在进入分析师所说的“冲动区”，交易者的目标是最大化利润，同时最小化损失，但如果市场转为看跌，这种策略可能会适得其反。

Another important on-chain metric that provides valuable insights into Bitcoin's price trends is the MVRV ratio. This ratio helps traders understand whether Bitcoin is being traded above or below its realized value. A dip below the SMA365 could suggest that Bitcoin is overvalued, leading to a broader market correction.

另一个重要的链上指标是 MVRV 比率，它可以为比特币的价格趋势提供有价值的见解。该比率有助于交易者了解比特币的交易价格是否高于或低于其实现价值。跌破 SMA365 可能表明比特币被高估，导致更广泛的市场调整。

As Bitcoin continues to navigate the volatile cryptocurrency market, key on-chain metrics are revealing valuable insights into the shifting dynamics and potential price trends. In recent weeks, long-term holders have been reducing their positions, while short-term traders are increasing their buying activity. This diverging strategy is contributing to the overall market shifts and impacting Bitcoin’s price movements.

随着比特币继续在波动的加密货币市场中航行，关键的链上指标正在揭示有关不断变化的动态和潜在价格趋势的宝贵见解。最近几周，长期持有者一直在减少头寸，而短期交易者正在增加购买活动。这种分歧策略正在促成整体市场变化并影响比特币的价格走势。

According to on-chain data, long-term Bitcoin holders, defined as those holding their crypto for over a year, have reduced their positions by a significant $6 billion. This move suggests a cautious approach, with these long-term holders likely opting to secure profits or move their assets into safer positions.

根据链上数据，长期比特币持有者（即持有加密货币一年以上的人）已减少了 60 亿美元的头寸。此举表明采取谨慎态度，这些长期持有者可能会选择确保利润或将资产转移到更安全的位置。

In contrast, short-term Bitcoin holders, typically holding crypto for less than a year, are increasing their buying activity. This shift aligns with the strategies of traders who capitalize on Bitcoin’s volatility, aiming to generate quick profits by trading on price fluctuations.

相比之下，短期比特币持有者（通常持有加密货币的时间不到一年）正在增加购买活动。这种转变与利用比特币波动性的交易者的策略相一致，旨在通过价格波动交易来快速获利。

This diverging strategy is evident in the on-chain data, with short

这种分歧策略在链上数据中很明显，短期内